Mugabe?s Madness

On the 29th March, Zimbabweans went to the polls in the presidential and legislative elections after years of suffering under the tyrannical rule of President Robert Mugabe.  It was pretty much assumed that this time, as in previous elections, Mugabe and his Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front party (Zanu-PF) would win the election by rigging the results.  And certainly they tried to do so!  But the world was in for a surprise.

By the next day, the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), led by Morgan Tsvangirai, was claiming victory – and it wasn’t a hollow claim.  There is no doubt whatsoever that they did, in fact, win, and win overwhelmingly.  By April 2 it was clear, even from official results,  that Zanu-PF had lost its majority in parliament.  The MDC had won the parliamentary election with a huge majority.  But even more astoundingly, Morgan Tsvangirai had clearly won the presidential election as well.  This was admitted even by the State-controlled Herald newspaper, for it predicted a run-off – a clear admission that Mugabe had not won.  It was admitted, too, by Zanu-PF, for the party called for a recount of the votes even before the results of the election were supposedly known!  The party would not have done this if it knew it had won.

Also, if Mugabe had won, the results would have been made public within a day or two of the election, amidst much crowing and strutting; but this was not done.  And indeed, over four weeks after the election the results were still not made known! Nothing proves that Mugabe lost the election more forcefully than this.

The election results caught Mugabe and Zanu-PF by surprise.  Although they certainly rigged the elections to some extent, they were so confident of winning anyway, thanks to massive intimidation over many months, that they did not bother to rig the results sufficiently – and they got a nasty shock when, despite the intimidation, the Zimbabwean people voted overwhelmingly against him.  So overwhelmingly, in fact, that even with the rigging that went on, it was just not enough to ensure Mugabe’s victory.  His defeat was total.  It was crushing.  And this is why the election results were not released, and still have not been released.  And the delay has given Mugabe time to tamper with the ballots.

How did the MDC snatch such an amazing victory from the jaws of what looked like certain defeat, being up against an incredibly brutal, vicious police state with vast resources, whose president has boasted that he has degrees in violence (not an idle boast as he is a Marxist terrorist who committed terrible atrocities during the 1970s terrorist revolution against Rhodesia)?  After all, there was nothing whatsoever free or fair about this election from the Zanu-PF side.  Sure, Mugabe saw to it that election day itself was mostly peaceful, so as to con the election observers into thinking all was well.  But in the months before the election, there was massive intimidation countrywide, and MDC supporters were beaten, tortured, kidnapped, even murdered.  Morgan Tsvangirai himself was savagely beaten.   The MDC was not given anything like the access to the media that Mugabe’s Zanu-PF had.  It was also not given access to voters’ rolls.  The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission itself, which oversaw the elections, was run by Zanu-PF people.  The voters’ roll had something in the region of two million dead or departed people still on it, allowing massive organised “ghost” voting.  Zanu-PF had also filled the voters’ rolls with hundreds of thousands of false names and addresses.  There were “ghost” polling stations, known only to Zanu-PF agents.  And the government had printed millions more ballot papers than there were voters in the country, so that they could be filled in as needed in favour of Zanu-PF.  Police, mostly very pro-Mugabe, were allowed into polling stations to “help” voters vote for the “right” party.  Large numbers of voters were turned away from polling stations after being told that their names were not on the rolls.  And in a country facing starvation, as an election incentive Zanu-PF distributed food mainly to those who were its own supporters, not to opposition people.   Some three million Zimbabweans, or a quarter of the country’s population, who now live in neighbouring countries where they fled to avoid starving to death, were also not allowed to vote.

Thus everything about this election was tipped in Mugabe’s favour!  So how, then, did the MDC pull it off?  They did so by sheer, dogged, desperate determination, having reached the point of such despair that no amount of threats, intimidation, torture or violence could prevent them turning out to vote Mugabe out of power; and they also did it by a very simple but clever tactic.  Prior to the election they managed to secure what looked like a very small concession: to have the lists of election results posted outside polling stations as soon as they were known.  This simple step prevented the massive rigging that there would otherwise have been; for as soon as the results were posted outside each polling station, photographs were taken of the results by cellphone and digital camera and these were sent off to independent polling verification centres in South Africa.

The MDC’s Eddie Cross, writing from Zimbabwe, said: “The outcome of the election has been a stunning victory for the MDC and Morgan Tsvangirai.  Many of the strongholds of Zanu-PF have fallen to overwhelming MDC majorities.”  Opposition to Mugabe was like a tsunami, he said.  He attributed the MDC success to “the support network built up over several years in the region and these hidden heroes are very much responsible for the activity everyone has seen in the past few weeks [before the election] – the adverts, the flyers, the postal war and the funding for our candidates.  Finally the anti-rigging operation.  We knew how they had rigged previous elections and we set out to try and stop a recurrence.  The whistle-blower campaign was a key part of that…. The many people who climbed in and said ‘one more time’ and spent days in the bush helping with the count and the reporting system are unsung heroes.  Then the people – they had just had enough, had enough of arrogance and being taken for granted, enough of the sufferings and destruction of the economy…. They chose to suffer in silence and then go out and vote.  For me they are the real champions and I hope they will never again be taken for granted.”

Truly we take our hats off to the ordinary people of Zimbabwe, who against such a monstrous regime stood firm and said, “Enough is enough!” and voted the tyrant and his cronies out of power.  Unlike Mugabe and his terrorist organisation, Zanu-PF, who came to power through violence and terror 28 years ago, the people of Zimbabwe did not break the law, they did not rise up in violence against the State, they simply voted the tyrant out, legally and peacefully, even in the face of unbelievable cruelty.

But the big question after the election was: would the 84-year-old dictator, who has ruled Zimbabwe for 28 years with an iron fist, accept defeat and bow out?  Initially there was real hope that he would indeed do so.  Zimbabweans, and South Africans too, held their breath as it became clear that they were witnessing an extraordinary historical moment: the crushing defeat, at the polls and despite the rigging which accompanies Zimbabwean elections, of the Marxist monster who has taken the country known as the breadbasket of southern Africa and turned it into the world’s basket-case.  Was the nightmare finally going to be over? 

Alas, no.  For a brief few days, it looked like springtime had come to Zimbabwe.  They were exciting days indeed.  We who live in this part of the world were amazed, stunned, and exuberant.  For a short while it really seemed as if things were about to change.  But those of us who live in Africa, and study Africa, and know Africa, were cautious.  Robert Mugabe is no fool.  He is a very clever, very cunning man.  And sure enough, it eventually dawned on everyone that Mugabe was not going to concede defeat.  He was going to do everything he could to cling to power, use every brutal tactic of suppression and terror of which he is a past master.  And very soon the world started to see Mugabe taking revenge, and consolidating his grip in defiance of the election results.  Tsvangirai and the MDC won the election, they are the true new leaders of Zimbabwe, but in Africa, it’s not the man with the most votes who takes over, it’s the man with the guns.  And at this stage Robert Mugabe still holds all the guns in his blood-stained hands.

It started, in fact, the very day after the elections, when the MDC offices were raided by the police.  Four foreign journalists were also detained.

Then, on April 4, so-called “war veterans” from the terrorist war of the 1970s – but mostly unemployed youths who played no part in that revolution as they were either not born or too young to have done so, but are useful thugs Mugabe has no qualms about using to achieve his goals – marched through the streets of Harare, the capital, threatening to again start seizing white-owned farms, as they had done in previous years.  Clearly, Mugabe was targeting Zimbabwe’s whites once again.  They are an easy target.  But not only the whites: his storm troopers started beating up black MDC supporters, threatening them, etc.

On April 5, Tsvangirai called on Mugabe to accept defeat and step down.  He warned that the military, loyal to Mugabe, was now directly interfering with the work of the electoral commission by arresting its officials and moving the work of the verification of the presidential ballots to a secret place, where MDC representatives were not present.  There was no doubt at all that the delay in releasing the presidential election results was to enable Mugabe’s people to inflate the results in their favour, by reducing Tsvangirai’s presidential vote to below the 50%-plus-one result required for him to win the presidency.

Tsvangirai accused Mugabe of plotting a campaign of violence to bolster his chances of winning a run-off.  Armed police barred MDC officials from filing an urgent application in the High Court demanding that the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission release the presidential results (imagine a country where such an extraordinary step was even necessary!).  On this same day, reports start pouring in of “war veterans” having again started to take over the few remaining white-owned farms.  Very soon, some 30 farms had been invaded.

For the few remaining commercial white farmers in Zimbabwe, this was a time of great fear: crowds of angry “war vets” outside farm gates, beating drums, chanting, smoking joints and drinking alcohol, working themselves up into a frenzy.  Inside the farmhouses, frightened families clustered together, uncertain, wondering what to do, their exit roads off their farms blocked by “war vets” baying for their blood.  The farm invasions were in full swing – eight years after the first invasions of white-owned farms began, resulting in the deaths of farmers and their labourers, the violent takeovers of their farms, and the destruction of Zimbabwe’s once world-renowned agricultural sector and its agriculture-based economy, which led in turn to widespread famine and starvation across the country.  Over 4000 white-owned farms were seized at that time.  Now it was the turn of the few remaining white farmers.  The president of the Commercial Farmers’ Union said, “We were told that they [the orders to invade] come from the very highest levels of government.  They said they wanted to see white farmers’ bodies on the streets.”  He also correctly said, “People are being paid to basically carry out the wishes of the highest office.  This is purely racial.” 

This was Mugabe’s revenge against those who had supported the opposition MDC in the election: farmers, their labourers, everyone.  It was payback time – and as always in the Zimbabwe of Robert Mugabe, it was brutal.  Not only were the white farmers forcefully kicked off their own land, but their black labourers were beaten up and their huts were burnt down. The Zanu-PF thugs made use of the lists of results which had been posted outside polling stations to target the areas where the voting had gone against Mugabe.

On April 7, the State-owned Herald newspaper quoted Mugabe as saying, “Land must remain in our hands.  The land is ours, it must not be allowed to slip back into the hands of whites.”  Apart from the naked racism and incitement to violence against whites in these words, it shows yet again that despite the fact that these whites are Zimbabwean citizens, Mugabe does not view them as such, but as foreigners who do not belong, who must be driven off the land and out of their country.  And this despite the fact that Zimbabwe’s remaining whites are a very tiny minority in the country, and that his crushing defeat at the polls was brought about by millions of black voters.

Those white farmers who could do so took their families to the cities, abandoning their farms to the drunken mobs of thugs.  But others were blocked from leaving and were holed up in their homes on their farms, cowering behind security fences and bullet-proof doors.

One farmer, driven off his land, said: “I have wondered what this day would be like, whether it would come after all these years, and now I am wondering if this is it, or if I will be able to get back.”  He was forced to leave his farm, abandoning his hundreds of black farm labourers, as well as the fields full of mature crops at a time when Zimbabwe faces its worst food crisis ever.

On April 7, Mugabe came under international criticism, with  calls from the United Nations, the United States, and the European Union for the electoral commission to release the results of the presidential election.  Of course, to date Mugabe has still refused to permit the release of the results.  He held an election, he lost, and now he refuses to permit the results to be known but continues to rule the country anyway. 

