China acquires stake in Standard Bank

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is to acquire a 20 per cent stake in Standard Bank, the largest bank in Africa by assets, in a dramatic step-up in China’s investment ambitions on the continent.

Standard Bank said on Thursday it was selling the stake for a total of R36.7bn ($5.56bn), of which R20.7bn would go to shareholders and the remainder to Standard Bank Group.

ICBC, the world’s largest bank by market value, will get two non-executive directors on the South African group’s board, one of whom would be vice-chairman.

The deal requires shareholder and regulatory approval. It is understood the South African Reserve Bank will cap the percentage the ICBC can go to at about 25 per cent.

In a statement to the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the South African group described the deal as “a landmark transaction for Africa, South Africa and Standard Bank Group itself. Standard Bank Group’s proposed partnership with ICBC will place it at the cross-roads of economic interaction between China and the African continent and will represent a strong vote of confidence in the future relationship between the two regions.”

The announcement followed a cautionary statement from Standard Bank on Tuesday, which said it was in talks that could affect its share price.

The deal is a clear sign of a maturing of China’s presence in Africa as Standard Bank is widely considered the most blue chip and stable financial group in South Africa.

It cements the impression that China is seeking to move beyond its standard strategy of the past few years of offering cheap loans in return for access for the continent’s mineral wealth.

It will also be the largest banking deal in South Africa since Barclays of the UK bought Absa Group, the country’s largest retail bank in 2005. Goldman Sachs is advising ICBC, in which it has a small shareholding.

Jiang Jianqing, ICBC chairman, last week said the bank planned to open a branch next month in Russia, take over a bank in Sydney, and open branches in Dubai and Qatar. Media reports had indicated that it is looking for acquisitions in South Africa.

Standard Bank, whose assets totalled R1,100bn ($165bn) on June 30, operates in 18 African countries.

Separately, ICBC said on Thursday that its third-quarter earnings jumped 76 per cent to Rmb22.46bn ($3bn), on the back of a widening interest margin and fee income growth.

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Police scrap hunt because it’s racist

A police crackdown on cannabis factories run by Vietnamese drug barons has been scrapped after officers were warned their actions might be racist.
[…]
They had planned to write to property landlords warning them to look out for suspicious tenancy applications.

But it is understood at least one force has been found to be in breach of the Race Relations Act after specifically referring to Vietnamese nationals in its letters.

The development has infuriated detectives seeking to break the stranglehold of Vietnamese barons, who control 75 per cent of UK production of cannabis.

Senior police sources confirmed there has been an "explosion" in Vietnamese-run cannabis factories over the past year.

Often the whole house will be given over to cultivation of the drug with a small living area reserved for the "gardener", often an illegal immigrant, who tends the plants.

Sometimes the gangs rent up to four properties in a row from the same landlord.

Each house can produce up to four harvests a year, worth up to £600,000.

Electricity connections are often tampered with to offer a free supply to power the lighting around the plants.

Following a recent crackdown by Scotland Yard, many of the crime syndicates have relocated out of the capital to rented properties in places such as Birmingham, Sheffield, Manchester, Nottingham, Leicester and Derby.

There are now three million cannabis users in the UK and more than 60 per cent of what they use is produced here, compared to just 11 per cent ten years ago.

According to investigators, the Vietnamese gangs have a distinct four-tier structure.

There is usually a financial backer, who owns a UK business such as a nail bar or restaurant.

There is a "consultant" who travels around the country advising people how to set up a cannabis farm.

Then there is the "gardener", and finally a seller, responsible for distribution of the drug.

The groups typically launder their vast profits in businesses, vehicles and property. Links to casinos have been uncovered in the Midlands.

Senior officers believe privately that the Government’s decision to relax the laws on cannabis is the cause of the surge in home-grown production.

Chief Superintendent Jon House, of South Yorkshire Police, said the downgrading of the drug from Class B to Class C should be reversed.

He told Police Review magazine that the factories were setting up at an "alarming" rate.

