Stockholm is at once Europe’s least polluted city and its most global city. It has also been rated first of non-US cities for transforming knowledge into business. According to many people, the Stockholm Marathon is the best marathon in the world.
Category: International news
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Internet 10 000 times faster?
THE internet could soon be made obsolete. The scientists who pioneered it have now built a lightning-fast replacement capable of downloading entire feature films within seconds.At speeds about 10,000 times faster than a typical broadband connection, “the grid” will be able to send the entire Rolling Stones back catalogue from Britain to Japan in less than two seconds.
The latest spin-off from Cern, the particle physics centre that created the web, the grid could also provide the kind of power needed to transmit holographic images; allow instant online gaming with hundreds of thousands of players; and offer high-definition video telephony for the price of a local call.
David Britton, professor of physics at Glasgow University and a leading figure in the grid project, believes grid technologies could “revolutionise” society. “With this kind of computing power, future generations will have the ability to collaborate and communicate in ways older people like me cannot even imagine,” he said.
The power of the grid will become apparent this summer after what scientists at Cern have termed their “red button” day – the switching-on of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the new particle accelerator built to probe the origin of the universe. The grid will be activated at the same time to capture the data it generates.
Cern, based near Geneva, started the grid computing project seven years ago when researchers realised the LHC would generate annual data equivalent to 56m CDs – enough to make a stack 40 miles high.
This meant that scientists at Cern – where Sir Tim Berners-Lee invented the web in 1989 – would no longer be able to use his creation for fear of causing a global collapse.
This is because the internet has evolved by linking together a hotchpotch of cables and routing equipment, much of which was originally designed for telephone calls and therefore lacks the capacity for high-speed data transmission.
By contrast, the grid has been built with dedicated fibre optic cables and modern routing centres, meaning there are no outdated components to slow the deluge of data. The 55,000 servers already installed are expected to rise to 200,000 within the next two years.
Professor Tony Doyle, technical director of the grid project, said: “We need so much processing power, there would even be an issue about getting enough electricity to run the computers if they were all at Cern. The only answer was a new network powerful enough to send the data instantly to research centres in other countries.”
That network, in effect a parallel internet, is now built, using fibre optic cables that run from Cern to 11 centres in the United States, Canada, the Far East, Europe and around the world.
One terminates at the Rutherford Appleton laboratory at Harwell in Oxfordshire.
From each centre, further connections radiate out to a host of other research institutions using existing high-speed academic networks.
It means Britain alone has 8,000 servers on the grid system – so that any student or academic will theoretically be able to hook up to the grid rather than the internet from this autumn.
Ian Bird, project leader for Cern’s high-speed computing project, said grid technology could make the internet so fast that people would stop using desktop computers to store information and entrust it all to the internet.
“It will lead to what’s known as cloud computing, where people keep all their information online and access it from anywhere,” he said.
Computers on the grid can also transmit data at lightning speed. This will allow researchers facing heavy processing tasks to call on the assistance of thousands of other computers around the world. The aim is to eliminate the dreaded “frozen screen” experienced by internet users who ask their machine to handle too much information.
The real goal of the grid is, however, to work with the LHC in tracking down nature’s most elusive particle, the Higgs boson. Predicted in theory but never yet found, the Higgs is supposed to be what gives matter mass.
The LHC has been designed to hunt out this particle – but even at optimum performance it will generate only a few thousand of the particles a year. Analysing the mountain of data will be such a large task that it will keep even the grid’s huge capacity busy for years to come.
Although the grid itself is unlikely to be directly available to domestic internet users, many telecoms providers and businesses are already introducing its pioneering technologies. One of the most potent is so-called dynamic switching, which creates a dedicated channel for internet users trying to download large volumes of data such as films. In theory this would give a standard desktop computer the ability to download a movie in five seconds rather than the current three hours or so.
Additionally, the grid is being made available to dozens of other academic researchers including astronomers and molecular biologists.
It has already been used to help design new drugs against malaria, the mosquito-borne disease that kills 1m people worldwide each year. Researchers used the grid to analyse 140m compounds – a task that would have taken a standard internet-linked PC 420 years.
“Projects like the grid will bring huge changes in business and society as well as science,” Doyle said.
“Holographic video conferencing is not that far away. Online gaming could evolve to include many thousands of people, and social networking could become the main way we communicate.
“The history of the internet shows you cannot predict its real impacts but we know they will be huge.”
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Belgian invents ‘Holocaust’ tale
A Belgian woman whose tale of survival with a pack of wolves in Nazi-occupied Europe became a hit film has revealed that she invented the story.Monique De Wael, who adopted the pseudonym Misha Defonseca, also admitted that she was not Jewish.
Her revelations came in an interview with the Belgian daily Le Soir, which said more than six million people had already seen Surviving With Wolves.
"It’s not actual reality, but it was my reality," she told Le Soir.
"It was my way of surviving… I seek forgiveness from those who feel betrayed, but I implore them to put themselves in the position of a little four-year-old girl who has lost everything, who has to survive."
‘Different life’
The story, presented as autobiographical, tells of a little Jewish girl whose parents are arrested and deported by the Nazis in 1941.
She goes in search of them across Belgium, Germany and Poland, with only the wolves for company. The book was first published in 1997.
In reality, De Wael says her non-Jewish parents were in the resistance but were indeed deported by the Nazis.
She says she then stayed with her grandfather and was "treated badly".
"It’s true that I’ve always felt Jewish… it’s true that I’ve always created a different life for myself, a life that cut me off from my family, a life far from the people I hated," she said.
