Dan Roodt, Author at praag.co.za

Franse vra DNS vir visum

Franse afgevaardigdes het Woensdag, 12 September 2007, ‘n groot tree geneem in die bestuur van immigrante. Die wetskommissie in die Nasionale Vergadering het ‘n amendement goedgekeur wat DNS-toetse vereis voordat ‘n visum vir langer as drie maande uitgereik word. "In gevalle waar ernstige twyfel heers oor identiteit" sal diplomatieke of konsulêre personeel "aanbeveel" dat ‘n visumaansoeker "op sy eie koste" ‘n toets laat doen om sy verklaarde biologiese verwantskap geneties te laat verifieer.

Indien die amendement aanvaar word, sal die uitbreiding van genetiese toetse aansienlik wees omdat die aanvraag om familieherenigingsvisums reeds 23 000 gevalle per jaar behels. Dit mag wees dat elke herenigingsaansoek voortaan ‘n DNS-toets sal vereis. Die voorstel is deur Thierry Mariani van die regerende UMP ingedien.

Om etiese redes is die wet soos dit tans op die boeke staan streng omlyn. Artikel 16 van die Code Civil stel dit duidelik dat enige genetiese studie omtrent die eienskappe van ‘n persoon alleen om mediese of navorsingsredes onderneem mag word. Familieherenigingsvisums voldoen nie aan die kriteria wat "respek vir die menslike liggaam" afdwing nie.

Mariani het egter laat blyk dat hy bewus is van die botsing met Artikel 16 en erken dat sy voorstel "afwyk" van die wet, maar vir die afgevaardigdes is die "veilige en vinnige" manier waarop DNS-inligting identiteitsbedrog sal uitskakel, die sterker oorweging. Mariani het ter ondersteuning verwys na ‘n verslag wat die UMP onder leiding van senator Adrien Gouteyron onlangs uitgebring het waarin die duidelike toename in bedrog uitgespel word.

Volgens Gouteyron is die egtheid van identiteitsbewyse onder verdenking. "In sommige lande soos Senegal, die Ivoorkus, die twee Kongo’s, Togo, Madagaskar en die Comore is tussen 30% en 80% van alle bewyse vervals." Nietemin was daar lede van die UMP wat, soos die Sosialiste, nie te vinde is vir die voorstel nie.

François Goulard (UMP) het benadruk dat daar in die Franse reg absoluut geen aanspraak in biologiese terme bestaan nie. "’n Mens kan ‘n kind sonder meer erken selfs al is ‘n mens nie die biologiese vader nie," het hy gesê. "Om dit van buitelanders te verwag is omstrede en verkeerd." Die Sosialiste wou weet watter laboratoria in dié betrokke lande die toetse gaan onderneem. "Hoe weet ons die toetse gaan nie ook vervals wees nie?" het Serge Blisko gevra.

In Europa is biologiese verwantskap as basis vir familieverwantskap tans ook problematies. Die Britse mediese publikasie, The Lancet, beweer dat soveel as 2,7% van Europese geboortes onder "vals" verwantskap aangemeld word en dat biologiese vaderskap dus nie die kind se wetlike status tans beïnvloed nie.

Die oortreding om genetiese toetse buite die wet te onderneem is vir Franse sedert 2004 strafbaar met ‘n boete van 15 000 euro of die gevangenis. Om daardie rede gebruik bekommerde vaders klandestien die dienste van Switserse, Belgiese of Spaanse laboratoriums wat hulle via die internet nader om vas te stel of hul telge hul eie is. Die koste daarvan beloop tussen 200 en 600 euro.

French arms to Pakistan could help China

Pakistan is trying to buy French missiles and radar for a jet fighter it is developing with China, a defense journal said Thursday, and experts warned that such a deal risked the technology falling into Chinese hands despite a European arms embargo on China.

Pakistan is talking to France about obtaining air-to-air missiles from the MBDA company and radars from Thales for its version of the JF-17 warplane, Jane’s Defense Weekly said in a report posted on its Internet site.

Those missiles and similar radars also equip Taiwan’s French-built Mirage fighters, and the island’s weapons systems could be compromised if Pakistan transferred the technology to China, Jane’s said.

The journal cited unidentified Russian and Chinese sources as saying the French sale to Pakistan was "likely" to go ahead.

[…]

Alexander Neill, head of the Asia program at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in England, said he anticipated a "quite vicious" reaction from the United States if France proceeded with the reported sale.

He said there were "valid" concerns that China could get its hands on the technology, because "Pakistan is building a very solid relationship with China."

A look at the French technology could allow Chinese engineers to counter it, possibly affecting the delicate military balance between China and Taiwan, said Paul Smyth, head of aerospace studies at the institute.