Such criticism as was heard from the West was lame-duck criticism of course, and Mugabe knows it. Britain and the United States interfered constantly in Rhodesia’s affairs in the 1960s and 1970s, pressurising Ian Smith to capitulate to the Marxist terrorist Robert Mugabe and others.  This disaster in the former Rhodesia is very much their doing.  And yet now – after Mugabe has destroyed his country, murdered tens of thousands, etc., they lamely bleat but that’s all.  They were more than willing to stick their noses into Rhodesia’s business back then, but they are very reluctant now to do the same with Zimbabwe!

And, as always, Mugabe’s fellow black African leaders closed ranks with him.    On April 9, Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, current head of the Southern African Development Corporation (SADC), announced an emergency SADC summit in Lusaka, Zambia, to discuss the election deadlock.  People thought, “Oh, good.  African leaders are at last beginning to stand against Mugabe.”  How wrong they were.  On April 12, South African President Thabo Mbeki met Mugabe in Zimbabwe, en route to the SADC summit in Zambia, and afterwards said to journalists: “There is no crisis in Zimbabwe.”  The world could hardly believe its ears.  Opposition supporters had been arrested and tortured, journalists had been banned, white-owned farms had been violently invaded and taken over – but still the South African president could walk hand in hand with Comrade Bob at the airport, and then later he could look into the cameras and with a straight face say, “There is no crisis in Zimbabwe.”  It’s called spin, and African leaders are masters at it.

Mbeki added that the electoral commission must be given time to release the results.  But two weeks had already passed!  How much time was required?  And as this is being written, over four weeks have now passed, and still no results have been released.  Mugabe clearly lost, and Mbeki knew it – but his party, the ANC, has no moral qualms about election-rigging – it came to power itself in 1994 through what was probably the most rigged election in history – and it certainly wants its old buddy Mugabe to stay in power.

Mugabe himself refused to attend the SADC summit, saying, “He [Mbeki] is going to the summit, I’m not…. We’re very good friends, very good brothers.  But sometimes we also have other business that holds us back.”  The real reason, of course, for his not attending was that he feared if he left the country, he would be unseated in an uprising.

And, predictably, the SADC meeting achieved nothing.  When it came to the crunch, African leaders rallied behind Mugabe, as they always do.  Oh, sure, the Zambian president said some good things.  He said, for example, that SADC could “no longer stand by while one of its member countries experiences political and economic difficulties.”  Good as far as it went.  But then he added that the SADC summit would not put Mugabe “on trial.”

Most of the African leaders are cut from the same terrorist cloth as Mugabe.  They are old Communist comrades in arms, and they won’t utter a squeak of protest against their beloved “comrade”.  So they remain silent, proving yet again that in black Africa, the leaders only pay lip-service to democracy for the sake of fooling the West.  And they succeed.  On April 16, UN head Ban Ki-moon called on African leaders to step up efforts to end the crisis in Zimbabwe, saying, “The credibility of the democratic process in Africa could be at stake here.”  He was right, of course, but he was naive if he thought African leaders would listen. American and European leaders remain woefully ignorant of how African leaders work.  They are hoodwinked over and over again.

Nowhere in the world does a country have a presidential election, and then refuse to release the results!  It is extraordinary, and it is criminal.  But this is Africa, and this is Robert Mugabe, and this is Communism.  As Stalin once said, “It’s not who votes who counts, it’s who counts the vote.”

Some three weeks after the election, Robert Mugabe vowed that Britain and the MDC would never “steal” his country.  His reference to Britain has become a constant theme in his speeches, as he makes the claim, time and time again, that Britain, which once ruled Zimbabwe (then called Rhodesia) as a colony, is trying to “re-colonise” the country through the MDC.  Yet there is no evidence whatsoever to substantiate this claim.  In his speech he said: “You want the British to come back again?  You saw what they did when they heard that the MDC was winning.  The whites in the UK, Australia and South Africa started coming in and some are still here in the hotels” – an apparent reference to Zimbabwe’s white farmers evicted from their land.  “That [land being returned to white farmers] will never ever happen.  Down with the British.  Down with thieves who want to steal our country.”  This from the man who has not only stolen it time and again, but raped it as well.

The previous day Mugabe said: “We should not let our children down by dropping our guard against imperialism, British imperialism, which is surreptitiously and clandestinely weaving its way through our society, trying to divide us.”  Like the Marxist he is, he diverts the attention of the people from the real problems and the real enemies – namely, from himself and his party – to some imaginary danger, one which he has warned about so often that in the minds of many of his foolish followers it is now very real.  It’s the old saying: tell a lie, tell it often enough, and the people will believe it as truth.

Any run-off election is likely to be doctored in Mugabe’s favour, for he could not only massively rig the results, but also many who voted against him the first time will have been intimidated into voting for him the second time.

Ominously, the commander of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, Constantine Chiwenga, a Mugabe loyalist, has reportedly taken personal control of Mugabe’s re-election bid.  He met with provincial commanders of the army, police and secret service police to plan Mugabe’s campaign.  These military men know that if Mugabe falls, they fall – and if Mugabe is ever tried for his crimes, they will be too.  They have a vested interest in propping him up.

“Authoritative military sources said provincial joint committees manned by senior military, police and intelligence officers loyal to Mugabe will spearhead the campaign that they said will see unprecedented violence unleashed on supporters of opposition MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai,” said Zim Online, an independent Zimbabwean news service.  “The level of violence is going to be shocking,” a senior army officer was quoted as saying.  “It is going to be a wave that will keep Tsvangirai’s supporters indoors and displaced.  It is meant to ensure that only supporters of Mugabe will dare come out in large numbers to vote in the run-off election.”

Certainly there has been a massive increase in State-orchestrated violence since the election.  As one example: a black woman who worked for the MDC was awoken at midnight by ten men who barged into her house, and dragged her, her sister and her aunt from their beds, saying, “Your man did not win this election.  Next time you must get it right or you will die.”  The truck they were in had no number plates, which was typical of those used by the feared Central Intelligence Organisation, the secret police.  The women’s wrists and ankles were tied, and then they were pulled out onto the street and their bound hands were tied to the truck’s tow bar.  The truck then sped off, dragging the women behind them with their flesh scraping off on the tarred road.  Before she passed out from the pain, the woman heard the men shouting, “This is a war.  We will keep fighting until we win.”

After finally being dumped on a roadside, it took her three days to receive hospital treatment for her by-then infected wounds.

Her story is just one of multiplied thousands that could be told, of the sheer brutality of the Mugabe regime, desperate to hold on to power, willing to stop at nothing to eliminate its opponents.  In an area east of the city of Bulawayo, youth militia armed with AK-47s stopped traffic and ordered people off buses, then forced them at gunpoint to chant slogans praising Zanu-PF.  They were beaten if they did not do so.  The thugs said, “There will be a re-run for the presidential election and if you try and vote for the MDC again we will go to war.  We are not asking you to vote Zanu, we are ordering you – or else you will be killed.”

In the lower-income Harare suburb of Glenview, soldiers went house to house, beating up men and youths.  And this was just the tip of the iceberg.  Reports continue to pour in of the burning of people’s houses, beatings and torture – including burning molten plastic being dripped onto men’s backs.  The MDC has stated that at least 10 of their supporters have been murdered so far, 500 have been hospitalised since the elections, and some 3000 have been displaced from their homes.  On the 25th April, the Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights reported that they had treated 62 people over a three-day period who had suffered violence and torture, and that this number under-reports the true total.  Nine of these were women, and one was 84 years old.  She was struck in the face with stones when she opened her door to unknown assailants, and she sustained serious facial injuries.  The youngest was a one-year-old baby boy who suffered gastroenteritis with dehydration when he slept in the bush with his mother after their home was burnt down. 

In addition, on the 25th April the MDC headquarters was invaded by riot police, who arrested scores of people there, many of whom were injured people who had fled the rural areas to seek safety in the MDC headquarters.  Zanu-PF spread propaganda that those arrested were actually criminals who had participated in post-election violence – but this lie was exposed by the fact that 24 of those arrested were babies and 40 were children under the age of six!

And then – another development during these extraordinary weeks: a Chinese ship, carrying six containers holding 77 tons of armaments destined for the Zimbabwe Defence Ministry, docked at the outer anchorage of the harbour in Durban, South Africa.  The armaments consisted of millions of rounds of AK-47 ammunition, rocket-propelled grenades, mortar bombs and mortar tubes for launching them.  Clearly these weapons were being sent by Mugabe’s Red Chinese buddies to help him violently clamp down on all who oppose him.  The Chinese denied it, of course, saying it was coincidental that the weapons were arriving now, but no one was believing that.  Also, just as clearly, it was obviously felt that a South African port could be used, given the warm and cozy relations between SA’s ruling ANC and Zimbabwe’s Zanu-PF.  In the words of the editor of Noseweek, the South African investigative magazine which first blew the whistle on the ship, “the lack of an official reaction, added to the fact that the ship arrived at a South African port rather than going on the usual Mozambican route, suggests that the South African government was involved in the deal from the start and that it has been actively facilitating the deal.” 

But although the SA government would doubtless have let the arms through, things went very wrong for them: when the information relating to the ship and its cargo was made public, massive opposition, within SA itself, from ordinary citizens, turned the whole matter into an embarrassment for the ANC, and the ship was prevented from offloading its cargo.    The opposition Democratic Alliance’s defence spokesman said, correctly, “The world’s astonishment at President Mbeki’s political defence of Robert Mugabe will likely turn into outright anger as we are now not only denying the existence of a crisis in Zimbabwe, but also actively facilitating the arming of an increasingly despotic and desperate regime.”

Trade unionists at Durban harbour refused to handle the cargo, and religious leaders obtained a High Court order against the arms being offloaded and taken across SA to Zimbabwe.  And shortly thereafter the ship sailed out of South African waters with its cargo.

From within Zimbabwe itself, ecumenical religious leaders warned on April 22 that post-election violence could reach genocidal proportions unless the international community intervened.  “We warn the world that if nothing is done to help the people of Zimbabwe from their predicament, we shall soon be witnessing genocide similar to that experienced in Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and other hot spots in Africa and elsewhere,” they said.  “Organised violence perpetrated against individuals, families and communities who are accused of campaigning or voting for the ‘wrong’ political party… has been unleashed throughout the country.  People are being abducted, tortured, humiliated…”  It also said there was widespread famine in the countryside.  They were correct in all these statements.