Her true story came to light after suspicions were voiced in Belgium about her tale, prompting Le Soir to seek clarifications from her.
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Europe divided over Kosovo
But while the four major EU powers – Britain, France, Germany, and Italy – announced they would recognise the new state, Spain and several other countries which have problems with their own separatist groups said they would not do so.
Russia warned it would set a dangerous precedent for separatist groups worldwide.
Ninety per cent of Kosovo’s two million people are ethnic Albanian – mostly secular Muslims – who saw no reason to be part of Christian Orthodox Serbia.
As word of the recognition spread, cheering ethnic Albanians poured into the streets of Pristina.
But tensions flared in northern Kosovo, home to most of the territory’s minority Serbs.
An explosion damaged a UN vehicle outside the ethnically divided town of Kosovska Mitrovica, where thousands of Serbs demonstrated, chanting "This is Serbia!"
Serbia is preparing to ask the UN Security Council to condemn Kosovo’s declaration of independence as illegal, and last night it recalled its ambassador to the U.S. in protest against Washington’s recognition of the breakaway state.
Spain, like Russia, is grappling with its own separatist movements and believes it would not be in its interest to back the former territory of Yugoslavia.
"The government of Spain will not recognise the unilateral act proclaimed yesterday by the assembly of Kosovo," Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos told reporters on arrival for a meeting of EU foreign ministers.
He said that to be legal, secession from Serbia required either an agreement between the parties or a UN Security Council resolution.
Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Miliband said it was "critical" for the European Union to show leadership on the western Balkans and to maintain peace and stability there.
"I think it’s very important that we recognise that all of the countries in the Western Balkans are European countries," he said.
"It is critical that Europe shows real leadership in how it ensures that peace and stability are the order of the day in the Western Balkans."
Aside from Spain, at least five – Cyprus, Greece, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania – have indicated they will not recognise Kosovo due to legal misgivings or concern about restive minorities in their own countries.
EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana urged restraint after Serbian nationalists stoned Western embassies in Belgrade in anger at the declaration of independence by Kosovo’s Albanians.
"The EU has already decided to send a mission, a mission of stability, a mission of rule of law.
It should contribute to the stability of the Balkans," Solana told reporters.
The EU agreed on Saturday to send 2,000 police, justice and civil administrators to help build Kosovo’s institutions.
NATO said in a statement its 17,000-strong KFOR stabilisation force would "respond resolutely to any attempts to disrupt the safety and security of the population of Kosovo".
EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said Kosovo was a unique case and would not set a precedent.
He praised Kosovan leaders for promising to respect minority rights in line with a plan drafted by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari.
Russia, Serbia’s closest ally, prevented the UN Security Council from adopting his blueprint for supervised independence last year.
That led Kosovo to declare statehood in coordination with Western powers.
Q and A
Why did Kosovo want independence?
Some 90 per cent of the population is Albanian. Demands for independence were ignored amid the wider Balkan wars of the 1990s until an armed rebellion was launched towards the end of the decade.
Serb forces hit back so hard in 1998 that 100,000 Albanians fled to the hills and Nato powers warned Serb leader Slobodan Milosevic they would not tolerate another round of "ethnic cleansing" in the Balkans.
Peace talks in France failed and in March 1999 Nato started bombing Serbia to force it to withdraw its forces from Kosovo. Some 800,000 Albanians fled or were expelled to Macedonia and Albania before Milosevic gave in 78 days later. As his forces pulled out, up to 200,000 Serbs and other ethnic minorities left as well.
How has Kosovo been run up to now?
Kosovo has been administered by the United Nations, with Nato troops as peacekeepers, since 1999. Unemployment is more than 50 per cent. Kosovo’s uncertain future has deterred outside investment.
Spasms of ethnic violence, mostly by Albanians against Serbs, and organised traffic of contraband and people, have tarnished its image.
What will happen next?
Following Sunday’s declaration of independence by the Kosovo parliament, the procedure is likely to follow a plan drawn up by UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari for "supervised independence" which was rejected by Serbia.
Under the plan, a 120-day transitional period will follow a declaration and full independence would then come into effect.
How will the world react?
EU foreign ministers met in Brussels yesterday and the majority of member states were in favour of independence. Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia, Spain and Greece are not, fearing it could set a precedent for separatist groups in their own countries among other reasons.
Russia has firmly rejected the Kosovo move and wants the United Nations to annul the declaration.
Why is Russia so opposed?
Russia considers Serbia to share a Slavic and Orthodox Christian tradition and parts of the Belgrade government have actively courted Moscow’s support in recent months. Serbia’s oil monopoly was recently sold to Russia’s Gazprom for what was considered a low price.
Traditionally an ally of Serbia, Russia is concerned by the EU’s expansion into the Balkans and Moscow believes Kosovo would set a precedent.
There is little difference, according to the Kremlin, between the separatism of Kosovo and the ambitions of pro-Russian areas such as Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia and Trans-Dniester in Moldova.
What will happen to Kosovo’s Serb minority?
An estimated 120,000 ethnic Serbs live in Kosovo, many in Serb-dominated areas north of the Ibar river, adjoining Serbia proper. Half of the population lives under Nato protection in scattered enclaves south of the Ibar river.
Under the Ahtisaari plan, the Serb minority would have guaranteed places in local government and parliament, proportionate representation in the police and civil service, and a special status for the Serbian Orthodox Church.
Is there a risk of violence?
Yes. Nato forces have stepped up their state of alert, especially in ethnically mixed areas of Kosovo. Commanders have promised more patrols.