"My recommendation would be that legislation should be introduced that would hold landlords accountable," he said.

Home-grown "skunk", the most powerful and harmful type of cannabis, is flooding our streets, Government scientists have warned.

It accounts for three quarters of the cannabis seized, with 9,460lbs confiscated in the first half of this year.

"There is now an easy way to grow cannabis in this country because of the availability of equipment, specialist lighting and a cheap labour source through foreign nationals," said Dean Ames, head of the Forensic Science Service’s drugs unit.

The potency of skunk, said to be two to three times more powerful than other forms of cannabis, was a major factor behind Gordon Brown’s recent decision to review the downgrading of the drug from Class B to Class C in 2004.

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US to set up permanent base in Botswana

More than 1 500 American soldiers may be permanently based in Botswana from next year, should government go ahead with alleged plans to host America’s recently created Africa Command (Africom).
The Office of the President and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs this week could not confirm reports by Democracy and Governance that Botswana is alleged to have indicated interest to host Africom.

Africom is aimed at stemming the assumed threat posed by swathes of Africa’s “ungoverned” spaces, feared to be potential hide-outs and training fields for terrorists. According to the controversial 2007 “Failed States Index” recently released by the US-based Foreign Policy, Africa tops the list of failed states.

The US budget for the Trans-Saharan Counter-terrorism partnership for 2007 is some $115 million (P1, 5 billion), while non military assistance has increased by 60 percent. Admiral Moeller, head of the Africom planning team hinted that the command will cost in the region of $50 million in the 2007 financial year. The super power’s military investment is also expected to create a lot of jobs for locals.

Despite the economic lures of Africom, a number of African countries, even America’s strategic partners like South Africa, have indicated that they are not willing to host the command, citing concerns with the long term impact it would have on their sovereignty.

According to the report by Democracy and Governance, “it is Washington’s unilateral invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Bush administration’s strategy of pre-emptive strikes against its perceived threats which present liabilities which some African states are shy to bear. Countries considered by the US and its allies as pariahs such as Sudan and Zimbabwe shudder at the possibility of Africom being used to coordinate strikes against them ala Iraq.”

Since Al Qaeda blew up American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, killing 225 people, America has trained its heavy guns on the organization and its suspected local allies in the region. Some 1,5 00 US military and civilian personnel attached to the combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) have maintained a presence at Camp Lemonier, Djibouti. The command of the CJTF-HOA, currently under CENTCOM, will be transferred to Africom in Botswana in 2008, should Botswana agree to host the command.

Deputy Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Moostaq Moorad, would not confirm reports that Botswana has indicated that they are willing to host Africom, saying “This is more of a military cooperation issue than an international cooperation issue.” He referred all enquiries to the Office of the President.

Presidential Affairs spokesperson, Dr Jeff Ramsay, also said he could not confirm the reports. He promised to come back to us next week.

The Sunday Standard can, however, reveal that logistical difficulties that would come with Botswana hosting Africom were cleared in 2003 when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation agreed to sign a non surrender pact with America under controversial circumstances.

According to the write up by the Director of Democracy and Governance, Dr Peter Kagwanja, “ locating American soldiers permanently on foreign soil will depend on the host country’s approval of a Status-of-Force Agreement (SOFA) – a legal document that the State Department negotiated to define the legal standing of American soldiers abroad.”

Botswana has already signed this bilateral pact binding them not to surrender American military personnel to international tribunals, commonly known as Article 98. The agreement was signed on June 30, 2003 in Gaborone and entered into force on 28th September 2003.

In its carrot and stick campaign, Washington withdrew military aid to all American allies that refused to sign the agreement, among them SADC countries like South Africa, Lesotho, Zambia , Malawi, Tanzania and Namibia.
The Bush administration also issued a waiver, exempting Botswana from the military sanctions.