[…]

Pakistan reportedly let Chinese engineers look at U.S. military equipment in the past, and experts said permitting examination of the French technology would circumvent a European Union ban on arms sales to China in place since the Chinese army crushed democracy protests in 1989.

The experts said the embargo has become increasingly porous and France has lobbied for it to be lifted.

[…]

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EU told to accept 20 million migrants

Europe must relax its immigration controls and open the door to an extra 20 million workers during the next two decades, the European Union’s justice chief will say on Friday.

Franco Frattini, justice commissioner, is to tell the bloc’s immigration ministers in Lisbon that the EU should stop erecting barriers and instead build safe pathways for Africans and Asians who risk their lives heading to the continent to find a job.

“We have to look at immigration not as a threat but—when well-managed, and that is our new task—as an enrichment and as an inescapable phenomenon of today’s world,” he will say.

“Europe has to compete against Australia, Canada, the USA and the rising powers in Asia.” He will suggest the word immigration and its “dark side” should be dropped in favour of “mobility.”

[…]

Next month Mr Frattini is to propose an EU “blue card” to compete with the US green card. Skilled workers could apply for two-year residency that could be extended. After five consecutive years living in any number of EU countries they would be allowed to stay permanently.

He is to table a law laying out minimum working standards for unskilled migrants and forming a one-stop shop for them to apply for work permits.

The Commission is about to establish a €10m information centre for Mali. Locals will be able to apply for jobs in Spain and France through a deal signed between the countries. It will be the first of several such centres in Africa.

[…]

The “reforms” could lead to a more than doubling of the EU’s foreign-born population by 2030. So he will also stress the importance of finding jobs for indigenous workers and cracking down on illegal immigration.

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Russe hou ‘Gesinskommunikasiedag’

‘n Skattige patriotjie?

Owerhede in die Russiese streek van Olianofsk aan die Wolga, het burgers aangemoedig om Woensdag kinders te maak. Dit sal daartoe lei dat klein "patriotjies" op 12 Junie 2008 hul eerste lewenslig aanskou, net betyds vir die Russiese nasionale feesdag.

Die dag van "bevrugting" sal amptelik die dag van "Gesinskommunikasie" heet, het die goewerneur van Olianofsk (900 km van Moskou geleë), Sergei Morozov, aangekondig. Die geboortesyfer in Rusland het dramaties afgeneem ná die val van kommunisme.

Die stad, wat dieselfde naam as die streek dra, is die geboorteplek van Lenin. Dit is die sewentiende grootste stad in Rusland. Dit is ‘n belangrike hawestad wat riviertoegang bied en sentrum vir lugvaart. Olianofsk huisves vliegtuigfabrieke.

Staatsamptenare en studente het Woensdag verlof gekry, nege maande voor die nasionale Grondwetfees, om te gaan arbei aan die volk. Dié aankondiging is deur die plaaslike owerheid gedoen. ‘n Aantal inwoners het by die hoofposkantoor byeengekom om gratis koeverte met die slagspreuk "Gee geboorte aan ‘n patriot" uit te stuur aan die hele Rusland.

‘n Kompetisie is ook gehou om die wenner van "liefdesverklarings" aan te wys. ‘n Selfoonmaatskappy het teksboodskappe teen ‘n verminderde tarief aan die tieners beskikbaar gestel en hulle kon lesings by die biblioteek bywoon om uit te vind wat toekomstige ouers alles behoort te lees.

Vir die kleuters was daar onderwerpe aangebied soos "Ek gaan ‘n boetie kry". Plaaslike museums het ook deelgeneem aan die inisiatief en tentoonstellings oor die onderwerp van liefde en samesyn gehou. Pryse vir moeders van "patriotjies" wat op 12 Junie gebore word wissel van televisiestelle tot viertrekvoertuie.

In die eerste helfte van 2007 het Rusland met 189 000 mense gekrimp. Die land het tans 142 miljoen inwoners volgens die Russiese statistiekdiens Rosstat.

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Dollar at edge of cliff

The U.S. dollar is standing at the edge of a cliff, and most people don’t even know it.

Data released by the New York Federal Reserve shows that foreign central banks have been net sellers of U.S. treasuries over the past five weeks, with $48 billion having been sold since late July, and $32 billion in just the last two weeks.

The U.S. runs budget deficits each year. If foreigners stop buying treasuries—or worse, start selling them—the dollar could be in big trouble.

The reduction in treasuries “comes as a big surprise and it is definitely worrying,” said Hans Redeker, foreign exchange strategy chief at bnp Paribas, one of Europe’s biggest banks.