The key question is whether they will be able to control flashpoints such as the main northern town of Mitrovica, where ethnic Serbs live north of the Ibar river and ethnic Albanians to the south.
Could the violence spread?
The nightmare scenario would involve Kosovo Serbs who live south of the Ibar river being violently driven from their homes, and the expulsion of ethnic Albanians living in enclaves in northern Kosovo, and in the Presevo and Bujanovac regions of southern Serbia.
It could go further than that. There are large ethnic Albanian communities in Macedonia and Montenegro, some of whom might seek a union with Kosovo.
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‘End of Europe’
RIA Novosti asked a number of top political analysts / experts to comment on the words of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who has said that Kosovo’s independence could be the beginning of the end for Europe, and that official recognition of its sovereignty will threaten global security.
What, we asked, will be the geopolitical consequences of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence?
Alexander Rahr, a political analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the Valdai International Discussion Club, said:
Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence, and especially its recognition by European countries, would open up a Pandora’s Box. It may create a precedent for other separatist republics and autonomous regions, which would demand similar action and the same rights that may be granted to Kosovars.
Lavrov has a legal point. Basques may demand secession from Spain, Tiroleans could secede from Italy and Hungarians from Romania. North Caucasians may demand secession from Russia, and Bavaria may insist on independence from the Federal Republic of Germany.
But the West thinks that Lavrov is dramatizing the situation, because separatism mostly stems from economic problems, while Europe hopes that its economy is strong and stable enough not to give rise to separatism.
But the threat does exist, and Lavrov’s words, which are not considered important today, could become significant a few years from now.
John Laughland, co-author of the book ‘Russia: The New Cold War?’ and a member of the Valdai International Discussion Club, said:
As you know, I support the Russian position on Kosovo because it has the merit of coherence, whereas the West’s position is inconsistent and self-contradictory. The West (EU + US) supports the independence of Kosovo but opposes the independence of Flanders, Northern Cyprus, of Republika Srpska in Bosnia, of Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia etc. The West also opposes the division of Kosovo, whereas only Serbs live North of Mitrovica. Independence for Kosovo will stimulate similar calls for independence in Western Macedonia and the Presevo valley. It may indirectly cause unrest in the Caucasus too.
Moreover, Kosovo will not actually be independent. The EU will take over from the UN its protectorate functions. Elaborate plans have been made for sending thousands of EU officials and police to "post-status" Kosovo, while the 16,000 NATO troops will remain. Kosovo would have had more real independence within Serbia than it has had under the UN or will have in Europe.
Lavrov is right to say that the independence of Kosovo will be the beginning of the end of today’s Europe because the current status of Kosovo is fixed by a UN Security Council Resolution (1244). If the EU and the US override that resolution, which says Kosovo is part of Serbia, they will have once again demonstrated their contempt for international law and shown themselves to be unreliable international partners.
Kosovo resembles Bosnia in the period 1878 – 1914. In 1878, the Treaty of Berlin put Bosnia under provisional Austrian administration while stipulating that it remained part of the Ottoman empire. In 1908, Austria violated the terms of the Treaty and annexed the territory directly. Serbia protested, but in vain. Ten years later the Archduke Franz-Ferdinand was assassinated by a Serb patriot in Sarajevo. The rest, as they say, is history.
Jan Carnogursky, prime minister of Slovakia in 1991 and 1992, an expert on Kosovo and a member of the Valdai International Discussion Club, said:
The recognition of Kosovo’s independence would be a tragedy for Serbs, for whom Kosovo is a foundation and an inalienable part of their national history.
The Serbian state was born in Kosovo and adjacent territories in the 9th and 10th centuries. Serbian orthodoxy is also rooted there, since St. Savva, the most revered saint in Serbia, founded many monasteries in Kosovo in the early 13th century. The province was also the core of the Serbian state during its prime in the mid-14th century.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Kosovo’s independence could be the beginning of the end for Europe. This is a dramatic, although essentially correct, view of the problem.
Moscow has never approved of the Western policy toward Kosovo and former Yugoslavia as a whole. Although it played a key role in stopping the war in 1999, Russia was the only member of the Contact Group that was not assigned its own sector of responsibility in the province. When the Russian paratroopers made their march to Pristina in June 1999, Serbs were jubilant, because they have always viewed Russia’s presence as the best guarantee of their rights.
Unfortunately, developments in Kosovo show that geopolitics can easily defeat moral and legal principles in the 21st century. The secession of Kosovo from Serbia without the agreement of Belgrade would create a precedent for Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdnestr and give Moscow a moral right to recognize the independence of post-Soviet breakaway republics.
Daniel Vernet, director of the international relations desk at Le Monde and a member of the Valdai International Discussion Club in 2004, said:
I think [Lavrov’s] words are too dramatic. The decision on Kosovo’s independence is far from ideal; but given the current situation, it is the lesser of many evils. If I remember correctly, it is the policy that [Slobodan] Milosevic pursued since 1989 that is to blame for the current situation.
As for geopolitical consequences, I don’t think anyone would benefit from using Kosovo’s independence as a pretext for destabilization in the Balkans or adjacent European regions. I think that common sense will dominate and the international consequences of Kosovo’s independence will be minimal.
James George Jatras, director of the American Council for Kosovo, said:
It appears that within days the UN-supervised Albanian Muslim administration in Kosovo will issue a unilateral declaration of independence followed by recognition by the United States and other countries. Serbia of course will reject such a development, as will Russia, and almost certainly China, whose vetoes in the Security Council the US would have circumvented.