The Botswana government was, however, under pressure from the local media and opposition political parties which felt that the country had sold out to America. In an attempt to stem the groundswell of hostile public opinion, Foreign Affairs Minister, Lt Gen Mompati Merafhe, issued a statement in July 2003 trying to justify Botswana’s position.

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Riots in Amsterdam and Brussels

Europe’s no-go zones or SUAs (“sensitive urban areas”) are multiplying. These are areas where the police no longer dares to venture and where Islamists hold sway. Every night since the beginning of last week, immigrant youths have been torching cars and clashing with police in Amsterdam’s Slotervaart district. The incidents started on Oct. 14 when a policewoman shot dead Bilal Bajaka, a 22-year old ethnic Moroccan, whilst he was stabbing her and a colleague with a knife. The officers were stabbed in the breast, face, neck and back. Surgeons could only narrowly save their lives.

Since the incident, Slotervaart has seen rioting almost every night. The Amsterdam Moroccans are  “shocked” because one of them has been killed by an infidel woman. According to his family, Bilal Bajaka was mentally deranged and had a suicide obsession. Ahmed Marcouch, the Moroccan-born Socialist mayor of Slotervaart, criticized the Dutch authorities for failing to provide adequate health care for Bajaka’s mental problems.

Bilal Bajaka was, however, a personal friend of Mohammed Bouyeri, the Jihadist who ritually slaughtered the Dutch film maker Theo van Gogh in 2004. Bilal’s attack on the two police officers came exactly two years after the arrest of his brother, Abdullah Bajaka, the leader of an alleged plot to blow up an El-Al Boeing at Amsterdam airport. Bilal’s family background is not at all deprived. One of his sisters is a medical doctor, another sister is a Dutch judge.

For ten days now, the situation in Amsterdam’s immigrant neighbourhoods has been tense. Senior police officers compare the current situation in Amsterdam to the 2005 Ramadan riots in Paris. Media outside the Netherlands, however, hardly mention the riots, which aim to drive the police from Slotervaart and turn the neighborhood into a new no-go area – yet another pocket of Eurabia on Europe’s soil.

Similar events are currently taking place in Brussels, the capital of neighbouring Belgium and of the EU. Last Sunday, demonstrating Turkish youths ransacked an Armenian restaurant in the Sint-Joost-ten-Node borough. According to the owner the police was present at the scene but did not interfere while his establishment was being demolished. The Armenian had to flee for his life.

Another man who had to run for his life was the Belgian journalist Mehmet Koksal, an ethnic Turk. He was attacked around 11 pm on Sunday evening by a group of some twenty Turkish youths in front of the American embassy in Brussels, a few yards from the Belgian parliament building. The Parliament and the US Embassy are less than one kilometer from Sint-Joost-ten-Node. Koksal fled to a nearby police car, but a female police officer refused to let him into the car, whereupon the youths savagely beat him up. Fearing that they were about to lynch him, the police officers changed their attitude and allowed the journalist to seek refuge in their car.

Koksal told the press today that he is not going to press charges against the police for failing to help him. “The police woman was more afraid than I was and ultimately the police came to my rescue,” he said.

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Police: stop more black suspects

One of Britain’s leading black police officers is to demand that more people from ethnic minorities must be stopped and searched if the fight against inner-city gun and knife crime is to succeed.

In a speech that will reignite one of the most contentious issues in British po licing, the president of the National Black Police Association will dramatically call for an increase in the policing strategy in black communities. It marks a U-turn by the association, which has previously questioned the high proportion of black people stopped and searched by police.
 
Speaking at the group’s annual conference, Keith Jarrett will ask Police Minister Tony McNulty and Sir Ian Blair, Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, to consider escalating stop-and-searches among black people to reduce the number of shootings that have claimed the lives of another two teenagers in the past week.
 
The disputed use of stop-and-search has arguably caused more conflict than any other modern policing tactic and first achieved national notoriety during the Eighties, when it was blamed for precipitating inner-city race riots. Black people are four times more likely to be stopped than white people, according to Scotland Yard’s figures, which continues to give rise to charges of police racism.
 