But let it be clearly understood: in no way does this recent stance by certain religious leaders and trade unions in any way turn these people into the “good guys” in SA!  These were the very same men and women who supported Zanu-PF’s terrorist revolution against the white Rhodesian government in the 1970s, and the ANC’s terrorist revolution against the white South African government in the 1970s and 1980s.  They are, to a large measure, responsible for the coming to power of both these terrorist organisations!  And yet now we are witnessing Marxist-supporting ecclesiastical leaders and others opposing the Marxist government in Zimbabwe.  Why?  Well, as so often happens, these liberal, Bible-denying, Bible-distorting, false “church” leaders, wolves in sheep’s clothing, throw their weight behind Marxist revolutions, thinking in their blind naivety that once the revolutionaries succeed, they will usher in some kind of earthly Utopia; and then, when it doesn’t happen, and when the same Marxists they helped to power turn out to be far worse than the governments they replaced – as inevitably happens – these “clergymen” then are shocked that their political heroes have let them down so badly.  At least that’s true of some of them.  For the rest, they are menpleasers: they keep a close eye on which way the wind of political opinion is blowing, and they are quick to position themselves as the supposed “defenders of the oppressed”, if it appears that the tide is turning against their former “heroes”.  Robert Mugabe was enthusiastically supported, in the 1970s, by leftist religious leaders in Rhodesia and South Africa, who turned a blind eye to his atrocities; but only now that his people have turned against him are these same religious leaders turning against him as well.

It was pathetic to see Allan Boesak, one such Christ-denying cleric, lamenting the terrible state of Zimbabwe, and yet this man used to preach openly in front of the Communist hammer-and-sickle flag in South Africa!

  Of course, these religious leaders lost no time in comparing what Mugabe is doing in Zimbabwe to “apartheid” in South Africa.  And many will nod their heads and say, “Yes, they’re the same.”  No they are not!  Not in the least.  SA’s white government fought against Marxist guerillas who were using violence and terror against the population in order to come to power; the State was right in clamping down, and clamping down hard, on these murderers.  In Zimbabwe, however, Mugabe has not been clamping down against terrorists, he has been brutally suppressing his own people, who have not risen up in violence against him.  He has been responsible for the violence!  There is a world of difference between the two cases.  But the religious leaders will go on comparing the two nevertheless, deliberately misleading the ignorant.

So: what is going to happen next?  Quite frankly, no one knows.  There are three possibilities: Mugabe finally concedes defeat and steps down; or the brutal suppression of all who do not support Mugabe continues until the opposition is utterly smashed; or there is a civil war as pro- and anti-Mugabe forces clash.  The first scenario is, humanly speaking, unlikely in the extreme, and would be virtually miraculous if it occurred; the second is, as things stand now, what is likely to occur, for it has already started and it is horrendously vicious and brutal; and the third, if it occurs, could lead to a protracted war in which untold thousands die and not only Zimbabwe but the entire southern African region is destabilised, as multiplied thousands of refugees continue to pour into South Africa, Botswana, Zambia, and other neighbouring countries.

The situation is extremely grave.  The rest of the world does not fully appreciate how all of southern Africa sits on a knife-edge right now. 

This fearful situation in South Africa’s neighbouring country bodes ill for the future of elections in South Africa as well.  If and when, one day, the ANC loses an election, will it also resort to the kind of violence that has been unleashed across Zimbabwe?  Considering the cozy relationship between Mbeki and Mugabe, and between Mbeki’s ANC and Mugabe’s Zanu, it is a most distinct possibility.  SA is a Communist-controlled country now, just like Zimbabwe.  And when Marxists come to power in Africa, most of them do not leave power voluntarily, but only feet first and in a horizontal position. That is the grim reality.  Ominously, the signs are all there that SA has already slid far down that slope.

ландшафтное освещение монтажАлександр Фильчаков прокурор

Internet 10 000 times faster?

THE internet could soon be made obsolete. The scientists who pioneered it have now built a lightning-fast replacement capable of downloading entire feature films within seconds.

At speeds about 10,000 times faster than a typical broadband connection, “the grid” will be able to send the entire Rolling Stones back catalogue from Britain to Japan in less than two seconds.

The latest spin-off from Cern, the particle physics centre that created the web, the grid could also provide the kind of power needed to transmit holographic images; allow instant online gaming with hundreds of thousands of players; and offer high-definition video telephony for the price of a local call.

David Britton, professor of physics at Glasgow University and a leading figure in the grid project, believes grid technologies could “revolutionise” society. “With this kind of computing power, future generations will have the ability to collaborate and communicate in ways older people like me cannot even imagine,” he said.

The power of the grid will become apparent this summer after what scientists at Cern have termed their “red button” day – the switching-on of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the new particle accelerator built to probe the origin of the universe. The grid will be activated at the same time to capture the data it generates.

Cern, based near Geneva, started the grid computing project seven years ago when researchers realised the LHC would generate annual data equivalent to 56m CDs – enough to make a stack 40 miles high.

This meant that scientists at Cern – where Sir Tim Berners-Lee invented the web in 1989 – would no longer be able to use his creation for fear of causing a global collapse.

This is because the internet has evolved by linking together a hotchpotch of cables and routing equipment, much of which was originally designed for telephone calls and therefore lacks the capacity for high-speed data transmission.

By contrast, the grid has been built with dedicated fibre optic cables and modern routing centres, meaning there are no outdated components to slow the deluge of data. The 55,000 servers already installed are expected to rise to 200,000 within the next two years.

Professor Tony Doyle, technical director of the grid project, said: “We need so much processing power, there would even be an issue about getting enough electricity to run the computers if they were all at Cern. The only answer was a new network powerful enough to send the data instantly to research centres in other countries.”

That network, in effect a parallel internet, is now built, using fibre optic cables that run from Cern to 11 centres in the United States, Canada, the Far East, Europe and around the world.

One terminates at the Rutherford Appleton laboratory at Harwell in Oxfordshire.

From each centre, further connections radiate out to a host of other research institutions using existing high-speed academic networks.

It means Britain alone has 8,000 servers on the grid system – so that any student or academic will theoretically be able to hook up to the grid rather than the internet from this autumn.

Ian Bird, project leader for Cern’s high-speed computing project, said grid technology could make the internet so fast that people would stop using desktop computers to store information and entrust it all to the internet.

“It will lead to what’s known as cloud computing, where people keep all their information online and access it from anywhere,” he said.

Computers on the grid can also transmit data at lightning speed. This will allow researchers facing heavy processing tasks to call on the assistance of thousands of other computers around the world. The aim is to eliminate the dreaded “frozen screen” experienced by internet users who ask their machine to handle too much information.

The real goal of the grid is, however, to work with the LHC in tracking down nature’s most elusive particle, the Higgs boson. Predicted in theory but never yet found, the Higgs is supposed to be what gives matter mass.

The LHC has been designed to hunt out this particle – but even at optimum performance it will generate only a few thousand of the particles a year. Analysing the mountain of data will be such a large task that it will keep even the grid’s huge capacity busy for years to come.

Although the grid itself is unlikely to be directly available to domestic internet users, many telecoms providers and businesses are already introducing its pioneering technologies. One of the most potent is so-called dynamic switching, which creates a dedicated channel for internet users trying to download large volumes of data such as films. In theory this would give a standard desktop computer the ability to download a movie in five seconds rather than the current three hours or so.

Additionally, the grid is being made available to dozens of other academic researchers including astronomers and molecular biologists.

It has already been used to help design new drugs against malaria, the mosquito-borne disease that kills 1m people worldwide each year. Researchers used the grid to analyse 140m compounds – a task that would have taken a standard internet-linked PC 420 years.

“Projects like the grid will bring huge changes in business and society as well as science,” Doyle said.

“Holographic video conferencing is not that far away. Online gaming could evolve to include many thousands of people, and social networking could become the main way we communicate.

“The history of the internet shows you cannot predict its real impacts but we know they will be huge.”

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Belgian invents ‘Holocaust’ tale

A Belgian woman whose tale of survival with a pack of wolves in Nazi-occupied Europe became a hit film has revealed that she invented the story.

Monique De Wael, who adopted the pseudonym Misha Defonseca, also admitted that she was not Jewish.

Her revelations came in an interview with the Belgian daily Le Soir, which said more than six million people had already seen Surviving With Wolves.

"It’s not actual reality, but it was my reality," she told Le Soir.

"It was my way of surviving… I seek forgiveness from those who feel betrayed, but I implore them to put themselves in the position of a little four-year-old girl who has lost everything, who has to survive."

‘Different life’

The story, presented as autobiographical, tells of a little Jewish girl whose parents are arrested and deported by the Nazis in 1941.

She goes in search of them across Belgium, Germany and Poland, with only the wolves for company. The book was first published in 1997.

In reality, De Wael says her non-Jewish parents were in the resistance but were indeed deported by the Nazis.

She says she then stayed with her grandfather and was "treated badly".

"It’s true that I’ve always felt Jewish… it’s true that I’ve always created a different life for myself, a life that cut me off from my family, a life far from the people I hated," she said.

Her true story came to light after suspicions were voiced in Belgium about her tale, prompting Le Soir to seek clarifications from her.

компрессорыОлександр Фільчаков прокурор

Is black SA turning old friends into foes?

The letters came within two days of each other. The first was an invitation from Professor Georges Harault, director of the French Institute of South Africa (IFAS). Three years after my last visit to South Africa to assess the perception of Francophone African literatures in universities, IFAS was again inviting me as visiting scholar.

The second was from Chris Dunton, the chairperson of the English Department of the National University of Lesotho at Roma. Like Harault, Dunton was inviting me to Lesotho as visiting scholar.

I arranged a few other engagements and braced up for a very engaging psychic reconnection with the African continent.

‘Ah, the good old days of apartheid!’

I needed the return to Africa badly. I had been away from the continent for an uncomfortable stretch, carrying out my scholarly labour in the minefield of North American academe, writing Africa "from a rift", as Achille Mbembe would put it. I also needed a reprieve from the oppression of the North American media image of Africa.

The African living here is in constant danger of accepting whatever image of Africa he or she is presented by the media as gospel truth.

In North America, I have been consistently assailed, assaulted, and oppressed with images of Africa traceable to the colonial library: Africa-as-Aids, Africa-as-hunger, Africa-as-civil war, Africa-as-corruption, Africa-as-the-antithesis-of-democracy, Africa-as-everything-we-are-glad- not-to-be.

You get tired of the ritual of explaining to charmingly ignorant interlocutors that there is a fundamental distinction between the Africa they see on CNN and the real Africa.

I also wanted a break from Occidentalism. Fernando Coronil, the scholar who coined this term, uses the concept to account for those discursive, usually innocuous processes through which the West turns difference into hierarchy and reproduces existing asymmetrical power relations. Occidentalism covers all the mundane quotidian events through which the West constantly reminds the immigrant of his otherness, strangeness, and difference.

‘Truth is our right, Jah is our might, we must free South Africa’

Departure date finally came around. "Be careful. Urban violence is rife in South Africa," the Nigerian friends who drove me to the airport warned. I shrugged and dismissed their anxiety. There may be violence in South Africa; I certainly was not going to be scared of returning to Africa. I wasn’t going to be afraid of black people in Africa.

I arrived in Johannesburg on a cold July morning. A delighted Harault was on hand at the airport to welcome me. We drove straight to the offices of IFAS located in downtown Johannesburg.

Later I announced to Harault that I was going to take a stroll. I was eager to get a feel of the same streets I had seen three years earlier.

Harault’s countenance changed. "Be careful. Don’t go out there with your wallet. You could get mugged." I assured Harault I would be all right but took the precaution of leaving my valuables in his office.

I started my walk on the busy Bree Street. For someone who had walked the same street three years earlier, I could not help but observe the heavy black presence. Like the Hillbrow area, blacks have taken over downtown Johannesburg.