It still seems underappreciated the extent to which the US action would shred any semblance of legality in the international system. It may be the first time a group of countries has purported to separate part of a state’s territory without its concession of that fact. (To be sure, many countries have been defeated and occupied and forced to sign treaties ceding land. Even Edvard Benes signed away the Sudetenland in 1938. No Serbian hand will ever sign away Kosovo). International guarantees of territorial integrity such as the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act would be a dead letter.
The US action is also a heavy blow to perhaps the only part of the UN system with any real value: the Security Council, which has helped prevent any major war since 1945, much like the 19th century "Concert of Powers" helped ensure that no general war occurred in Europe from 1815 to 1914. Indeed, devaluing Russia’s standing in the Security Council by thwarting its veto is a big "plus" for Washington, whose message to Moscow is intended to be: "Whatever you might think, this is still 1999. We can do as we please and you can’t stop us."
The US action — supported by our utterly slavish "allies" in Europe – will not settle Kosovo’s status. Kosovo’s current status is clear: it is part of Serbia with an international presence to which Serbia has reluctantly agreed. After a unilateral declaration of independence and some countries’ recognition, a competition would be kicked off between recognizing and non-recognizing states. Despite Washington’s absurd claim that Kosovo would not set a precedent, a government of any multiethnic state would recognize Kosovo at its peril. Kosovo would never become a member of the UN.
Serbia would recover control of the northern area of Kosovo and perhaps some of the enclaves. This would not be a prelude to partition, however, but the liberation of part of what then would be the illegal occupation of part of Serbia by an illegitimate, criminal, separatist regime in Pristina supported by aggressive foreign powers. It would be up to the Albanians and their supporters to decide whether to kick off a new cycle of violence by attacking the Serbs, who would live in fear that the remaining third of their pre-war population would be eradicated and the rest of their churches destroyed.
The Albanian-controlled areas of Kosovo would sink even deeper into the black hole of organized crime (drugs, slaves, arms) and jihad terror under a "government" composed of war criminals and kingpins in the Albanian Mafia. Far from stabilizing the western Balkans, instability would be perpetuated by alienation of Serbia, the only country of any consequence in the region.
Altogether, we are looking at the perfect "train wreck," as even proponents of independence are calling it: shattering the international legal system, US-Russia confrontation, violence on the ground, criminality, human rights violations, and a new frozen conflict. Who could ask for more?
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No more sushi
Israel’s nationwide sushi craze is being endangered by a wasabi-strength threat: The government, seeking to protect local jobs, wants to send all foreign-born Asian chefs packing by January 2009.Asian food has become increasingly popular in Israel, fueled by the large number of young Israelis who travel to the region in an unofficial rite of passage after compulsory army service.
Thai, Chinese, Japanese and Indian restaurants have grown into a $280 million industry, accounting for 10 percent of the local dining landscape, according to the Ethnic Restaurant Association.
For the moment, Asian restaurants employ 900 foreign chefs and kitchen workers. But if the government has its way, that number could soon drop.
“We feel an Israeli can hold a wok as well as a Thai or a Chinese person,” said Shoshana Strauss, a lawyer at the Industry and Trade Ministry, which regulates work permits for foreign workers.
Restaurant operators said the Israeli plan posed an existential threat to their thriving businesses, saying the foreigners have expertise that cannot easily be replaced.
“If we don’t have cooks, we don’t have food. If we don’t have food, we don’t have customers,” said Steven Lobel, a sushi operator who owns two Asian restaurants that employ 14 Asian kitchen workers in the Tel Aviv area. “It’s pretty much one of the biggest threats we have as restaurant operators.”
This year, the government has limited the number of visas for foreign restaurant workers to 500. The restaurant association has appealed to the High Court of Justice.
But if the order is upheld, restaurants would have to lay off nearly half their foreign workers. In 2009, there will be no work visas for foreign chefs, only tourist visas permitting brief consulting opportunities for experts in Asian cuisine, according to the Industry and Trade Ministry.
Earlier this week, Israel’s Asian restaurants went on a one-day strike in protest over the government’s threat, giving the nation a taste of life without spicy tuna, California rolls and chopsticks.
Strauss said the government was not trying to eradicate foreign restaurant workers altogether. Instead, she said, the ministry was trying to eliminate unskilled kitchen workers, who she said are often exploited by restaurateurs who pay them less than minimum wage.
“They are well-behaved, they work very hard [and] they don’t demand their rights,” Strauss said, adding that the situation creates some “humanitarian issues.”
The ministry has begun to offer Asian cooking classes to Israelis, but few have shown interest, generating skepticism that there will be Israelis to fill the soon-to-be vacated positions.
“I doubt this will succeed,” said Arnon Volosky, chief executive of the Ethnic Restaurant Association. He cited examples in London, New York and Paris, where ethnic restaurants often employ foreign chefs who specialize in their home cuisine.
“I don’t think you go into an ethnic restaurant anywhere in the world and see only locals working there,” Lobel said. For each foreign worker, seven Israelis are employed rolling sushi, waiting tables or working the wok, he said.
“What we do is help people have fun in this hectic country we live in,” Lobel said. “Everyone’s enjoying it, we’re creating job opportunities for locals.”
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Bush vows sustained help for Africa
US President George W. Bush told Malian President Amadou Toumani Toure that his commitment to help Africa battle corruption, HIV/AIDS, and malaria as well as promote literacy remains strong."We’re proud to be standing side-by-side with you," the US president said, highlighting Washington’s efforts to help Africa battle deadly diseases as well as poverty, corruption, and extremists.
"I assured the president that our commitment remains strong," said Bush, who leaves Friday on a five-country trip to Africa — likely his last before leaving office in January 2001 — to promote the kinder, gentler face of US foreign policy.