Jarrett admitted he was braced for a negative backlash during his headline speech in Bristol last Wednesday. It is the first time that a senior black officer has called for an increase in stop-and-search among the black community.
 
Traditionally the association, which has 8,000 members ranging from senior figures such as Tarique Ghaffur, assistant commissioner in the Metropolitan police, to backroom staff, has pointed to the ‘alarming’ and disproportionate numbers of black people who are stopped and searched.
Jarrett told The Observer: ‘From the return that I am getting from a lot of black people, they want to stop these killings, these knife crimes, and if it means their sons and daughters are going to be inconvenienced by being stopped by the police, so be it. I’m hoping we go down that road. I am going to be pressing him [Blair] to increase stop-and-search. It’s not going to go down very well with my audience, many of whom are going to be black. We have talked about disproportionate use of stop-and-search in the past, but what I am proposing is quite the reverse. The black community is telling me that we have to have a look at this.’ Controversially, Jarrett said he would not oppose a random use of stop-and-search when officers had ‘reasonable suspicion’ an offence had been committed. He argued that, as long as officers used the powers courteously and responsibly, many within the black community would accept it as a necessary evil. He added that the toll of shootings and knife crime meant that deep-seated misgivings over the policing strategy were being increasingly outweighed by fears over mounting violence.
 
The backlash was led last night by Liberal Democrats’ home affairs spokesman Nick Clegg, who said stop-and-search only ‘increased community tensions and distrust in the police’. He added: ‘Effective policing depends on good intelligence and smart ways of fostering community co-operation. This suggestion points us in exactly the opposite direction and risks repeating all the worst mistakes of the past’.
 
Although widely viewed by senior officers as an effective policing tool, stop-and-search use was blamed for the 1985 Handsworth riots in Birmingham which erupted after the arrest of a black man. Its predecessor, the discredited ‘sus law’ which empowered the police to arrest any person they suspected of loitering with intent to commit an arrestable offence, was abolished after its widespread use against young black men sparked the 1981 Brixton riots.
 
In the wake of the south London uprising, new rules for stop-and-search determined that officers required ‘reasonable suspicion’ that an offence had been committed. Yet its use against the black community has continued to attract claims of racism.
 
Publication of the Macpherson Report in February 1999 into the murder of the teenager Stephen Lawrence, which found that police were institutionally racist, condemned the use of stop-and-search. Racial equality watchdogs have also threatened the police with legal action over stop-and-search, claiming its use has single-handedly poisoned relations with ethnic minorities.

Until Jarrett’s speech this week, senior black and Asian officers publicly agreed that stop-and-search risked criminalising and alienating ethnic minorities. Last year Ghaffur warned that counter-terrorism laws, including an increased incidence of stop-and-search, had indirectly discriminated against Asians.

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Segregation rules

The new building that will soon house the Arab-Jewish bilingual school Hand in Hand sticks out against the rest of the houses in the Pat neighborhood in Jerusalem. The roomy halls and spacious lawns are not very characteristic of the nearby streets. Neither is the multicultural atmosphere which many of the religious Jewish neighbors don’t care for.

The building’s opening ceremony yesterday revealed an impressive structure, with small gardens with olive trees that will accommodate outdoor classes once the building opens its doors to the school’s 400 primary and junior high students. The institution is still waiting for some final permits from the municipality.

The Jerusalem Fund had raised the NIS 40 million needed to fund the new building from German, Austrian, Swiss, British and other European donors.

Many people from Pat are not very happy about the school. Some say their objections have nothing to do with the fact that it’s a Jewish-Arab school. They cite the lengthy construction and the traffic-related problems they will have to contend with every morning. Others object on cultural grounds.

"It’s a mixed school and it doesn’t sit well with a religious neighborhood," one of the residents told Haaretz, requesting anonymity. "If this were a normal school then there’d be no problem. The same goes for a yeshiva, of course. It’s the mixing between Jews and Arabs that’s the problem. The rest pales in comparison."