The Telegraph reported that, according to Redeker, the numbers demonstrate “that world central banks are in a hurry to get out of the U.S.”

The nation that analysts are watching especially closely at this stage is China. Whether or not Beijing is selling its dollars can’t be officially confirmed until November, when the Treasury releases its tic data. However, top Beijing officials have been signaling for at least two years that dollar sales are increasingly imminent.

This past August, two Chinese government officials highlighted China’s massive U.S. dollar holdings (which include treasuries) and how it supports the value of the U.S. currency. They also noted that Beijing could use those holdings as a political weapon to counter congressional calls to revalue the yuan and impose trade sanctions on Chinese goods. Chinese state media referred to the country’s stockpile of U.S. dollars as its economic “nuclear option,” capable of destroying the dollar at will.

Beijing also clearly signaled that it would begin “diversifying” out of the dollar earlier this year when it announced plans to rebalance its $1.34 trillion currency reserves, which are mostly U.S. bonds. Already Beijing has created a $300 billion investment fund to use those dollars to purchase other assets in an attempt to increase its investment returns.

It should come as no shock, then, that China would now be selling its dollar holdings.

The danger, as the Telegraph notes, relates to the fact that China holds such a large amount of treasuries. Any confirmed evidence that China was no longer supporting the dollar, and was actually selling it, risks setting off “an unstoppable stampede” in which other nations would seek to dump their holdings before China swamps the market and demand for dollars is overwhelmed.

The implications of a run on the dollar due to Chinese treasury-dumping go far beyond just the value of the greenback.

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Northern Rock scramble

The turmoil in global banking hit the streets of Britain on Friday as thousands of Northern Rock customers queued up to withdraw their savings from the UK mortgage lender after it was rescued by the Bank of England.

As regulators and politicians called for calm, Northern Rock – Britain’s fifth-biggest mortgage lender – scrambled to contain the fallout after it became the first British bank in decades to be bailed out by regulators. One person close to the situation said customers had withdrawn about $2bn Friday but Northern Rock declined to comment on the figure, which would amount to 4 per cent of its deposit base.

The rescue demonstrates the risks from a decade of financial innovation in the capital markets, which allowed a small regional lender to wield financial clout far greater than its network of 76 branches would suggest.

It also shows how the turmoil in the financial system that resulted from excessive lending to Americans with patchy credit histories triggered the failure of a bank with no direct links to the US mortgage market.

Shares in Northern Rock plunged more than 30 per cent as analysts slashed their earnings forecasts for the bank. The news also dragged down share prices for other UK banks such as Alliance & Leicester, HBOS and Barclays.

The FTSE 100 saw sharp falls until US markets opened and helped soften the bearish tone. As the day wore on, sentiment soured again. The list of leading UK shares ended 74.6 points lower, almost 1.2 per cent down at 6,289.3. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 was 16.2 points lower at 1508.1, 1.1 per cent down.

In the US, equity markets pared early losses after economic data showed retail sales, excluding sales of vehicles, fell sharply in August. The data cemented investors’ expectations of at least a quarter-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve when policymakers meet on Tuesday.

The commerce department reported retail sales fell 0.4 per cent in August, excluding vehicle sales, compared with forecasts of a 0.1 per cent rise, and a 0.7 per cent increase in retail sales in July. The S&P500 was down 0.1 per cent to 1,482.45 by midday in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average of blue-chip stocks fell 0.01 per cent to 13,423.66.

Financials were among the worst performers, after Merrill Lynch, the world’s largest brokerage, warned that shaky credit markets had forced it to adjust the value of securities linked to risky subprime mortgages.

Concern over Northern Rock and the ability of UK banks to maintain new mortgage lending at attractive rates added to concerns about the housing market and the economy in general.

Under the terms of the bail-out, the Bank of England will provide an open-ended facility to Northern Rock, allowing it to access liquidity by posting mortgages or mortgage-backed securities as collateral. The rescue – finalised yesterday after days of negotiations involving the Financial Services Authority and the UK Treasury – came just two days after Mervyn King, governor of the Bank, insisted it would not intervene to bail out the markets.

According to people familiar with the matter, several banks considered buying Northern Rock. However, a deal was undermined by a shortage of liquidity and uncertainty about Northern Rock’s value. Adam Applegarth, Northern Rock’s chief executive, said the bank was not in talks with a buyer.