Toure, meeting with Bush at the White House, offered "the sympathy and solidarity of the Malian people" regarding the deadly tornadoes that sliced through several southern US states and postponed their talks from Friday.
But I would have come to the United States just to tell President Bush: ‘Thank you.’ The president has undertaken historic initiatives not only for Mali, but also for Africa."
During his trip next week, Bush is expected to highlight his call for doubling aid to fight HIV/AIDS and malaria, and a 698-million-dollar grant to Tanzania as part of his Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) aid program.
Bush, whose MCC rewards democratic and free-market reforms, also said he and his guest discussed US helping in battling "the dangers of radicals and extremists associated with groups like Al-Qaeda.
"And we talked about the need for close cooperation to protect the innocent people from those who murder the innocent in order to achieve their dark political vision," said Bush.
The US Army has been training the Malian military in counter-terrorism strategies for five years under the Trans-Sahara Counter-Terrorist Partnership (TSCTP).
The desert north of Mali, vast and difficult to monitor, is an important point of passage for traffickers, especially of weapons, and for militant groups active in the Sahara, such as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), now known as Al-Qaeda’s branch in northern Africa,
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Defeat a “real possibility” in Afghanistan
NATO is in disarray and the West faces defeat in Afghanistan unless it overhauls its counter-insurgency and reconstruction strategy, Britain’s Paddy Ashdown wrote in an article published on Wednesday.Ashdown, who was rejected last month by Afghan President Hamid Karzai for the post of senior U.N. envoy to the country, called in the Financial Times for renewed efforts to win Taliban moderates away from the insurgency.
"With fighting in Afghanistan now entering its seventh year, no agreed international strategy, public support on both sides of the Atlantic crumbling, NATO in disarray and widening insecurity in Afghanistan, defeat is now a real possibility…
"We have not lost in Afghanistan … But we will lose if we do not start doing things differently," he warned.
Ashdown said the consequences of failure in Afghanistan would be appalling.
"Global terrorism would have won back its old haven and created a new one over the border in a mortally weakened Pakistan," he said.
Ashdown called for more cooperation between international military and civilian efforts and a greater focus on governance and the rule of law across in a country where corruption and lawlessness is widespread.
Of an international security effort which has at times caused civilian casualties, he said:
"Breaking up the Taliban by winning over the moderates is a far better route to success than bombing and body counts."
U.S.-led forces toppled the Taliban government in 2001, but Taliban rebels launched an insurgency two years ago and violence has risen sharply since then.
Washington has called on NATO allies to send more troops to Afghanistan and to commit more of them to the south of the country where the Taliban insurgency is strongest.
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US uncovers ‘Russian threat’
U.S. Congress held annual hearings on security issues, based on the report by National Intelligence Director Michael McConnell. Along with al-Qaeda, Iraq, and Iran, U.S. intelligence officials listed Russia and China among the outer threats. Moscow and Beijing are charged with using their growing economic influence in the world for advancing their own political goals, and with cyber-terrorism. Kommersant’s special correspondent Dmitry Sidorov reports from Washington.This year’s hearings are notable for the unexpected unanimity displayed by intelligence chiefs when discussing McConnell’s report. Covert competition among different agencies of U.S. intelligence passed into a proverb long ago. It is no secret that CIA officers are reluctant to share information with their colleagues from the National Intelligence, and vice versa. Also, the FBI always disliked people “across the river” (the CIA), and the latter reciprocated.
This time, however, intelligence chiefs seemed to have undergone drastic changes: they did their best to display readiness for constructive cooperation. So, CIA head Michael Hayden underlined the recently-appeared progress in special services’ cooperation, which did not prevent him from making a cautious reservation, though. He said that overcoming the in-house code of conduct “will take certain time”.
Meanwhile, McConnell’s report was as surprising as the climate at the hearings. Although the part devoted to Russia was not as extensive as the parts about Iraq, Iran, and al-Qaeda, it was the most sensational one. It is for the first time that the leading U.S. intelligence service listed Russia among chief threats to U.S. national security.
However, it turned out the U.S. special services believe it is not the only threat coming from Russia now. The second threat is cyber-terrorism. “We assess that nations, including Russia and China, have the technical capabilities to target and disrupt elements of the US information infrastructure and for intelligence collection,” said McConnell.
“The assessment is based on the analysis of Russia’s last-year cyber-attack on Estonia at the height of the Bronze Soldier conflict, and some other actions of Russian special services,” explained a source close to the U.S. intelligence. The source refrained from giving specific examples, though.
Speaking of the political situation inside Russia and its possible scenarios, the U.S. intelligence chief estimated it the following way: “In March, Russia is set to reach […] the first on-schedule change in leadership since communism and the first voluntary transfer of power from one healthy Kremlin leader to another.” By the way, McConnell avoided using the word ‘election’ when describing the upcoming authority change in Russia.
Moreover, McConnell said the process is “clouded, however, by President Putin’s declared readiness to serve as prime minister under his hand-picked successor, Dmitry Medvedev, a move that raises questions about who will be in charge of Russia after Putin’s presidential term expires in May”.
“The Medvedev-Putin ‘cohabitation’ raises questions about the country’s future and the implications for Western interests.” “While many of the essential features of the current system are likely to endure, including weak institutions, corruption, and growing authoritarianism, we will be alert for signs of systemic changes such as an indication that presidential powers are being weakened in favor of a stronger prime minister, McConnell summed up the political situation in Russia.