Another woman echoes this sentiment. "The Arabs have their own villages. That’s where they should go study. Not here in the middle of a Jewish neighborhood," she said. "I’ve got nothing against Arabs, but why do they have to go to school with Jews? It will only lead to assimilation that will begin at an even earlier age because of this school."

A third neighbor, Mariana Kuman, said she didn’t mind the school. "The Arabs from Beit Safafa are here all the time anyway. They come to hang around here on Saturday nights. They also come here on holidays and they don’t bother anyone. It’s not like there aren’t any Jewish troublemakers.

Hand in Hand’s management says there are people from outside the neighborhood who are trying to persuade the residents to oppose the school.

The Hand in Hand organization has two other bilingual schools, one in Gush Misgav and one in Kfar Kara, in addition to the one at Pat, which is co-managed by principals Dalia Peretz and Ala Khatib. The organization also has two kindergartens in Be’er Sheva.

In keeping with the Jerusalem school’s bilingual identity, Arab and Jewish teachers are equally represented. When the Jewish teacher reads a story, her Arab colleague translates into Arabic. The next day, it will be the Arab teacher to tell the story in Arabic, and the Jewish teacher’s turn to translate into Hebrew.

When addressing the teachers and their schoolmates, some students switch effortlessly between Arabic in Hebrew, depending on the person they are addressing.

The next step for the Jerusalem school will be to open a high school division. Currently, however, the school only has 14 students in the 9th grade, all of whom are Arab. Their Jewish counterparts have all left in favor of more traditional institutions.

The elementary school division, by contrast, is much more popular. Each grade has two classes with 30 students. "We try to keep the balance between boys and girls and Jews and Arabs," says Khatib. "It’s harder than populating Noah’s Ark."

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Swiss party gains record high

The nationalist Swiss People’s Party have gained a record high 29 percent of the vote in national parliamentary elections after an agressive campaign that blamed foreigners for much of the crime in Switzerland. The official results released Monday by the Federal Statistics Office showed the SVP edging out the 1919 performance of 28 percent achieved by the pro-business Radical Democrats when Swiss elections were reorganized immediately after World War I. On the left, the Green movement increased to 9.6 percent from 7.9 percent of four years ago. The Socialists suffered a major setback.

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‘Complete meltdown of society’

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.

The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 – much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel.

"The world soon will not be able to produce all the oil it needs as demand is rising while supply is falling. This is a huge problem for the world economy," said Hans-Josef Fell, EWG’s founder and the German MP behind the country’s successful support system for renewable energy.

The report’s author, Joerg Schindler, said its most alarming finding was the steep decline in oil production after its peak, which he says is now behind us.

The results are in contrast to projections from the International Energy Agency, which says there is little reason to worry about oil supplies at the moment.

However, the EWG study relies more on actual oil production data which, it says, are more reliable than estimates of reserves still in the ground. The group says official industry estimates put global reserves at about 1.255 gigabarrels – equivalent to 42 years’ supply at current consumption rates. But it thinks the figure is only about two thirds of that.

Global oil production is currently about 81m barrels a day – EWG expects that to fall to 39m by 2030. It also predicts significant falls in gas, coal and uranium production as those energy sources are used up.

Britain’s oil production peaked in 1999 and has already dropped by half to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

The report presents a bleak view of the future unless a radically different approach is adopted. It quotes the British energy economist David Fleming as saying: "Anticipated supply shortages could lead easily to disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in Burma this month. For government, industry and the wider public, just muddling through is not an option any more as this situation could spin out of control and turn into a complete meltdown of society."

Mr Schindler comes to a similar conclusion. "The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of our daily life."

Jeremy Leggett, one of Britain’s leading environmentalists and the author of Half Gone, a book about "peak oil" – defined as the moment when maximum production is reached, said that both the UK government and the energy industry were in "institutionalised denial" and that action should have been taken sooner.