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Die jeugbom, demografie en geskiedenis

Normaalweg is dit moeilik om die toekoms te voorspel, ten spyte daarvan dat huidige neigings dikwels duidelik aandui dat een of ander langtermynresultaat van huidige tendense skynbaar onvermydelik is. Dit word ook algemeen aanvaar dat die vloei van die geskiedenis dikwels verander word deur onvoorsienbare gebeure soos natuurrampe, migrasie of klimaatsverandering. Dus is die vooruitprojeksie van huidige sosiale en demografiese tendense taamlik onbetroubaar, en “Geskiedenis” word derhalwe hoofsaaklik beskou as ‘n relaas oor die verlede, waar oorsake en gevolge (dikwels onderworpe aan interpretasie en herinterpretasie) net by nabetragting erken en ondersoek kan word.

Geskiedenis bly dus hoofsaaklik ‘n versameling van feite oor die verlede wat handel oor mense, volke, tale, en gebeure wat reeds was. Oor die “nog sal wees” stry politici en ander spelers heftig, dikwels sonder om die verlede of huidige toestande genoegsaam te verstaan of in ag te neem.

Daar is nietemin pogings om die prosesse wat geskiedenis veroorsaak in die algemeen te ondersoek. Op hierdie oorhoofse of metavlak word aannames gemaak oor meganismes wat geskiedenis in die toekoms invoer, terwyl daar driftig geargumenteer word oor watter prosesse en tendense belangrik is in menslike samelewings en in die omgewing, veral oor die langtermyn.

Op die metavlak is die “Groot Man-teorie” ‘n gewilde en aanvaarde teorie vir die prosesse onderliggend aan die loop van die geskiedenis. Dié teorie stel voor dat geskiedenis nie soseer onderhewig is aan die kollektiewe kragte wat deur massas mense of natuurrampe veroorsaak word nie, maar dat enkele “Groot Manne” hulle omgewing (en ander mense) sodanig beïnvloed en domineer dat hulle die gang van die geskiedenis (en dus die toekoms) primêr bepaal. Onder die “Groot Manne” tel mens veral figure soos Bismarck, Stalin, Hitler, Churchill en Mao (en verder ook die politieke filosowe wat vir invloedryke idees verantwoordelik is).

Die argument is nie soseer dat die “Groot Manne” die toekoms beplan het nie, maar dat hulle teenwoordigheid die primêre oorsaak of invloed in die geskiedenis was as dit geëvalueer word by wyse van ‘n terugblik. Dus sien mens dikwels in geskiedenisboeke hoofstukke met titels soos “Bismarck en Duitsland”, “Mao Tse Toeng se Lang Mars”, of “Ghandi en Indië in1948”, en dies meer. Die implikasie is dat Duitsland sonder Bismarck nie Duitsland kan wees nie, dat China sonder Mao onmoontlik is en vandag iets anders sou wees.

Terwyl die “Groot Man-teorie" steeds aanvaar word as ‘n metateorie oor geskiedenis, is ‘n alternatiewe teorie hedendaags besig om meer aandag te kry. Dit gebeur veral in Westerse departemente van Verdediging, en selfs in Westerse sentra wat ontsenu is na die reeks terreuraanvalle sedert die middel van die 1990s.

Die nuwe benadering heet die “Youth Bulge” (Jeugbom, afkorting: JB), en is die produk van filosowe soos Gunnar Heinsohn en Gaston Bouthoul. Reeds in 1997 het die Amerikaanse weermag die JB-teorie aanvaar as ‘n nuttige benadering om bedreigings te erken en te ontleed. John Gannon (nog ‘n proponent) sê byvoorbeeld in getuienis wat hy voor die National Intelligence Committee (‘n Amerikaanse Senaatskomitee) in 1997 gelewer het dat “The Youth Bulge [provides the ultimate] intelligence challenge for the next generation”.

Dat die JB-teorie ernstig beskou word, is vanselfsprekend as mens opmerk dat stede met verlinkse stadsrade soos London simposia gehou het met titels soos “Demography and War” met Gunnar Heinsohn as genooide spreker. Dit is merkwaardig dat selfs Westerse linkse ideoloë, wat die indiwidu as die onaantasbare rolspeler in beskawing beskou, JB as ‘n faktor in Westerse sekuriteit kan beskou. Veral inaggenome dat JB uiteraard kollektiewe gedrag deur anderskleurige of minderheidsgroepe se “jeugdiges” in Europa is.

Soms word daar eufemisties na JB verwys om dit as polities beskaaf voor te hou, iets wat dit definitief nie is nie. In dié opsig is die interpretasie wat voorgehou word dat die onluste in Frankryk sedert 2005 kollektiewe gedrag deur indiwiduele Moslemjeugdiges met geldige griewe is, eerder as die gevolg van JB wat deur bevolkingsgroei in die banlieues (voorstede) rondom Parys en ander stede veroorsaak is.