The report focuses on analyzing the instruments of Russian diplomacy’s pressure for the nearest four years, including energy-trade and military capabilities. U.S. intelligence services see the threat to U.S. and its western partners’ national security in Moscow’s energy policy as well. “Aggressive Russian efforts to control, restrict or block the transit of hydrocarbons from the Caspian to the West—and to ensure that East-West energy corridors remain subject to Russian control—underscore the potential power and influence of Russia’s energy policy,” said McConnell.
The official also noted teething changes in the Russian army which is overcoming “a long, deep deterioration in its capabilities that started before the collapse of the Soviet Union”. At the same time, McConnell believes the Russian army has not yet reached “Soviet era operations”, and “still faces significant challenges”, such as “demographic, health problems, and conscription deferments”. “Strategic nuclear forces remain viable, but Russia’s defense industry suffers from overcapacity, loss of skilled and experienced personnel, lack of modern machine tools, rising material and labor costs, and dwindling component suppliers,” adds McConnell.
While discussing Russia, senators also touched upon Moscow’s relations with Iran. Senator Evan Bayh wondered why Russians supply nuclear fuel for atomic power plants to Iran.
“Russians are in talks with Iran, using the supplies of fuel for its peaceful nuclear program to show that Moscow is keeping everything under control,” replied McConnell. “Russians also explain to Iranians they can expect a lot if they agree to the international community’s offers,” he added. “I hope the matter is precisely so,” replied Bayh. In his turn, Christopher Bond, vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, evaded the question whether the U.S. regards Moscow’s military-equipment cooperation with Iran and Syria as a threat to its national security as well. “There is a whole range of threats,” said Bond evasively. “Each of them is quite serious, and I wouldn’t select any of them as the top one,” he said.
Meanwhile, a source close to the U.S. intelligence said the threats list includes a suspicion that Moscow-Tehran nuclear cooperation might be beyond the framework of current international agreements.
Beside Russia, the Senate Committee also heatedly discussed Iraq, al-Qaeda, and special services’ methods applied against international terrorism, questioned not only by human rights defenders, but also by congressmen. Chief news was that U.S. intelligence top officials acknowledged facts of using the so-called water torture during the questioning of terrorism suspects. The torture makes a suspect feel as if they are drowning. When asked whether these prohibited methods were used, CIA Director Michael Hayden had to admit the practice indeed took place. However, he stressed that water torture was applied only to three high-ranking Al-Qaeda members, and not recently, but over five years ago.
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Chad rebels raise stakes for Africa
Idriss Déby, Chad’s president, faced the gravest threat to his 17-year rule this weekend when rebels stormed the capital and fought their way to the gates of his palace. But within 24 hours the man dubbed the “cowboy of the sands” appeared to have regained the initiative, personally ordering counter-attacks as the guerrillas fell back.Gunfire rattling through the capital N’Djamena on Monday showed that the battle for the city, and Chad, is not over. But the stakes for the region, and for western policy in Africa, will be huge whatever Mr Déby’s fate.
If he survives, he will emerge stronger, the crisis emphasising his importance to western strategy in containing the Darfur conflict across the border in Sudan.
“The rebels are giving it their best shot,” said Reed Brody, a lawyer at Human Rights Watch who follows Chad. “It’s not over, but if he does turn it back it will show that he has more staying power than many people think.”
But if Mr Déby falls, the conflict in Darfur could worsen, plans to deploy European Union troops in Chad may stall, and turmoil could spill into Central African Republic, potentially destabilising a swathe of Africa. Chad, a landlocked, arid country in the Sahelian belt straddling Arab and black Africa, has received scant outside attention compared with Sudan, where the US has described the conflict in Darfur as “genocide”.
Quietly though, Chad has co-operated with the US “war on terror”, allowing American forces to train its troops as part of a wider plan to stop extremists infiltrating the Sahel.
More overtly, Mr Déby has proved crucial to western strategy for Darfur, having agreed to host a 3,700-strong EU force to protect refugees and Chadian civilians.
Mr Déby is, however, a far from neutral bystander. Although he was originally installed with Khartoum’s help in 1990, his support for Darfur rebels from his Zaghawa community has angered his former friends. Observers say the Sudanese government has adopted Chadian rebels in the hope of ousting Mr Déby and cutting supply lines to fractious insurgents in Darfur.
Some analysts say this weekend’s attack was motivated in part by Sudan’s desire to block the deployment of the mainly French EU force, which Mr Déby’s opponents feared would act as a bulwark to defend him.
In fact, Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, chose to break with his predecessor, Jacques Chirac, a long-time Déby ally, by denying direct military aid during the assault on the capital.
But should Mr Déby prove he can survive even without French support, he may end up looking more formidable.
Oil plays a big part. Revenues from crude flowing through a pipeline from Chad to Cameroon opened by a consortium led by ExxonMobil in 2003 have enriched his circle, and bought new weapons. Human rights groups say Mr Déby has used the crisis to eliminate opponents by rounding up civilian opposition leaders with no links to the rebels.
The crackdown has only underlined Mr Déby’s failure to solve a problem that has plagued Chad since independence: power struggles are waged not through the ballot box but by factions with guns. With the current coalition of rebels led by men such as Mahamat Nouri, Mr Déby’s former defence minister, and Timan Erdimi, a former member of Mr Déby’s ruling clan, observers treat their pledges to build democracy with extreme caution.
But the real winner if Mr Déby falls would be President Omar Hassan al-Bashir’s Islamist government in Sudan, who might feel encouraged to try to smash the Darfur rebels and even challenge Mr Déby’s allies in CAR.