The official principle of separate development through which racial segregation was enforced under apart-heid seems to have been replaced by what one may call an unofficial principle of voluntary separation.

While separate development instituted an order in which blacks had to move out whenever whites moved in, as was the case in Sophiatown, voluntary separation now induces whites to move out quietly whenever and wherever blacks move in.

In office complexes and shopping malls, one does not fail to notice the ubiquitous "To Let" signs, evidence of white retreat to "safe" areas of the city like Rosebank or back "home" to Britain, Holland, Canada and Australia.

I was about to cross a busy intersection when a street sign told me I was on Fox Street. Fox street! I had heard a lot of terrifying things about that street since my last trip to South Africa. It is said to be one of the most violent streets in Johannesburg. One could get mugged or killed for as little as R100. I looked around me anxiously.

I was surrounded by a sea of inscrutable black faces. I touched my forehead and found out, much to my irritation, that I was perspiring profusely. It was winter in South Africa! And to my utter embarrassment, I discovered that I relaxed and felt safer each time white faces appeared in the crowd. Here was I, a black man, looking anxiously for white faces to feel safe from black violence in an African city!

I reluctantly came to the realisation that I was far more affected by the oppression of the image of "black violence" in South Africa than I had been willing to admit.

The image of the post-apartheid black condition in South Africa always have two constantly-repeated, over-sensationalised buzzwords: mugging, robbery.

That image had quietly slipped into my subconscious and was responsible for my feeling so uneasy amidst my own kind in a busy street in Johannesburg. I hurried back to IFAS.

On hearing that I had arrived in Johannesburg, Professor Harry Garuba came from his base at the University of Cape Town to spend a weekend with me. After a joyful reunion we hit town.

Harry wanted to see downtown Johannesburg. He also needed to go to the Consulate-General of Nigeria in Rosebank.

As we meandered our way through the ever busy Bree Street, Harry could not help observing how filthy downtown Johannesburg had become.

I had made the same disturbing observation myself the day I arrived, but had been reluctant to accept the disturbing fact that decay of public infrastructure seems to be the story in areas of the city inhabited by blacks.

Predominantly black areas have become an eyesore. The beautiful lawns and flowerbeds I noticed in some areas three years earlier now tell sad stories of degradation.

Some of them have become open-air urinals. Harry and I were worried. We tried to place ourselves in the shoes of white South Africans discussing the now filthy streets of Hillbrow and downtown Johannesburg: "Ah, the good old days of apartheid!"

When Harry concluded his business at the Nigerian consulate, we took a bus and headed back to Hrault’s residence.

I still don’t know what it was about us that gave us away as foreigners but the other passengers, all blacks, lapsed into an uneasy silence as soon as we entered. I looked at the faces around us and thought I saw hostility.

The tension in the air was so thick you could cut it with a knife. Harry confirmed my worst fears when we left the bus. I had just experienced, firsthand, South African xenophobia and I was to experience it again and again throughout my three-month sojourn in that country.

Harry explained to me with the coolness of someone used to it that the black South African passengers on the bus had identified us as makwerekwere, hence the naked hostility.

Makwerekwere is the derogatory term used by black South Africans to describe non-South African blacks. It reminds one of how the ancient Greeks referred to foreigners whose language they did not understand as the Barbaroi.

To the black South African, makwerekwere refers to black immigrants from the rest of Africa, especially Nigerians. I was confounded by the fact that black South Africa had begun to manufacture its own k*****s so soon after apartheid.

As I later discovered after a series of encounters, black South Africans have found an easy explanation for the myriad problems of poverty, housing, transportation, unemployment, crime, violence, decay of public and social infrastructure.

"Ah, the makwerekwere! These Nigerians are all criminals! When they are not busy trafficking drugs, they are taking over our jobs, our houses and, worse, our women.

"All foreigners must leave this country!" What Salman Rushdie refers to as a "demonising process" of the Other is at work here and the consequences are predictably disastrous.

There is so much anger and frustration among the Nigerians I met in South Africa. Most of them have become paranoid, living permanently in fear.

In a discussion with some Nigerian medical doctors in Pretoria, I observed that their anger is directed more at black South African leaders.

"Imagine these South Africans treating us like this. They think apartheid came to an end because they fought in Sharpeville and Soweto. It means Mandela never told them the truth. Mbeki never told them the truth."

The doctors were referring to Nigeria’s heavy moral, political, and financial investment in the anti-apartheid struggle.

Nigeria’s financial and political commitment to that cause was total and unflinching. In the 1970s and 1980s, the South African freedom struggle was completely woven into Nigeria’s national imagery, so much so that a Nigerian leader, Olusegun Obasanjo, suggested we mobilised "African juju" and other maraboutic forces of African sorcery to attack PW Botha and free our black brothers in South Africa. And he wasn’t joking.

Every Nigerian musician, from reggae singers to fuji musicians in the Yoruba tradition, waxed radical anti-apartheid lyrics to energise the 1970s to 1980s. "Who owns the land, who owns the land?

"We want to know who owns Papa’s land," crooned Sonny Okosuns. Majek Fashek, the reggae man replied: "Now, now, now, Margaret Thatcher, free Mandela!" Victor Eshiet of The Mandators screamed: "Truth is our right, Jah is our might, we must free South Africa."

Everywhere you turned in the Nigeria of those heady decades, freedom for black South Africans was the dominant national agenda.

Black South Africans, including President Thabo Mbeki, found warmth, hospitality, and friendship during their years of exile in Nigeria. Many black South Africans attended Nigerian universities on Nigerian scholarships.

When it became clear that South African whites, like their European and American kinsmen, were determined to make peaceful change impossible and make violent change inevitable, Nigerians donated money to the armed struggle.

Personally, I recall donating money during special anti-apartheid fundraisers as a high school student in Nigeria.

In view of this, the Nigerians I met in South Africa had only two words to describe the attitude of black South Africans to them: collective amnesia.

Prejudice has been the force majeure of so much of human history. Our pantheon of small-minded hate is formidable: Christian prejudice manufactured the unbeliever; Islamic prejudice manufactured the infidel; heterosexual prejudice manufactured the faggot; patriarchal prejudice manufactured the hysteric; European prejudice Truth is our right, Jah is our might, we must free South Africa manufactured the native; American prejudice manufactured the n****r; German prejudice manufactured the Jew; Israeli prejudice manufactured the Araboushim; Afrikaner prejudice manufactured the k****r.

Not to be outdone, black South Africa has manufactured the ma-kwerekwere as her unique post-apartheid contribution to this gory pantheon.

The joy of your instant-mix coffee or your instant-mix powdered milk is the considerable labour and hassle it saves you.

Just pour water, add sugar to taste, and your drink is ready. The makwere-kwere is black South Africa’s instant-mix k****r, very easily produced with minimum labour.

Pius Adesanmi is Associate Professor of English and director, Project on New African Literatures (www.projectponal.com) at Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada.

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Europe divided over Kosovo

But while the four major EU powers – Britain, France, Germany, and Italy – announced they would recognise the new state, Spain and several other countries which have problems with their own separatist groups said they would not do so.

Russia warned it would set a dangerous precedent for separatist groups worldwide.

Ninety per cent of Kosovo’s two million people are ethnic Albanian – mostly secular Muslims – who saw no reason to be part of Christian Orthodox Serbia.

As word of the recognition spread, cheering ethnic Albanians poured into the streets of Pristina.

But tensions flared in northern Kosovo, home to most of the territory’s minority Serbs.

An explosion damaged a UN vehicle outside the ethnically divided town of Kosovska Mitrovica, where thousands of Serbs demonstrated, chanting "This is Serbia!"

Serbia is preparing to ask the UN Security Council to condemn Kosovo’s declaration of independence as illegal, and last night it recalled its ambassador to the U.S. in protest against Washington’s recognition of the breakaway state.

Spain, like Russia, is grappling with its own separatist movements and believes it would not be in its interest to back the former territory of Yugoslavia.

"The government of Spain will not recognise the unilateral act proclaimed yesterday by the assembly of Kosovo," Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos told reporters on arrival for a meeting of EU foreign ministers.

He said that to be legal, secession from Serbia required either an agreement between the parties or a UN Security Council resolution.

Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Miliband said it was "critical" for the European Union to show leadership on the western Balkans and to maintain peace and stability there.

"I think it’s very important that we recognise that all of the countries in the Western Balkans are European countries," he said.

"It is critical that Europe shows real leadership in how it ensures that peace and stability are the order of the day in the Western Balkans."

Aside from Spain, at least five – Cyprus, Greece, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania – have indicated they will not recognise Kosovo due to legal misgivings or concern about restive minorities in their own countries.

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana urged restraint after Serbian nationalists stoned Western embassies in Belgrade in anger at the declaration of independence by Kosovo’s Albanians.

"The EU has already decided to send a mission, a mission of stability, a mission of rule of law.

It should contribute to the stability of the Balkans," Solana told reporters.

The EU agreed on Saturday to send 2,000 police, justice and civil administrators to help build Kosovo’s institutions.

NATO said in a statement its 17,000-strong KFOR stabilisation force would "respond resolutely to any attempts to disrupt the safety and security of the population of Kosovo".

EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said Kosovo was a unique case and would not set a precedent.

He praised Kosovan leaders for promising to respect minority rights in line with a plan drafted by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari.

Russia, Serbia’s closest ally, prevented the UN Security Council from adopting his blueprint for supervised independence last year.

That led Kosovo to declare statehood in coordination with Western powers.

Q and A

Why did Kosovo want independence?

Some 90 per cent of the population is Albanian. Demands for independence were ignored amid the wider Balkan wars of the 1990s until an armed rebellion was launched towards the end of the decade.

Serb forces hit back so hard in 1998 that 100,000 Albanians fled to the hills and Nato powers warned Serb leader Slobodan Milosevic they would not tolerate another round of "ethnic cleansing" in the Balkans.

Peace talks in France failed and in March 1999 Nato started bombing Serbia to force it to withdraw its forces from Kosovo. Some 800,000 Albanians fled or were expelled to Macedonia and Albania before Milosevic gave in 78 days later. As his forces pulled out, up to 200,000 Serbs and other ethnic minorities left as well.

How has Kosovo been run up to now?

Kosovo has been administered by the United Nations, with Nato troops as peacekeepers, since 1999. Unemployment is more than 50 per cent. Kosovo’s uncertain future has deterred outside investment.

Spasms of ethnic violence, mostly by Albanians against Serbs, and organised traffic of contraband and people, have tarnished its image.

What will happen next?

Following Sunday’s declaration of independence by the Kosovo parliament, the procedure is likely to follow a plan drawn up by UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari for "supervised independence" which was rejected by Serbia.

Under the plan, a 120-day transitional period will follow a declaration and full independence would then come into effect.

How will the world react?

EU foreign ministers met in Brussels yesterday and the majority of member states were in favour of independence. Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia, Spain and Greece are not, fearing it could set a precedent for separatist groups in their own countries among other reasons.

Russia has firmly rejected the Kosovo move and wants the United Nations to annul the declaration.