Onder al die "aanvaarbare" redes wat vir die onluste verskaf is, is daar nie ‘n JB nie maar eufemisties soms vae verwysings na Moslemghettos in die banlieues en groot getalle radikale “jeudiges” wat as gevolg van onvriendelike sosiale omstandighede rebelleer. "Jeudiges" is natuurlik op sigself ‘n term wat gebruik word om etno-kulturele- en rasseverskille te verbloem. Dié soort politieke korrektheid verhoed nugtere denke om die onluste te verstaan en in die toekoms te vermy, maar dit is die prys van moderne selfbedrog. Selfs in Heinsohn se werk is daar nie veel verwysings na onluste en probleme in moderne Europa nie. Dit is egter myns insiens ‘n fout om die uitwerking van ‘n JB in sommige Europese lande soos Denemarke, Frankryk, Holland en Engeland te ontken as jy die stabiliteit van daardie samelewings oor die langer termyn wil verstaan.

Wat is die vooruitsig in Frankryk, of in Denemarke? Wel, dit kan mens probeer vasstel deur te tel, en ek is seker dat die Franse en Dene en andere in die geheim hard besig is om te tel en om die godsdienstige karakter van die onluste met regeringsbeleid (immigrasie en assimilasie) te probeer rym.

Wat is ‘n JB?

Die streng definisie is dat ‘n JB “gebeur” as 30% tot 40% van die mans in ‘n gemeenskap in die “vegtersouderdomsgroep” tussen 15 en 30 jaar behoort. JB volg op ‘n “kinderbom” wanneer ten minste een derde van alle mans kinders onder 14 jaar oud is.

Waarom is dit ‘n probleem?

Basies omdat jong mans hulle ambisies as onbereikbaar beskou in ‘n omgewing met baie mededinging as gevolg van JB. Jong mans vind uit dat hulle demografies oortollig is, dat hulle nie kan werk kry nie, en dat ‘n (wettige) sekslewe onmoontlik is sonder ‘n toekoms waar hulle inkomste kan verdien om vir kinders te sorg. Daar is uitlaatkleppe vir die frustrasies. Die “oortollige” jong mans kan emigreer, of kan met kriminele gedrag bates verkry, of hulle kan natuurlik met revolusie, burgeroorlog of selfs kolonisering die bates van ouer mans of ander gemeenskappe steel of bekom.

Die uitwerking van JB is in verskeie gevalle ondersoek. Dit word nou algemeen aanvaar dat die oorlog tussen 1981 en 1992 in El Salvador (met 70000 ongevalle) die direkte gevolg van ‘n JB was. Tussen 1960 en 1975 het vroue in die land gemiddeld elk amper 7 kinders gebaar, die bevolking het gegroei van 2.5 miljoen tot 5 miljoen, en teen 1970 was een derde van mans onder 15. Dieselfde soort analise dui aan dat oorloë in Sri Lanka, eers ‘n Sinhalese en toe ‘n Tamoelguerilla-oorlog, voorafgegaan is deur ‘n JB. Nog ander gevalle sluit Libanon, Iran, en selfs Japan voor die Tweede Wêreldoorlog in.

Die ironie van JB is dat terwyl vredesaktiviste ploegskare, vrede en vol mae preek, dit juis dikwels vrede (en vol mae) is wat JB en daarna groot aantalle honger jong mans baar wat dan oorlog veroorsaak. Ek dink dat ‘n mens Suid-Afrika in die tydperk 1950-1970 op dieselfde manier behoort te beoordeel. Vrede en voorspoed en die ekonomiese en maatskaplike toestande asook beter mediese en ander sosiale dienste onder veral die swart bevolking, wat (ironies genoeg) deur wit politici geskep is, het uiteindelik ‘n swart JB gebaar wat die einste wit regering en gemeenskap ondermyn het.

Heinsohn skryf dat miskien die belangrikste gebeurtenis in die moderne wêreld se geskiedenis plaasgevind het met ‘n edik deur Pous Innocentius VIII (1484-1492) wat geboortebeperking onder Katolieke (in Europa) met die dood strafbaar gemaak het. Die aantal kinders per vrou het hierna toegeneem van tusssen 2 en 3 tot ongeveer 8. Binne enkele dekades het die gepaardgaande JB afgereken met ‘n Moslembedreiging, oor oseane geseil om die Amerikas te verken en te koloniseer, en om Afrika geseil om met Indië handel te dryf.