"When I was an adviser to government, I proposed that we set up a taskforce to look at how fast the UK could mobilise alternative energy technologies in extremis, come the peak," he said. "Other industry advisers supported that. But the government prefers to sleep on without even doing a contingency study. For those of us who know that premature peak oil is a clear and present danger, it is impossible to understand such complacency."

Mr Fell said that the world had to move quickly towards the massive deployment of renewable energy and to a dramatic increase in energy efficiency, both as a way to combat climate change and to ensure that the lights stayed on. "If we did all this we may not have an energy crisis."

He accused the British government of hypocrisy. "Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have talked a lot about climate change but have not brought in proper policies to drive up the use of renewables," he said. "This is why they are left talking about nuclear and carbon capture and storage. "

Yesterday, a spokesman for the Department of Business and Enterprise said: "Over the next few years global oil production and refining capacity is expected to increase faster than demand. The world’s oil resources are sufficient to sustain economic growth for the foreseeable future. The challenge will be to bring these resources to market in a way that ensures sustainable, timely, reliable and affordable supplies of energy."

The German policy, which guarantees above-market payments to producers of renewable power, is being adopted in many countries – but not Britain, where renewables generate about 4% of the country’s electricity and 2% of its overall energy needs.

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China helps Africa where West failed

China is spreading prosperity in Africa where the West failed, a Chinese bank official said on Thursday in a sharp rebuke to critics of his country’s growing role in the world’s poorest continent.

Li Ruogu, president of China’s state-owned Export-Import Bank, key funder of China’s push into Africa, said roads and radios were more urgent needs for Africans than human rights and freedom, and that China was delivering such concrete benefits.

"Western colonialism over 400 years in Africa did not bring any development and wealth," Li said. "But China has brought many benefits to Africa."

 After $50 billion in debt write-offs for impoverished countries mainly in Africa last year, Western donors fear China’s expanding economic links with the continent could lead to a build-up in burdensome debts all over again.

[…]

Lack of transparency from China on details of its investments and aid in Africa has also alarmed Western donors, who have watched China become a major investor in countries such as Angola and Sudan that are accused of violating human rights.

"Western countries talk about human rights and freedom every day, but if the people there can’t even watch television or listen to radio, how can they enjoy human rights and freedom?" Li said.

China has recently claimed credit for persuading Sudan to accept U.N peacekeepers in the troubled Darfur region and it has won praise from the United States for its "constructive role" in dealings with Khartoum.

[…]

China argues its own rapid growth and experience in lifting more than 400 million people out of poverty over past 20 years could provide valuable lessons to Africans.

"I visited Africa 11 times within two years, and I can feel the strong desire of African people and governments to develop the local economy and cooperate with China", he said.

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The last White team

"I’ve believed for a long time now that South Africa are going to win the World Cup," Jake White says with quiet but utter certainty in his hotel room in Paris. Days away from the final, against an England team that White’s Springboks beat 36-0 last month, it might be presumed that arrogance or complacency underpins the South African coach’s unusually bold honesty. But the urgency in White’s voice is more revealing.

"There is a sense of destiny about this team," White insists, "because no other side in world rugby plays with the same pressure. England have been through a tough time but it’s nothing like our situation. I know Schalk Burger [South Africa’s flanker] has talked to you about the fact that, after this tournament, massive political pressure is going to be exerted to pick a Springbok side based more on colour rather than merit. This is a huge unspoken motivation for them – to show that they deserve to keep their team."

White, the 43-year-old former schoolteacher who has done more than any other Springbok coach to develop young black and Coloured (the mixed-race classification still used in South Africa) players, believes the final will almost certainly be his last game in charge. Even victory, he suggests, "will not buy me any more time. But what it will do is buy South African rugby some time to work out if it is smart enough to hang on to this group of players and move on together for the sake of the game in the entire country. This is an immensely bright group of guys and they know the stakes. They’re playing to win the World Cup, but they’re also playing for the future."