Why is Russia so opposed?

Russia considers Serbia to share a Slavic and Orthodox Christian tradition and parts of the Belgrade government have actively courted Moscow’s support in recent months. Serbia’s oil monopoly was recently sold to Russia’s Gazprom for what was considered a low price.

Traditionally an ally of Serbia, Russia is concerned by the EU’s expansion into the Balkans and Moscow believes Kosovo would set a precedent.

There is little difference, according to the Kremlin, between the separatism of Kosovo and the ambitions of pro-Russian areas such as Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia and Trans-Dniester in Moldova.

What will happen to Kosovo’s Serb minority?

An estimated 120,000 ethnic Serbs live in Kosovo, many in Serb-dominated areas north of the Ibar river, adjoining Serbia proper. Half of the population lives under Nato protection in scattered enclaves south of the Ibar river.

Under the Ahtisaari plan, the Serb minority would have guaranteed places in local government and parliament, proportionate representation in the police and civil service, and a special status for the Serbian Orthodox Church.

Is there a risk of violence?

Yes. Nato forces have stepped up their state of alert, especially in ethnically mixed areas of Kosovo. Commanders have promised more patrols.

The key question is whether they will be able to control flashpoints such as the main northern town of Mitrovica, where ethnic Serbs live north of the Ibar river and ethnic Albanians to the south.

Could the violence spread?

The nightmare scenario would involve Kosovo Serbs who live south of the Ibar river being violently driven from their homes, and the expulsion of ethnic Albanians living in enclaves in northern Kosovo, and in the Presevo and Bujanovac regions of southern Serbia.

It could go further than that. There are large ethnic Albanian communities in Macedonia and Montenegro, some of whom might seek a union with Kosovo.

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‘End of Europe’

RIA Novosti asked a number of top political analysts / experts to comment on the words of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who has said that Kosovo’s independence could be the beginning of the end for Europe, and that official recognition of its sovereignty will threaten global security.

What, we asked, will be the geopolitical consequences of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence?

Alexander Rahr, a political analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the Valdai International Discussion Club, said:

Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence, and especially its recognition by European countries, would open up a Pandora’s Box. It may create a precedent for other separatist republics and autonomous regions, which would demand similar action and the same rights that may be granted to Kosovars.

Lavrov has a legal point. Basques may demand secession from Spain, Tiroleans could secede from Italy and Hungarians from Romania. North Caucasians may demand secession from Russia, and Bavaria may insist on independence from the Federal Republic of Germany.

But the West thinks that Lavrov is dramatizing the situation, because separatism mostly stems from economic problems, while Europe hopes that its economy is strong and stable enough not to give rise to separatism.

But the threat does exist, and Lavrov’s words, which are not considered important today, could become significant a few years from now.

John Laughland, co-author of the book ‘Russia: The New Cold War?’ and a member of the Valdai International Discussion Club, said:

As you know, I support the Russian position on Kosovo because it has the merit of coherence, whereas the West’s position is inconsistent and self-contradictory.  The West (EU + US) supports the independence of Kosovo but opposes the independence of Flanders, Northern Cyprus, of Republika Srpska in Bosnia, of Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia etc.  The West also opposes the division of Kosovo, whereas only Serbs live North of Mitrovica.  Independence for Kosovo will stimulate similar calls for independence in Western Macedonia and the Presevo valley.  It may indirectly cause unrest in the Caucasus too.

Moreover, Kosovo will not actually be independent.  The EU will take over from the UN its protectorate functions.  Elaborate plans have been made for sending thousands of EU officials and police to "post-status" Kosovo, while the 16,000 NATO troops will remain.  Kosovo would have had more real independence within Serbia than it has had under the UN or will have in Europe.

Lavrov is right to say that the independence of Kosovo will be the beginning of the end of today’s Europe because the current status of Kosovo is fixed by a UN Security Council Resolution (1244).  If the EU and the US override that resolution, which says Kosovo is part of Serbia, they will have once again demonstrated their contempt for international law and shown themselves to be unreliable international partners.

Kosovo resembles Bosnia in the period 1878 – 1914.  In 1878, the Treaty of Berlin put Bosnia under provisional Austrian administration while stipulating that it remained part of the Ottoman empire.  In 1908, Austria violated the terms of the Treaty and annexed the territory directly.  Serbia protested, but in vain.  Ten years later the Archduke Franz-Ferdinand was assassinated by a Serb patriot in Sarajevo.  The rest, as they say, is history.

Jan Carnogursky, prime minister of Slovakia in 1991 and 1992, an expert on Kosovo and a member of the Valdai International Discussion Club, said:

The recognition of Kosovo’s independence would be a tragedy for Serbs, for whom Kosovo is a foundation and an inalienable part of their national history.

The Serbian state was born in Kosovo and adjacent territories in the 9th and 10th centuries. Serbian orthodoxy is also rooted there, since St. Savva, the most revered saint in Serbia, founded many monasteries in Kosovo in the early 13th century. The province was also the core of the Serbian state during its prime in the mid-14th century.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Kosovo’s independence could be the beginning of the end for Europe. This is a dramatic, although essentially correct, view of the problem.

Moscow has never approved of the Western policy toward Kosovo and former Yugoslavia as a whole. Although it played a key role in stopping the war in 1999, Russia was the only member of the Contact Group that was not assigned its own sector of responsibility in the province. When the Russian paratroopers made their march to Pristina in June 1999, Serbs were jubilant, because they have always viewed Russia’s presence as the best guarantee of their rights.

Unfortunately, developments in Kosovo show that geopolitics can easily defeat moral and legal principles in the 21st century. The secession of Kosovo from Serbia without the agreement of Belgrade would create a precedent for Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdnestr and give Moscow a moral right to recognize the independence of post-Soviet breakaway republics.

Daniel Vernet, director of the international relations desk at Le Monde and a member of the Valdai International Discussion Club in 2004, said:

I think [Lavrov’s] words are too dramatic. The decision on Kosovo’s independence is far from ideal; but given the current situation, it is the lesser of many evils. If I remember correctly, it is the policy that [Slobodan] Milosevic pursued since 1989 that is to blame for the current situation.

As for geopolitical consequences, I don’t think anyone would benefit from using Kosovo’s independence as a pretext for destabilization in the Balkans or adjacent European regions. I think that common sense will dominate and the international consequences of Kosovo’s independence will be minimal.

James George Jatras, director of the American Council for Kosovo, said:

It appears that within days the UN-supervised Albanian Muslim administration in Kosovo will issue a unilateral declaration of independence followed by recognition by the United States and other countries. Serbia of course will reject such a development, as will Russia, and almost certainly China, whose vetoes in the Security Council the US would have circumvented.

It still seems underappreciated the extent to which the US action would shred any semblance of legality in the international system. It may be the first time a group of countries has purported to separate part of a state’s territory without its concession of that fact. (To be sure, many countries have been defeated and occupied and forced to sign treaties ceding land. Even Edvard Benes signed away the Sudetenland in 1938. No Serbian hand will ever sign away Kosovo). International guarantees of territorial integrity such as the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act would be a dead letter. 

The US action is also a heavy blow to perhaps the only part of the UN system with any real value: the Security Council, which has helped prevent any major war since 1945, much like the 19th century "Concert of Powers" helped ensure that no general war occurred in Europe from 1815 to 1914. Indeed, devaluing Russia’s standing in the Security Council by thwarting its veto is a big "plus" for Washington, whose message to Moscow is intended to be: "Whatever you might think, this is still 1999.  We can do as we please and you can’t stop us."

The US action — supported by our utterly slavish "allies" in Europe – will not settle Kosovo’s status. Kosovo’s current status is clear: it is part of Serbia with an international presence to which Serbia has reluctantly agreed. After a unilateral declaration of independence and some countries’ recognition, a competition would be kicked off between recognizing and non-recognizing states. Despite Washington’s absurd claim that Kosovo would not set a precedent, a government of any multiethnic state would recognize Kosovo at its peril. Kosovo would never become a member of the UN.

Serbia would recover control of the northern area of Kosovo and perhaps some of the enclaves. This would not be a prelude to partition, however, but the liberation of part of what then would be the illegal occupation of part of Serbia by an illegitimate, criminal, separatist regime in Pristina supported by aggressive foreign powers. It would be up to the Albanians and their supporters to decide whether to kick off a new cycle of violence by attacking the Serbs, who would live in fear that the remaining third of their pre-war population would be eradicated and the rest of their churches destroyed.

The Albanian-controlled areas of Kosovo would sink even deeper into the black hole of organized crime (drugs, slaves, arms) and jihad terror under a "government" composed of war criminals and kingpins in the Albanian Mafia. Far from stabilizing the western Balkans, instability would be perpetuated by alienation of Serbia, the only country of any consequence in the region.

Altogether, we are looking at the perfect "train wreck," as even proponents of independence are calling it: shattering the international legal system, US-Russia confrontation, violence on the ground, criminality, human rights violations, and a new frozen conflict. Who could ask for more?

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No more sushi

Israel’s nationwide sushi craze is being endangered by a wasabi-strength threat: The government, seeking to protect local jobs, wants to send all foreign-born Asian chefs packing by January 2009.

Asian food has become increasingly popular in Israel, fueled by the large number of young Israelis who travel to the region in an unofficial rite of passage after compulsory army service.

Thai, Chinese, Japanese and Indian restaurants have grown into a $280 million industry, accounting for 10 percent of the local dining landscape, according to the Ethnic Restaurant Association.

For the moment, Asian restaurants employ 900 foreign chefs and kitchen workers. But if the government has its way, that number could soon drop.

“We feel an Israeli can hold a wok as well as a Thai or a Chinese person,” said Shoshana Strauss, a lawyer at the Industry and Trade Ministry, which regulates work permits for foreign workers.

Restaurant operators said the Israeli plan posed an existential threat to their thriving businesses, saying the foreigners have expertise that cannot easily be replaced.

“If we don’t have cooks, we don’t have food. If we don’t have food, we don’t have customers,” said Steven Lobel, a sushi operator who owns two Asian restaurants that employ 14 Asian kitchen workers in the Tel Aviv area. “It’s pretty much one of the biggest threats we have as restaurant operators.”

This year, the government has limited the number of visas for foreign restaurant workers to 500. The restaurant association has appealed to the High Court of Justice.

But if the order is upheld, restaurants would have to lay off nearly half their foreign workers. In 2009, there will be no work visas for foreign chefs, only tourist visas permitting brief consulting opportunities for experts in Asian cuisine, according to the Industry and Trade Ministry.

Earlier this week, Israel’s Asian restaurants went on a one-day strike in protest over the government’s threat, giving the nation a taste of life without spicy tuna, California rolls and chopsticks.

Strauss said the government was not trying to eradicate foreign restaurant workers altogether. Instead, she said, the ministry was trying to eliminate unskilled kitchen workers, who she said are often exploited by restaurateurs who pay them less than minimum wage.

“They are well-behaved, they work very hard [and] they don’t demand their rights,” Strauss said, adding that the situation creates some “humanitarian issues.”

The ministry has begun to offer Asian cooking classes to Israelis, but few have shown interest, generating skepticism that there will be Israelis to fill the soon-to-be vacated positions.