Die JB sou honderde jare duur, Europa se wêreldoorheersing veroorsaak, en sou eers na die Eerste Wêreldoorlog uitgewoed wees. Die Tweede Wêreldoorlog het Europese oorheersing finaal geknak, en hierna het Europeërs nog nie weer ‘n oorlog gewen nie. Die sogenaamde Baby-boom van die na-oorlogse jare onder Europeërs en Amerikaners is in der waarheid maar ‘n flou demografiese eggo vergeleke met die JB tussen 1500 en 1918.

Wat beteken ‘n JB in ander gevalle?

Kom ons kyk na Irak. Vandag is die bevolking 26 miljoen, en vroue baar elk ‘n gemiddelde 4,80 kinders. Tot 2020, word geprojekteer, sal ten minste 350 000 jong mans elke jaar die ouderdom van 15 jaar bereik, terwyl daar net werk en bates vir ongeveer 150 000 sal wees. Die ander 200 000 is demografies oortollig en dus reeds geradikaliseer en gereed vir oorlog. Dit is ‘n miljoen elke 5 jaar. Daar is steeds Amerikaners wat glo dat hulle die oorlog in Irak kan wen op ‘n morele manier en met ‘n “menslike benadering”. Dit wil sê, sonder om toestande te skep wat die demografie en JB sal omkeer met hongersnood of ‘n verskroeide-aardebeleid.

Ander wêrelddele is soortgelyk besig om ‘n JB in die gesig te staar teen 2020. Dit sluit Soedan, Pakistan, en Palestina in. Andersins is daar ander lande wat nou baie meer vreedsaam is nadat ‘n JB uitgewoed is, byvoorbeeld Libië, Algerië en Tunisië.

Die globale distribusie van mans in die ouderdomsgroep tussen 15 en 30 vertel verder ‘n interessante storie. In Europa neem dit af van 89 miljoen in 2006 tot 71 miljoen in 2020 (en meeste van die jeugdiges is of enkelkinders of enigste seuns). In Afrika neem dit toe van 160 miljoen tot 182 miljoen oor dieselfde tydperk. In die Moslemwêreld neem dit toe vanaf 280 miljoen tot 300 miljoen terwyl dit in die Weste (Noord-Amerika, Australasië en Europa) afneem van 128 miljoen tot 115 miljoen. Die Moslemwêreld ervaar tans ‘n JB, en die einde hiervan is nog nie in sig nie en kan trouens eeue duur. Teenoor Wes-Europa se babadroogte en demografiese ondergang is dit van geskiedkundige belang. Op wie gaan u wed? En in watter mate veroorsaak ‘n kultuur of ‘n godsdiens ‘n JB en uiteindelik oorheersing oor verslane vyande en beslag van hulle bates?

Daar is ‘n paar paradokse in die JB-fenomeen. Dit is ‘n sosiale en demokratiese reg om 7 of meer kinders groot te maak (vra maar vir Jacob Zuma), selfs as die gedrag kollektief is, ‘n JB veroorsaak en oorlog baar vir ander se bates in die volgende geslag. Paradoksaal is dit verkeerd vir ‘n JB om minderhede en ander slagoffers uit te wis of van hulle bates te ontneem, selfs al is dit skynbaar onvermydelik, en geen minderheid kan aksies neem om ‘n JB in ‘n vyandiggesinde meerderheid te verhoed nie Nog meer paradoksaal kan dit gebeur dat ‘n minderheid (soos in Suid-Afrika) die ekonomiese en sosiale klimaat self skep wat ‘n JB veroorsaak oor ‘n tydperk van twintig of dertig jaar. Die gevolge is soveel later eers waar te neem sodat die verband met aanvanklike oorsake nie verstaan of ingesien word nie.

Westerse insigte het ‘n paar voorstelle hoe om ‘n JB te hanteer. Ten eerste moet ‘n JB geïsoleer word om sy natuurlike gang te gaan. Ten tweede moet alle hulp (en gedrag) wat demografiese bewapening wat deur ‘n JB veroorsaak word, afgesny word. Ten derde moet ‘n JB eerder in ‘n burgeroorlog teen homself gedraai word om sodanig uitgewoed te word, en laastens, moet toestande nie verbeter word nie tot die JB verby is (selfs al neem dit baie dekades). Opgesom is dit ‘n immorele lys voorstelle, maar Westerse lande sal hopelik immorele selfbehoud bo morele ondergang verkies, alhoewel dit nie altyd so duidelik is nie.