“Khartoum would be very emboldened,” said Suliman Baldo, of the International Center for Transitional Justice. “They would escalate their military campaign to try and settle the Darfur issue on the battlefield.”
About Idriss Déby
●Born into the northern Zaghawa community in 1952, near the border with Sudan
●Trained at a French military college, learning to pilot helicopters
●Defeated rebel forces in the 1980s as chief of staff for former Chadian dictator Hissene Habre, gaining a reputation as a clever tactician
●Seized power himself in 1990 after launching a three-week offensive from neighbouring Sudan
●Won elections in 1996 and 2001, though observers noted irregularities
●Won third election in 2006 after removing a constitutional two-term limit for the presidency. Opposition parties boycotted poll
●Key supporters began to defect, launching a series of rebel groups who buried their differences to unite for an assault on the capital at the weekend -
NATO chief trained by KGB
The new chief of the Hungarian secret services, who spent six years at the KGB’s academy in Moscow during the 1980s, has become chairman of NATO’s intelligence committee, a development that diplomats said could compromise the security of the alliance.Sandor Laborc, 49, was personally chosen by Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany of Hungary as director of the country’s counterintelligence National Security Office in December, after a bitter dispute between the governing coalition led by the Socialists – the former Communists – and the main opposition party, Fidesz.
Laborc, a former Communist who was trained at the KGB’s Dzerzhinsky Academy from 1983 to 1989, according to members of the national security committee in the Hungarian Parliament, had failed to win support from that committee, which oversees such appointments.
Despite that, Gyurcsany and Gyorgy Szilvasy, the minister responsible for the intelligence services, pushed through the appointment.
"A decision by the National Security Committee has no binding effect," Gyurcsany’s office said in a statement issued in response to several written questions about Laborc from the International Herald Tribune. "Gyorgy Szilvasy had the right to make a decision in his own capacity and advise the prime minister. He justified the recommendation by introducing General Laborc as someone with unquestioned professional credentials."
Soon after his appointment, Laborc took over the chairmanship of NATO’s special committee dealing with a wide range of intelligence issues, a rotating post that is held for a year and which fell to Hungary last month, alliance officials confirmed Friday.
The committee, whose main task is to analyze and share intelligence, includes all of the secret service chiefs of NATO countries, who meet several times a year.
Several NATO delegations, including the United States, whose ambassador was asked several times to comment on Laborc’s appointment, declined to do so.
James Appathurai, a NATO spokesman, said, "We do not comment on personnel appointments or intelligence issues."
Some delegations said they had not been aware of Laborc’s biography. His short curriculum vitae posted on the Hungarian security service’s official Web site makes no mention of his time spent in Moscow. His past came to light when Szilvasy proposed him for the top intelligence job last autumn.
NATO diplomats who did agree to discuss the appointment insisted on anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. They said that even if they had reservations about Laborc, they were in no position to block his appointment.
"NATO makes decisions on the basis of consensus," said a senior diplomat from an East European country. "If we had questioned this appointment then we would have to go further up to the top, in this case the Hungarian prime minister, to ask him about Laborc’s past."
Another diplomat, from a Western country, said, "It would have taken one phone call by the U.S. ambassador to NATO to stop this appointment. It would have been a signal to other countries which might think they can still get away with this."
In its statement, Gyurcsany’s office said: "Not a single ambassador protested. Through diplomatic channels we received information that our partners are satisfied with the development of interagency cooperation."
In practice, Laborc’s appointment means that some NATO countries will be much more wary about sharing sensitive intelligence.
"Here we have a person who was trained by the KGB. I cannot assume that he has changed that much in his attitudes," said another NATO diplomat, predicting that several important NATO countries would hold back on sharing intelligence. "NATO, it must be said, is a very leaky organization," the diplomat added.
Indeed, NATO has been plagued with leaks. Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic joined the alliance in 1999, and the rest of the former Warsaw Pact countries in 2004. After that expansion, military attachés from the Bulgarian delegation did not receive clearance to have access to a certain level of intelligence material.
"You could bet that anything we shared with Bulgaria inside NATO went straight to Moscow ," said another senior Western European diplomat. "The old Communist nomenklatura and secret services is still around in Romania and Bulgaria. But I must say the case of Hungary is very, very disappointing."
Earlier, in the spring of 1999 when NATO was selecting bombing targets in its war to stop Serbian repression of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, Greece, a member of NATO and the European Union but an ally of Serbia during the Balkan wars of the 1990s, repeatedly leaked alliance plans to Belgrade, NATO diplomats said Friday.
In Hungary itself , Laborc’s appointment has deepened the mistrust and polarization between the governing Socialists and the Fidesz opposition because of the way the prime minister by-passed the Parliament’s national security committee.
Although the committee’s decision is not constitutionally binding, such committees have served as important instruments of democratic accountability since 1990, when the Communists were removed from power in Hungary.
Moreover, until 2002 when the Socialists won the parliamentary elections, any Hungarian official who had served for more than a year in Moscow could not, for security reasons, be appointed to positions higher than a department head.
"At stake is the fundamental regard for the rule of law," said Janos Martonyi, a former Hungarian foreign minister and Fidesz supporter. After a five-hour debate by the national security committee in late November, Laborc failed to win a majority of the 11 votes. No other candidate was offered by the government. The opposition declined to put forward a candidate.
Fidesz claims that Gyurcsany, a former Communist youth leader turned millionaire who has close ties to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, has been politicizing the secret services for domestic reasons in order to keep track of the opposition, the media and trade unions.
The opposition also has criticzed Gyurcsany for trying to push through austerity measures without public consultation or democratic accountability.