“I doubt this will succeed,” said Arnon Volosky, chief executive of the Ethnic Restaurant Association. He cited examples in London, New York and Paris, where ethnic restaurants often employ foreign chefs who specialize in their home cuisine.

“I don’t think you go into an ethnic restaurant anywhere in the world and see only locals working there,” Lobel said. For each foreign worker, seven Israelis are employed rolling sushi, waiting tables or working the wok, he said.

“What we do is help people have fun in this hectic country we live in,” Lobel said. “Everyone’s enjoying it, we’re creating job opportunities for locals.”

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Defeat a “real possibility” in Afghanistan

NATO is in disarray and the West faces defeat in Afghanistan unless it overhauls its counter-insurgency and reconstruction strategy, Britain’s Paddy Ashdown wrote in an article published on Wednesday.

Ashdown, who was rejected last month by Afghan President Hamid Karzai for the post of senior U.N. envoy to the country, called in the Financial Times for renewed efforts to win Taliban moderates away from the insurgency.

"With fighting in Afghanistan now entering its seventh year, no agreed international strategy, public support on both sides of the Atlantic crumbling, NATO in disarray and widening insecurity in Afghanistan, defeat is now a real possibility…

"We have not lost in Afghanistan … But we will lose if we do not start doing things differently," he warned.

Ashdown said the consequences of failure in Afghanistan would be appalling.

"Global terrorism would have won back its old haven and created a new one over the border in a mortally weakened Pakistan," he said.

Ashdown called for more cooperation between international military and civilian efforts and a greater focus on governance and the rule of law across in a country where corruption and lawlessness is widespread.

Of an international security effort which has at times caused civilian casualties, he said:

"Breaking up the Taliban by winning over the moderates is a far better route to success than bombing and body counts."

U.S.-led forces toppled the Taliban government in 2001, but Taliban rebels launched an insurgency two years ago and violence has risen sharply since then.

Washington has called on NATO allies to send more troops to Afghanistan and to commit more of them to the south of the country where the Taliban insurgency is strongest.

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Chad rebels raise stakes for Africa

Idriss Déby, Chad’s president, faced the gravest threat to his 17-year rule this weekend when rebels stormed the capital and fought their way to the gates of his palace. But within 24 hours the man dubbed the “cowboy of the sands” appeared to have regained the initiative, personally ordering counter-attacks as the guerrillas fell back.

Gunfire rattling through the capital N’Djamena on Monday showed that the battle for the city, and Chad, is not over. But the stakes for the region, and for western policy in Africa, will be huge whatever Mr Déby’s fate.

If he survives, he will emerge stronger, the crisis emphasising his importance to western strategy in containing the Darfur conflict across the border in Sudan.

“The rebels are giving it their best shot,” said Reed Brody, a lawyer at Human Rights Watch who follows Chad. “It’s not over, but if he does turn it back it will show that he has more staying power than many people think.”

But if Mr Déby falls, the conflict in Darfur could worsen, plans to deploy European Union troops in Chad may stall, and turmoil could spill into Central African Republic, potentially destabilising a swathe of Africa. Chad, a landlocked, arid country in the Sahelian belt straddling Arab and black Africa, has received scant outside attention compared with Sudan, where the US has described the conflict in Darfur as “genocide”.

Quietly though, Chad has co-operated with the US “war on terror”, allowing American forces to train its troops as part of a wider plan to stop extremists infiltrating the Sahel.

More overtly, Mr Déby has proved crucial to western strategy for Darfur, having agreed to host a 3,700-strong EU force to protect refugees and Chadian civilians.

Mr Déby is, however, a far from neutral bystander. Although he was originally installed with Khartoum’s help in 1990, his support for Darfur rebels from his Zaghawa community has angered his former friends. Observers say the Sudanese government has adopted Chadian rebels in the hope of ousting Mr Déby and cutting supply lines to fractious insurgents in Darfur.

Some analysts say this weekend’s attack was motivated in part by Sudan’s desire to block the deployment of the mainly French EU force, which Mr Déby’s opponents feared would act as a bulwark to defend him.

In fact, Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, chose to break with his predecessor, Jacques Chirac, a long-time Déby ally, by denying direct military aid during the assault on the capital.

But should Mr Déby prove he can survive even without French support, he may end up looking more formidable.

Oil plays a big part. Revenues from crude flowing through a pipeline from Chad to Cameroon opened by a consortium led by ExxonMobil in 2003 have enriched his circle, and bought new weapons. Human rights groups say Mr Déby has used the crisis to eliminate opponents by rounding up civilian opposition leaders with no links to the rebels.

The crackdown has only underlined Mr Déby’s failure to solve a problem that has plagued Chad since independence: power struggles are waged not through the ballot box but by factions with guns. With the current coalition of rebels led by men such as Mahamat Nouri, Mr Déby’s former defence minister, and Timan Erdimi, a former member of Mr Déby’s ruling clan, observers treat their pledges to build democracy with extreme caution.

But the real winner if Mr Déby falls would be President Omar Hassan al-Bashir’s Islamist government in Sudan, who might feel encouraged to try to smash the Darfur rebels and even challenge Mr Déby’s allies in CAR.

“Khartoum would be very emboldened,” said Suliman Baldo, of the International Center for Transitional Justice. “They would escalate their military campaign to try and settle the Darfur issue on the battlefield.”

    About Idriss Déby

    ●Born into the northern Zaghawa community in 1952, near the border with Sudan
    ●Trained at a French military college, learning to pilot helicopters
    ●Defeated rebel forces in the 1980s as chief of staff for former Chadian dictator Hissene Habre, gaining a reputation as a clever tactician
    ●Seized power himself in 1990 after launching a three-week offensive from neighbouring Sudan
    ●Won elections in 1996 and 2001, though observers noted irregularities
    ●Won third election in 2006 after removing a constitutional two-term limit for the presidency. Opposition parties boycotted poll
    ●Key supporters began to defect, launching a series of rebel groups who buried their differences to unite for an assault on the capital at the weekend

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NATO chief trained by KGB

The new chief of the Hungarian secret services, who spent six years at the KGB’s academy in Moscow during the 1980s, has become chairman of NATO’s intelligence committee, a development that diplomats said could compromise the security of the alliance.

Sandor Laborc, 49, was personally chosen by Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany of Hungary as director of the country’s counterintelligence National Security Office in December, after a bitter dispute between the governing coalition led by the Socialists – the former Communists – and the main opposition party, Fidesz.

Laborc, a former Communist who was trained at the KGB’s Dzerzhinsky Academy from 1983 to 1989, according to members of the national security committee in the Hungarian Parliament, had failed to win support from that committee, which oversees such appointments.

Despite that, Gyurcsany and Gyorgy Szilvasy, the minister responsible for the intelligence services, pushed through the appointment.

"A decision by the National Security Committee has no binding effect," Gyurcsany’s office said in a statement issued in response to several written questions about Laborc from the International Herald Tribune. "Gyorgy Szilvasy had the right to make a decision in his own capacity and advise the prime minister. He justified the recommendation by introducing General Laborc as someone with unquestioned professional credentials."

Soon after his appointment, Laborc took over the chairmanship of NATO’s special committee dealing with a wide range of intelligence issues, a rotating post that is held for a year and which fell to Hungary last month, alliance officials confirmed Friday.

The committee, whose main task is to analyze and share intelligence, includes all of the secret service chiefs of NATO countries, who meet several times a year.

Several NATO delegations, including the United States, whose ambassador was asked several times to comment on Laborc’s appointment, declined to do so.

James Appathurai, a NATO spokesman, said, "We do not comment on personnel appointments or intelligence issues."

Some delegations said they had not been aware of Laborc’s biography. His short curriculum vitae posted on the Hungarian security service’s official Web site makes no mention of his time spent in Moscow. His past came to light when Szilvasy proposed him for the top intelligence job last autumn.

NATO diplomats who did agree to discuss the appointment insisted on anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. They said that even if they had reservations about Laborc, they were in no position to block his appointment.

"NATO makes decisions on the basis of consensus," said a senior diplomat from an East European country. "If we had questioned this appointment then we would have to go further up to the top, in this case the Hungarian prime minister, to ask him about Laborc’s past."

Another diplomat, from a Western country, said, "It would have taken one phone call by the U.S. ambassador to NATO to stop this appointment. It would have been a signal to other countries which might think they can still get away with this."

In its statement, Gyurcsany’s office said: "Not a single ambassador protested. Through diplomatic channels we received information that our partners are satisfied with the development of interagency cooperation."

In practice, Laborc’s appointment means that some NATO countries will be much more wary about sharing sensitive intelligence.

"Here we have a person who was trained by the KGB. I cannot assume that he has changed that much in his attitudes," said another NATO diplomat, predicting that several important NATO countries would hold back on sharing intelligence. "NATO, it must be said, is a very leaky organization," the diplomat added.

Indeed, NATO has been plagued with leaks. Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic joined the alliance in 1999, and the rest of the former Warsaw Pact countries in 2004. After that expansion, military attachés from the Bulgarian delegation did not receive clearance to have access to a certain level of intelligence material.

"You could bet that anything we shared with Bulgaria inside NATO went straight to Moscow ," said another senior Western European diplomat. "The old Communist nomenklatura and secret services is still around in Romania and Bulgaria. But I must say the case of Hungary is very, very disappointing."

Earlier, in the spring of 1999 when NATO was selecting bombing targets in its war to stop Serbian repression of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, Greece, a member of NATO and the European Union but an ally of Serbia during the Balkan wars of the 1990s, repeatedly leaked alliance plans to Belgrade, NATO diplomats said Friday.

In Hungary itself , Laborc’s appointment has deepened the mistrust and polarization between the governing Socialists and the Fidesz opposition because of the way the prime minister by-passed the Parliament’s national security committee.

Although the committee’s decision is not constitutionally binding, such committees have served as important instruments of democratic accountability since 1990, when the Communists were removed from power in Hungary.

Moreover, until 2002 when the Socialists won the parliamentary elections, any Hungarian official who had served for more than a year in Moscow could not, for security reasons, be appointed to positions higher than a department head.

"At stake is the fundamental regard for the rule of law," said Janos Martonyi, a former Hungarian foreign minister and Fidesz supporter. After a five-hour debate by the national security committee in late November, Laborc failed to win a majority of the 11 votes. No other candidate was offered by the government. The opposition declined to put forward a candidate.

Fidesz claims that Gyurcsany, a former Communist youth leader turned millionaire who has close ties to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, has been politicizing the secret services for domestic reasons in order to keep track of the opposition, the media and trade unions.

The opposition also has criticzed Gyurcsany for trying to push through austerity measures without public consultation or democratic accountability.

It has challenged the security services’ use of live ammunition against mostly peaceful demonstrators during protests in September 2006.

The protests had been set off by a leak of Gyurcsany’s speech to party supporters, soon after the spring 2006 elections, in which he said the party had lied "day and night" about the miserable state of the economy in order to win.

Zsolt Nemeth, chairman of the Parliament’s foreign affairs committee and a leading member of Fidesz, said it was "a great shame what is happening to the idea of democratic accountability."