Hierby wil ek ook vra: Waar is die “goedvoelteorie” van geskiedenis wat gewoonlik deur linksgesinde meningsvormers aangehang word en wat voorhou dat mense inherent goed en vredeliewend is? In dié opsig kan ek net opmerk dat Margaret Thatcher eenkeer gesê het dat die feite van die lewe konserwatief is. En hierby wil ek voeg dat indiwidue nie in ‘n vakuum leef nie, maar meegesleur word deur die fisiese omstandighede waarin hulle leef, en waaraan hulle soms nie kan verander nie. Daarom moet toestande geskep word om te oorleef. Die Voortrekkers het dit uiteindelik glashelder in hulle konteks begryp. Maar besef mense dit nog vandag?

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Chinese to equip Nigerian schools

The Chinese Embassy on Wednesday in Abuja said it was prepared to equip selected secondary schools in Nigeria with facilities to aid the teaching and learning of Chinese language.

The embassy’s Cultural Attache, Mr Jiang Weiming, announced the decision at a ceremony marking the commencement of an education and cultural collaboration between Nigeria and China.

Weiming said through the collaboration, the embassy would equip and establish Chinese classes and train teachers in the chosen schools.

He also said the understanding of the language would improve the existing relationship between the two countries as well as enhance the appreciation of the Chinese culture by Nigerians.

In a remark at the ceremony, FCTA Education Secretary, Mrs Felicia Olajide, said it was gratifying that both countries were exploring the possibilities of building stronger ties through education and culture.

Olajide said that the potential areas of cooperation transcended culture and education. “Industrial development can also be explored for the benefit of both nations,’’ she said.

Centcom chief derided Petraeus

In sharp contrast to the lionisation of Gen. David Petraeus by members of the U.S. Congress during his testimony this week, Petraeus’s superior, Admiral William Fallon, chief of the Central Command (CENTCOM), derided Petraeus as a sycophant during their first meeting in Baghdad last March, according to Pentagon sources familiar with reports of the meeting.

Fallon told Petraeus that he considered him to be "an ass-kissing little chickenshit" and added, "I hate people like that", the sources say. That remark reportedly came after Petraeus began the meeting by making remarks that Fallon interpreted as trying to ingratiate himself with a superior.

That extraordinarily contentious start of Fallon’s mission to Baghdad led to more meetings marked by acute tension between the two commanders. Fallon went on develop his own alternative to Petraeus’s recommendation for continued high levels of U.S. troops in Iraq during the summer.

The enmity between the two commanders became public knowledge when the Washington Post reported Sep. 9 on intense conflict within the administration over Iraq. The story quoted a senior official as saying that referring to "bad relations" between them is "the understatement of the century".

Fallon’s derision toward Petraeus reflected both the CENTCOM commander’s personal distaste for Petraeus’s style of operating and their fundamental policy differences over Iraq, according to the sources.

The policy context of Fallon’s extraordinarily abrasive treatment of his subordinate was Petraeus’s agreement in February to serve as front man for the George W. Bush administration’s effort to sell its policy of increasing U.S. troop strength in Iraq to Congress.

In a highly unusual political role for an officer who had not yet taken command of a war, Petraeus was installed in the office of Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican from Kentucky, in early February just before the Senate debated Bush’s troop increase. According to a report in The Washington Post Feb. 7, senators were then approached on the floor and invited to go McConnell’s office to hear Petraeus make the case for the surge policy.

Fallon was strongly opposed to Petraeus’s role as pitch man for the surge policy in Iraq adopted by Bush in December as putting his own interests ahead of a sound military posture in the Middle East and Southwest Asia — the area for which Fallon’s CENTCOM is responsible.

The CENTCOM commander believed the United States should be withdrawing troops from Iraq urgently, largely because he saw greater dangers elsewhere in the region. "He is very focused on Pakistan," said a source familiar with Fallon’s thinking, "and trying to maintain a difficult status quo with Iran."

By the time Fallon took command of CENTCOM in March, Pakistan had become the main safe haven for Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda to plan and carry out its worldwide operations, as well as being an extremely unstable state with both nuclear weapons and the world’s largest population of Islamic extremists.

Plans for continued high troop levels in Iraq would leave no troops available for other contingencies in the region.

Fallon was reported by the New York Times to have been determined to achieve results "as soon as possible". The notion of a long war, in contrast, seemed to connote an extended conflict in which Iraq was but a chapter.

Fallon also expressed great scepticism about the basic assumption underlying the surge strategy, which was that it could pave the way for political reconciliation in Iraq. In the lead story Sep. 9, The Washington Post quoted a "senior administration official" as saying that Fallon had been "saying from Day One, ‘This isn’t working.’ "

One of Fallon’s first moves upon taking command of CENTCOM was to order his subordinates to avoid the term "long war" — a phrase Bush and Secretary of Defence Robert M. Gates had used to describe the fight against terrorism.