It has challenged the security services’ use of live ammunition against mostly peaceful demonstrators during protests in September 2006.
The protests had been set off by a leak of Gyurcsany’s speech to party supporters, soon after the spring 2006 elections, in which he said the party had lied "day and night" about the miserable state of the economy in order to win.
Zsolt Nemeth, chairman of the Parliament’s foreign affairs committee and a leading member of Fidesz, said it was "a great shame what is happening to the idea of democratic accountability."
He said the two biggest concerns over the Laborc appointment were that he would replace the young professionals who entered the services during the 1990s and bring back people loyal to Gyurcsany.
"Above all, our concern is that the security services will become politicized and be used for domestic politics," he added.
Peter Balazs, an economics professor at Central European University in Budapest and a supporter of the government, dismissed Fidesz’s criticisms.
"Much has changed in Hungary since Laborc’s time spent in Moscow over 20 years ago," he said. "This is all about internal politics. Just because someone was in Moscow during the 1980s, I don’t think that we should sack anybody after 20 years."
Besides the opposition, the United States and Britain are concerned about Gyurcsany’s relations with Putin, according to British diplomats in London.
Last year, Gyurcsany publicly supported Russia’s plans to build the South Stream pipeline that will compete with the EU project known as Nabucco, which is intended to weaken Europe’s dependence on Russian gas imports.
British diplomats, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that Gyurcsany had changed tack under American and British pressure. Then last December, during a meeting of the Hungarian and Russian cabinets in Budapest, Gyurcsany came out again in support of the South Stream project.
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Fourth cable break
Internet services in Qatar have been seriously disrupted because of damage to an undersea telecoms cable linking the Gulf state to the UAE, the fourth such incident in less than a week.Qatar Telecom (Qtel) said on Sunday the cable was damaged between the Qatari island of Haloul and the UAE island of Das on Friday.
The cause of damage is not yet known, but ArabianBusiness.com has been told unofficially the problem is related to the power system and not the result of a ship’s anchor cutting the cable, as is thought to be the case in the other three incidents.
It is expected to take at least "a few days" to fix, according to one person with knowledge of the situation.
The damage caused major problems for internet users in Qatar over the weekend, but Qtel’s loss of capacity has been kept below 40% thanks to what the telecom said was a large number of alternative routes for transmission.
It is not yet clear how badly telecom and internet services have been affected in the UAE. Etisalat is expected to release a statement on Monday.
Parts of the Gulf Arab region were plunged into a virtual internet blackout on Wednesday when two undersea cables were cut near Alexandria, on Egypt’s north coast.
The initial breaches were in segments of two intercontinental cables known as Sea-ME-We-4 and Flag Europe-Asia.
The situation was made worse on Friday when Flag, part of India’s Reliance Communications, revealed a third cable, Falcon, had also been damaged off the UAE coast.
Etisalat said it does not use the Falcon cable and is therefore unaffected, but the UAE’s second telco, Du, warned the damage could hamper its efforts to restore normal service to customers. Etisalat said it is helping Du minimise disruption.
Flag said a repair ship was expected to arrive at the location of the third damaged cable in the next few days, but bad weather has prevented the vessel from setting off from Abu Dhabi port.
The ship is now expected to depart Monday morning and the repairs should take five days.
The third cable is located 56 kilometres from Dubai on a segment between the UAE and Oman.
Etisalat said it had been informed by Flag Telecom, which operates one of the two damaged cables in the Mediterranean Sea, that the problem should be fixed in two weeks, while the operator of the other cable planned to carry out repairs on February 8.
Flag said on Saturday a ship should reach the cable repair ground by February 5.
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German tourists killed in Kenya
A gang of youths hacked two Germans to death with machetes during an apparent robbery attempt in a private villa in Kenya’s coastal resort of Diani late on Sunday, police said on Monday.The wife of one of the dead, a German tourist who had arrived in Kenya on holiday a fortnight ago, was also injured in the attack and had been taken to hospital. The second victim was the German owner of the villa.
Police said the killings did not appear to be linked to violence which has rocked large parts of Kenya following the disputed re-election of President Mwai Kibaki a month ago.
"This was organised crime. We are treating it as murder," local police chief Stanley Lamai said.
The gang of around eight youths forced themselves into the villa compound as a watchman opened the gate to allow the Germans in after they returned from dinner, police said. The youths escaped with a stolen camera and some money.
Around 800 people have been killed in ethnic fighting and clashes with the security forces around Kenya since the Dec. 27 polls, violence which has battered the country’s image as an east African tourism and trade hub.
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Mugabe will triumph at Hain’s departure
Whatever the rights and wrongs of Peter Hain’s resignation, one man will be celebrating his downfall today. Hunched in his redoubt in Harare, fresh from having beaten another opposition rally off the streets, Robert Mugabe will be having a good day.Mugabe developed an almost hysterical hatred for the outgoing Work and Pensions Secretary when Hain served as the Foreign Office minister responsible for Africa. Hain held this job between 1999 and 2001 when Zimbabwe’s headlong slide into ruin began.
To his great credit, Hain was unsparing in his criticism of Mugabe. When President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa studiously looked the other way and ignored Zimbabwe’s descent, Hain attacked him as well.
Mugabe genuinely thought that Hain was running an international conspiracy designed to overthrow him. I was based in Zimbabwe at the time and I used to attend rallies where Mugabe’s loyal supporters waved banners reading “Peter Hain – stop lying about Zimbabwe”.
If you can tell something about a man from his enemies, then all this reflects very well on Hain.
David Blair Political Editor