He said the two biggest concerns over the Laborc appointment were that he would replace the young professionals who entered the services during the 1990s and bring back people loyal to Gyurcsany.

"Above all, our concern is that the security services will become politicized and be used for domestic politics," he added.

Peter Balazs, an economics professor at Central European University in Budapest and a supporter of the government, dismissed Fidesz’s criticisms.

"Much has changed in Hungary since Laborc’s time spent in Moscow over 20 years ago," he said. "This is all about internal politics. Just because someone was in Moscow during the 1980s, I don’t think that we should sack anybody after 20 years."

Besides the opposition, the United States and Britain are concerned about Gyurcsany’s relations with Putin, according to British diplomats in London.

Last year, Gyurcsany publicly supported Russia’s plans to build the South Stream pipeline that will compete with the EU project known as Nabucco, which is intended to weaken Europe’s dependence on Russian gas imports.

British diplomats, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that Gyurcsany had changed tack under American and British pressure. Then last December, during a meeting of the Hungarian and Russian cabinets in Budapest, Gyurcsany came out again in support of the South Stream project.

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The lights are going out

Years ago we wrote that South Africa was beginning to experience increasingly frequent power cuts. We have long predicted that this was going to get worse. And now – it has. Much, much worse. South Africa is facing a national emergency. The lights, quite literally, are being switched off, and there is no light at the end of this long, dark tunnel either. Not even a flicker.

When the African National Congress/Communist Party alliance came to power in 1994, it promised to provide electricity to millions of poor black people who had never had it before. Well, you can connect the homes of millions of people to the power grid, but unless you plan ahead for the huge increase in power usage by building more power stations, you are eventually going to reach the point where the existing stations are simply unable to cope with the vastly increased demand. This point has now been reached. The ANC promised “power to the people”, both politically and electrically; but it did not show any capacity for forward planning. Millions of homes were added to the power grid, but new plants were not built. The same electricity infrastructure that was in place in 1994 is still in place today. Eskom, SA’s electricity supplier and the country’s only purchaser of electricity, warned the ANC government a decade ago that new power plants had to be built to meet the increased demand; but the government, in its arrogant wisdom, refused to listen. And now Eskom is facing a crisis of unprecedented proportions. Its CEO, Jacob Maroga, put it plainly and simply when he said recently: “We have run out of reserve capacity in South Africa.”

 In addition to the failure to build more power stations across the country, Eskom, like other big corporations, implemented the ANC’s racist “affirmative action” policies, removing the skilled whites who had competently built and then maintained the giant electricity supplier for decades, and replacing them with far less skilled blacks who were appointed simply because of the colour of their skin, to meet racial quotas in the workplace and to satisfy the ANC’s anti-white hatred. And now the country is reaping the results of this insane policy. The lights are being switched off countrywide. South Africa is grinding to a halt and returning to the dark ages. And public outrage is growing.                                                                                                                                               

 To prevent a complete nationwide blackout, Eskom has introduced “load shedding”: every day, supposedly on a rotation basis, vast areas of the country are literally switched off in an attempt to save electricity. Entire cities and towns suddenly lose all power, usually without warning. People are told to go to Eskom’s website to see when there will be load shedding power cuts in their areas; but many times Eskom does not follow its own schedule, with power cuts lasting much longer than the two hours at a time they are supposed to last. Eskom has admitted this, saying that the level and depth of load shedding means that it cannot always stick to its commitment to keep power cuts to two hours at a time.

 In addition, in a country with millions of rural people without any access to computers, looking it up on a website is an impossibility anyway.

 This load shedding nightmare is having a devastating effect on the country’s economy. Businesses are losing multiplied millions of Rand every single day. It is also very dangerous, even life-threatening, for example when power goes out during a surgical operation at a hospital. And it is life-threatening in another way: in a country with one of the highest crime rates in the world, criminals are taking advantage of the power outages to attack people in their darkened homes.

 The power cuts have led to despondency and pessimism across the country, eroding “local and international confidence in the reliability of South Africa’s electricity supply,” said Business Unity South Africa (Busa). There have also been reports that Eskom wants to shelve business projects until 2013. If so, this could seriously deter economic growth in the country, Busa said.

 The situation is now so bad that several giant mining companies suspended operations in late January after being told by Eskom to reduce electricity consumption to “minimum levels.” Eskom told mining companies that they might have to shut down for two to six weeks, only keeping essential water pumps and lighting on.

 Gold mining is the backbone of SA’s economy. This country is the second largest gold producer on earth, having lost first position to China only recently.

 Coal mines, too, have begun to close down. These mines produce the fuel that fires most of Eskom’s power stations. Anglo Coal South Africa evacuated miners at all of its opencast and underground coal mines. And other coal mining companies were also going to halt operations. In the words of a chief economist, “Tens of millions of Rands a day are being lost. It’s a nightmare.”

 For a long time the government denied that there was any emergency at all. But finally the situation became so bad that it could deny it no longer, and amidst rising public anger President Thabo Mbeki did something he has never done before: he actually apologised for the crisis and admitted that it was the government’s fault, as Eskom had recommended greatly increasing the capacity a decade ago, and the government had refused to do anything. “This goes to the heart of the arrogance and incompetence that characterises the Mbeki government. It refused to take the advice of Eskom because the Mbeki inner circle always, always knows better.” [i]

 After Mbeki’s admission of guilt, the government then admitted in late January that the country was facing a “national electricity emergency.” But it has no real plan of action. Asked what to tell South Africans about the crisis, the best that Public Enterprises Minister Alec Erwin could come up with was, “Switch off your lights if you are not using them.” That invaluable piece of energy-saving advice was trumped by this gem from Minerals and Energy Minister Buyelwa Sonjica, delivered at a special sitting of parliament: “Go to sleep earlier so that you can grow and be cleverer. Boil less water, use the microwave rather than the stove, take a shower and not a shallow bath.” Grow and be cleverer? Was she speaking to children? This really encapsulates the ANC’s attitude to South Africa’s citizens – it treats them as if they are children with no intelligence whatsoever. It is that old Marxist arrogance of “we know best, we are the intelligent ones, you are all idiots who must bow to our superior wisdom in all matters.” And, pray tell, how do millions of rural, poverty-stricken black people stop boiling their water and use microwaves? They don’t own microwaves! Millions also don’t have either showers or baths in their homes, so using one instead of the other is really a moot point. But this seems to have escaped the notice of the minister.

 Erwin, like Mbeki, admitted that the government had to share the blame for this national disaster. “The decision to charge Eskom with the responsibility to embark on a large and urgent build programme in 2004 was in hindsight, late. The president has accepted that this government got its timing wrong,” he said. But even at a time like this, being the faithful ANC man that he is, Erwin had to praise the ANC government even while admitting its failure: he said the country is becoming the victim of its own success, with electricity demand growing faster than expected! In other words, the ANC has been so successful at supplying power to people who never had it before, that they did not expect demand to exceed supply. How utterly pathetic. If the ANC was really successfully running the country, it would not have added millions of people to the power grid before it had built sufficient power stations to cope with the increased demand! It is not a success if as a result of failing to have any proper plan, the entire country will now be without power because the ANC gave power to millions without planning for the consequences. That is not the mark of success, but of stupidity.

 Erwin’s praise for the ANC was echoed by Sonjica. She said in parliament, while giving her explanation for the crisis: “When we took over the country in 1994, growth had stagnated with over 3000 megawatts excess capacity of plants in mothballed state after they had been decommissioned. Our emphasis as the ANC… was to use the excess supply for growth, but also to turn excess into access for those who needed this basic service. A legitimate question that always arises is, ‘Why did we not foresee this problem?’ The major task of the ANC when it took power in 1994 was to revitalise the economy and extend services to the majority of our people. As the Department of Minerals and Energy … we anticipated this problem.”

 So: extend electricity services to millions who didn’t have it, even though the electricity supplier couldn’t meet the demand. And we are all meant to clap and say, “Well done”? If they had truly anticipated the problem, we wouldn’t be in this mess.

 And ironically, the ANC’s utter failure to plan ahead for the country’s electricity needs will severely retard delivery of the very projects which the ANC has planned to improve the lot of the poor – a key aspect of its own political policy, and one of the things which keeps it in power. The masses of black poor people are clamouring for the ANC to meet their demands, and the ANC, in true Marxist fashion, has promised them the earth. But the earth needs electricity to run in this day and age, and turning those crazy Utopian promises into reality is becoming a rapidly fading dream. Not only will the infrastructure necessary to implement those promises not be able to function without power, but much-needed foreign investment just will not happen – not without power. Who in his right mind would want to invest in SA now? Without power, the ANC can kiss its hopes of fulfilling its wild promises to the masses goodbye. And that means disillusionment for the masses with the organisation they pinned all their hopes on.

 In any other country, those responsible for this national crisis that is crippling the country would have resigned or been fired. But not here. Oh no. Here, Mbeki only fires those who disagree with him. All others he retains in their posts, regardless of how incompetent or corrupt they are. The repeated call from opposition parties has been for Erwin, the directors of Eskom, and even SA’s deputy president, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, to do the honourable thing and resign with immediate effect. The deputy president had insisted, when she was Minerals and Energy minister, that SA would never run out of power. When the present Minerals and Energy minister, Buyelwa Sonjica, stood up in parliament and apologised to all South Africans for the hardships caused by the power shortages, she was met with jeers of “too late”, “fire the ANC”, “get rid of this government”, and “you knew [about the crisis]”, as well as many jeers about the huge bonuses paid to Eskom bosses.

 But the likelihood of anyone resigning (they are too arrogant for that) or being fired (Mbeki never does that) is remote, to say the least. These men and women in power treat SA as their personal playground. This is black Africa’s way.

 And how long is this national emergency expected to last? At least five years, according to Eskom – until more power stations can be built! It has admitted that it will not be able to meet projected demand for at least five years. Probably longer, if truth be told.

 So what can be done in the short term? And what is going to be done?

 Eskom said that the idea of introducing a quota system to ration the amount of electricity supplied to customers is “gaining acceptance.” If this is implemented, each customer would have a consumption quota and there would be “serious financial implications or incentives” for going over this or maintaining usage below it. This, according to Eskom, would give relief in the short term. Other plans include replacing incandescent light bulbs with compact fluorescent lights, which government hopes will save 750 MW by 2010. Included in this plan are restrictions on the manufacturing of incandescent light bulbs.

 SA, being the economic powerhouse of all of southern Africa, where most of its neighbouring states are barely functioning anyway, has also been supplying power to these neighbours for years. Eskom has assured South Africans that in the present crisis at home, it will not supply electricity to neighbouring states at SA’s expense. But questions remain, with contradictory answers emanating from those who should know.

 Those who can afford it are buying generators, but they are extremely expensive to buy and expensive to run as well. And suppliers are running out of generators and even the parts to build them, as demand has rocketed countrywide. For most, the only solution lies in stocking up on candles, gas cylinders, and torches. South Africans, rich and poor, are now getting used to huddling around candles in their homes at night. This was of course how our ancestors used to live, but a modern state cannot function in this way as in times gone by.