Fallon was signaling his unhappiness with the policy of U.S. occupation of Iraq for an indeterminate period. Military sources explained that Fallon was concerned that the concept of a long war would alienate Middle East publics by suggesting that U.S. troops would remain in the region indefinitely.

During the summer, according to the Post Sep. 9 report, Fallon began to develop his own plans for redefine the U.S. mission in Iraq, including a plan for withdrawal of three-quarters of the U.S. troop strength by the end of 2009.

The conflict between Fallon and Petraeus over Iraq came to a head in early September. According to the Post story, Fallon expressed views on Iraq that were sharply at odds with those of Petraeus in a three-way conversation with Bush on Iraq the previous weekend. Petraeus argued for keeping as many troops in Iraq for as long as possible to cement any security progress, but Fallon argued that a strategic withdrawal from Iraq was necessary to have sufficient forces to deal with other potential threats in the region.

Fallon’s presentation to Bush of the case against Petraeus’s recommendation for keeping troop levels in Iraq at the highest possible level just before Petraeus was to go public with his recommendations was another sign that Petraeus’s role as chief spokesperson for the surge policy has created a deep rift between him and the nation’s highest military leaders. Bush presumably would not have chosen to invite an opponent of the surge policy to make such a presentation without lobbying by the top brass.

Fallon had a "visceral distaste" for what he regarded as Petraeus’s sycophantic behaviour in general, which had deeper institutional roots, according to a military source familiar with his thinking.

Fallon is a veteran of 35 years in the Navy, operating in an institutional culture in which an officer is expected to make enemies in the process of advancement. "If you are Navy captain and don’t have two or three enemies, you’re not doing your job," says the source.

Fallon acquired a reputation for a willingness to stand up to powerful figures during his tenure as commander in chief of the Pacific Command from February 2005 to March 2007. He pushed hard for a conciliatory line toward and China, which put him in conflict with senior military and civilian officials with a vested interest in pointing to China as a future rival and threat.

He demonstrated his independence from the White House when he refused in February to go along with a proposal to send a third naval carrier task force to the Persian Gulf, as reported by IPS in May. Fallon questioned the military necessity for the move, which would have signaled to Iran a readiness to go to war. Fallon also privately vowed that there would be no war against Iran on his watch, implying that he would quit rather than accept such a policy.

A crucial element of Petraeus’s path of advancement in the Army, on the other hand, was through serving as an aide to senior generals. He was assistant executive officer to the Army Chief of Staff, Gen. Carl Vuono, and later executive assistant to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Henry Shelton. His experience taught him that cultivating senior officers is the key to success.

The contrasting styles of the two men converged with their conflict over Iraq to produce one of the most intense clashes between U.S. military leaders in recent history.

Polisiegeweld teen Vlaamse nasionaliste

Filip Dewinter word weggelei

‘n Ordelike en vreedsame byeenkoms op die Brusselse Schumanplein teen die islamisering van België waaraan ook ‘n aantal Vlaamse en Europese parlementslede deelgeneem het, is Dinsdag met buitengewone hardhandigheid uiteengejaag deur die polisie. Volgens wat berig word was nie een van die polisielede Nederlands magtig nie, maar dit het hulle egter nie verhoed om deelnemers in boeie te slaan en weg te neem nie.

Onder die arrestasies was dié van partyvoorsitter van Vlaams Belang, Frank Vanhecke, asook bekende gesig, Filip Dewinter. Kennelik voel die Belgiese owerhede dat immigrante nie blootgestel behoort te word aan sulke kritiek van inwoners nie.

Anti-islamdeelnemer teen die grond

Klaarblyklik word Vlaamse nasionaliste ook beskou as vrye wild en beledigings van "vuil Vlaming" is in Frans gehoor toe die ordedienste op die byeenkoms toegesak het. Behalwe die Vlaamse verteenwoordigers was daar ook parlementslede uit Frankryk en Italië teenwoordig.

Die enkele grootste Vlaamse party, Vlaams Belang, het hul skok en verontwaardiging uitgespreek oor die gebeure en gesê dat hulle fel protes in die nasionale en Europese parlemente sal aanteken oor die inperking van demokratiese regte en vryhede in die land.

Die party het voorts gesê dat vrye meningsuiting wat deur intimididasie en geweld onderdruk word, nie in in 2007 in die Europese hoofstad geduld behoort te word nie. Regsgeleerdes versamel ondertussen getuienis oor die beserings wat deur deelnemers opgedoen is as gevolg van polisiegeweld. Vlaams Belang beoog om nie net ‘n klag in te dien by die vervolgingsgesag nie, maar ook by die Centrum voor Gelijkheid van Kansen en Racismebestrijding (CGKR).

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