 Perhaps the only good news from all this is that South Africa may now simply be unable to host the 2010 Soccer World Cup. It is high time this crime-ridden country, controlled by corrupt and wicked politicians, ceased to be rewarded for the fraudulent election that brought the Communists to power in 1994. The world is being lied to, it is being told at every opportunity that SA is a “miracle nation”, a paradise on earth, and it keeps getting “rewarded” by being given various sporting and other events. People were ecstatic that SA was chosen to host the World Cup, the greatest sporting event in the world. But what they fail to realise is that after 2010, SA will begin to fall off the world map. The World Cup is the last major event that SA can host for a long time. The honeymoon is almost over. SA is no longer flavour of the decade. After 2010, it will rapidly begin to fade out of the limelight, becoming just another Third World African basket case. The world will cease caring, just as it couldn’t care less about all the other corrupt, war-ravaged African nations to our north. Seen in this light, the World Cup may prove to be one of the greatest disasters for the country, not its greatest shot in the arm.

 The SA Tourism Services Association (Satsa) has now come out and said what many in this sport-mad country consider to be almost blasphemous: that SA might not be able to host the World Cup at all, because of its power crisis! Satsa’s CEO, Michael Tatalias, said: “We are hoping to have more than 300 000 visitors, all using electricity. The stadiums may have all the most wonderful generators in the world to broadcast the games, but will people come to SA to see them if they know they will be going back to hotels and guest houses with no power?” And this is just one more problem, added to the fact that SA is being increasingly viewed around the world as a criminal haven, where tourists are regularly murdered, raped, and assaulted. The police force can’t cope with the crime wave now; how will it hope to cope when we have 300 000 extra people in the country, all needing protection?

 Tatalias added: “The building work on the stadiums is going to be widely disrupted. We have to ask ourselves honestly if we can still do this.” He said that the power cuts could destroy SA’s tourism industry. “The industry will take a huge financial knock this year. So far little attention has been paid to the effects of continuing power outages on the tourism industry.”

 Not unexpectedly, the government has declared that the World Cup will go ahead anyway, and that SA will be able to meet the power demands at the time. “We reassure the South African community and the world at large that all our projects will be on course and that the 2010 Fifa World Cup is not under threat,” said Sonjica. This is all they are really concerned about – the World Cup. The lives of millions of ordinary South Africans will be extremely difficult for years to come because of this government’s incompetence, but that doesn’t matter as much as ensuring that a sporting event will take place, come what may.

 An editorial in a South African daily newspaper said: “South Africa was hailed as the country which was going to be the exception to the decay and disorganisation which are characteristic of much of Africa. Are the Afro-pessimists going to be proved right after all about this country?”[ii] Of course they are. They already have been, over and over again, for they are not “Afro-pessimists”, but Afro-realists. Only blinkered liberals ever hailed SA as the exception to the rule in Africa. Everyone else, living in the real world, knew what was coming. And sure enough – it did.

 People in South Africa used to jokingly say, “Would the last one to leave the country please turn off the lights?” Well, the lights have already been turned off now. But the reality is that millions of South Africans, the vast majority in fact, cannot leave. They are here to stay, they have no choice but to live in this country and make the most of it. Perhaps, just perhaps, this crisis will prove to be a nail in the ANC’s coffin. It won’t happen this year, or next year, of for many years to come – but one day South Africans will be rid of this terrorist organisation doing such a monumental job of mismanaging this beautiful country into the ground, all the while its members are face down in the trough they think is endless, greedily sucking up all they can and enriching themselves at the country’s expense. As I wrote in an article[iii] over three years ago: “Millions and millions of black people in this country have to first become thoroughly disillusioned with the ANC, before they turn against it and vote intellectually, and not emotionally. But this will take years; probably decades. The history of post-colonial Africa shows this well … The African National Congress is still viewed, by multiplied millions in this country, as the ‘liberation party’, that ‘freed’ the ‘oppressed blacks’ from the white man. Only when those millions realize that their real oppression only began when a Marxist government came to power, will they finally begin to turn against this monstrous organisation. Until then, despite the fact that South Africa has descended into Socialist chaos and corruption already, the ANC will continue to enjoy huge popular support. Already, millions are suffering as a result of the poverty, the crime, and the general collapse of all sectors of society; but it is still too early. Their suffering will have to increase even more, before the scales finally fall from their eyes. It will happen. Of that we can be certain. But not now. Not tomorrow. Not by the time of the next election. Nor the one after that. But one day.”

 But when that still far-off day comes, as come it eventually must as surely as day follows night, who will be able to repair and rebuild what they have destroyed?

Shaun Willcock is a minister of the Gospel and lives in South Africa. He runs Bible Based Ministries. For other articles (which may be downloaded and printed), as well as details about his books, audio messages, pamphlets, etc., please visit the Bible Based Ministries website.

[i].The Spark Goes Out of the Pipe Dream, by William Saunderson-Meyer, Weekend Witness, January 26, 2008.

[ii]. How Accountable? editorial in The Witness, January 29, 2008.

[iii]. “The ANC Will Rule South Africa Until Jesus Comes Back”: the Landslide ANC Victory in 2004, by Shaun Willcock. Bible Based Ministries.

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Fourth cable break

Internet services in Qatar have been seriously disrupted because of damage to an undersea telecoms cable linking the Gulf state to the UAE, the fourth such incident in less than a week.

Qatar Telecom (Qtel) said on Sunday the cable was damaged between the Qatari island of Haloul and the UAE island of Das on Friday.

The cause of damage is not yet known, but ArabianBusiness.com has been told unofficially the problem is related to the power system and not the result of a ship’s anchor cutting the cable, as is thought to be the case in the other three incidents.

It is expected to take at least "a few days" to fix, according to one person with knowledge of the situation.

The damage caused major problems for internet users in Qatar over the weekend, but Qtel’s loss of capacity has been kept below 40% thanks to what the telecom said was a large number of alternative routes for transmission.

It is not yet clear how badly telecom and internet services have been affected in the UAE. Etisalat is expected to release a statement on Monday.

Parts of the Gulf Arab region were plunged into a virtual internet blackout on Wednesday when two undersea cables were cut near Alexandria, on Egypt’s north coast.

The initial breaches were in segments of two intercontinental cables known as Sea-ME-We-4 and Flag Europe-Asia.

The situation was made worse on Friday when Flag, part of India’s Reliance Communications, revealed a third cable, Falcon, had also been damaged off the UAE coast.

Etisalat said it does not use the Falcon cable and is therefore unaffected, but the UAE’s second telco, Du, warned the damage could hamper its efforts to restore normal service to customers. Etisalat said it is helping Du minimise disruption.

Flag said a repair ship was expected to arrive at the location of the third damaged cable in the next few days, but bad weather has prevented the vessel from setting off from Abu Dhabi port.

The ship is now expected to depart Monday morning and the repairs should take five days.

The third cable is located 56 kilometres from Dubai on a segment between the UAE and Oman.

Etisalat said it had been informed by Flag Telecom, which operates one of the two damaged cables in the Mediterranean Sea, that the problem should be fixed in two weeks, while the operator of the other cable planned to carry out repairs on February 8.

Flag said on Saturday a ship should reach the cable repair ground by February 5.

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Message from Minister of Darkness

As the minister of Minerals, Energy, Wet Coal, Darkness and General Incompetence, I call on you to celebrate our glorious victory against the powers (and power) of light and progress.

We have successfully transformed our country into an African democracy we can all be proud of. Dependable electric power, lights that shine and working refrigerators are all Eurocentric instruments of the imperial West, intended to oppress Africans. We, the African people, reject the slavery that electricity imposes on us. We express our solidarity with our comrades in Zimbabwe and Nigeria, who use candles and wood in preference to the instruments of oppression.

The lack of dependable electricity is neither a problem nor a crisis, as the enemies of the national democratic revolution would have it. On the contrary, it presents our people with many opportunities for progress towards a true African state. Because of this, we should not

speak of power interruptions or blackouts. The lack of electricity will, in future, officially be known as power opportunities.

Learners and students, for example, will benefit from power opportunities. Because the nights will be dark, and educational institutions will be without power during the day, preventing any real academic progress, we are pleased to announce a new educational policy. Henceforth, all previously disadvantaged students and learners will be automatically given matriculation certificates with as many distinctions as they desire. Students will be given the degrees of

their choice, if they can prove that they had the intention to attend lectures, but were prevented from doing so by power opportunities. Written proof of intention to attend lectures can be emailed to us at: incompetence@darkness.gov.za.

The above does not apply to previously advantaged learners and students, of course, because their parents exploited the indigenous people in the past and can as a result afford generators and backup power supplies. This causes the unacceptable situation whereby untransformed learners are unfairly assisted by racist teachers and do much better academically than indigenous learners. Therefore we have appointed a task team from Harvard University with a view to institute affirmative action handicaps for white learners. The ministry of education intends including postgraduate subjects from the Harvard particle physics curriculum in the Grade 1 syllabus for white learners, so that they too can experience the difficulties black learners face in passing each grade.

Previously disadvantaged workers are another group that will benefit from power opportunities. White capitalists are exploiting the working class by expecting them to make up for lost production time by working additional hours. This practice will cease immediately. New labour laws are being drafted which will force capitalist exploiters to not only pay workers double their normal rate during power opportunities, but also to give them extra leave equivalent to the duration of the power opportunities.

The biggest beneficiaries of power opportunities will however be the forces of liberation of untransformed property, those who roam the countryside and suburbs in the darkness searching for ways to complete our revolution. It is a well-known fact that the availability of electricity hinders the liberation of property. Electric fences, security lights and alarm systems are all obstacles in the way of true liberation. Power opportunities will provide our party’s supporters with ample time to nationalize and transform property that belongs to the white oppressor class.

In view of their immense contribution to our revolution, our comrades the top management of Eskom will receive additional incentives to keep up the good work. We will be approaching the World Bank for a loan in order to pay Eskom’s management and officials in my ministry

productivity bonuses totalling seventeen billion US dollars. Due to my success in Africanizing the provision of electricity, I have thought it fitting and proper to reward myself with a 100-meter ocean-going yacht.

Viva our glorious revolution and progress towards true African darkness!

Signed:

Bulimia Sanscompetencia

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German tourists killed in Kenya

A gang of youths hacked two Germans to death with machetes during an apparent robbery attempt in a private villa in Kenya’s coastal resort of Diani late on Sunday, police said on Monday.

The wife of one of the dead, a German tourist who had arrived in Kenya on holiday a fortnight ago, was also injured in the attack and had been taken to hospital. The second victim was the German owner of the villa.

Police said the killings did not appear to be linked to violence which has rocked large parts of Kenya following the disputed re-election of President Mwai Kibaki a month ago.

"This was organised crime. We are treating it as murder," local police chief Stanley Lamai said.

The gang of around eight youths forced themselves into the villa compound as a watchman opened the gate to allow the Germans in after they returned from dinner, police said. The youths escaped with a stolen camera and some money.

Around 800 people have been killed in ethnic fighting and clashes with the security forces around Kenya since the Dec. 27 polls, violence which has battered the country’s image as an east African tourism and trade hub.

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