The political minefield of South African rugby means the desire to raise the "targets" or "quotas" of black or Coloured players in a Springbok XV will soon become even more ferocious. White, having battled the odds since January 2004, does not envisage staying in his post. "It explains why I’m not nervous. I went through such a low last year that there were times I didn’t think I’d be here. But I’m enjoying it now. I said to you a few weeks ago that my job is to get them to the final. Their job on Saturday will be to win it. And I have complete confidence in a team I’ve always felt is destined for greatness."

Yet, after this astonishing tournament, White acknowledges that England are entitled to believe in destiny themselves. Any side capable of hauling themselves out of the graveyard of that shattering group-game defeat should feel that history is calling. And when that team are the defending world champions, with a defiant pack and the boot of Jonny Wilkinson behind them, White is right to urge caution.

"This is the World Cup final. England also have 10 guys who were part of their 2003 World Cup squad and that’s a massive advantage. When we played them last time England’s confidence was shredded and then, to crown it all, they lost Wilkinson and [Olly] Barkley. Then [Andy] Farrell got injured and they had to put [Mike] Catt in at fly-half. You can’t win with such bad luck.

"But whatever happened that night is irrelevant. It’s all about momentum and England have improved in every game since then and won four on the bounce. Their confidence is rocketing and they are a different proposition with Wilkinson. And everyone is talking up their pack."

White, from a rugby culture where scrummaging is often considered romantic, and props are regarded as heroic, talks up his own forward power. "England are exceptionally strong in the scrum but in the lineout, with [Victor] Matfield and [Bakkies] Botha, and at the breakdown, with Burger, they will feel pressure. But we’re keeping our feet on the ground because there have been so many amazing twists and turns in this World Cup."

In a series of interviews between us over the last four weeks White has often seemed uncannily accurate in his forecasts. He predicted that Argentina would beat France in the opening match and that the hosts would then go on to lose in the semi-finals. Yet even the sage-like White has been nonplussed. "I told you we would play Wales in the quarters and France in the semis before beating the All Blacks in the final. But we haven’t met one of those teams."

White, however, derides any amateur psychologist who claims that the momentum has now swung to England because a bloated South Africa will still be gorging on the memory of their 36-0 win. The Springboks, after all, were "nilled" in similarly embarrassing fashion when losing 49-0 to Australia last year. "We’ve been through our own downward spiral. But just as there were mitigating factors in England losing so badly to us that result in Brisbane came out of left field. The week before, SA Rugby announced that they weren’t going to lengthen my contract and there had also been this hoo-ha about me becoming director of rugby for England. The players were unsettled.

"But we played Australia in Sydney two weeks later – once I’d reassured them that I was staying. We only lost 20-18 after a Wallaby try in the last minute. That shows how things can turn around in two weeks. England have had four weeks since we played each other."

When asked how close he came to moving to Twickenham last year, White admits: "I was in the frame but there was no real prospect then of me leaving South Africa. I was committed to my team." As for the future: "If my contract doesn’t get renewed and England came to me with a proposal to coach them one day I’d be crazy not to accept it. There are a huge amount of similarities between England and South Africa. We have both come through tough times and, apart from these last few weeks, they’ve really not done well since winning the World Cup. But England have got massive potential, some real stars and plenty of exciting young players coming through. And there is so much desire and passion in English rugby that I’d have to be tempted. Who wouldn’t want to be part of that rugby culture?"

Three weeks ago, when Brian Ashton’s grip on the England coaching job was less secure, White told me: "Without committing myself to anyone I definitely want to stay in international rugby. I want to see what it’s like to coach on a relatively even keel, without South Africa’s political interference, and England would be hugely attractive to any coach at this level. I would hate to leave my own country, and I would especially hate to leave this team because I think in four years’ time, if we keep them together, they could take rugby to a new level. But just as a South African lawyer can find himself a great job in London so it’s legitimate as a professional coach that I look at other opportunities."

Yesterday, understandably, he was more focused on the final. "All that we discussed before is still the case. But it’s not just England. I would consider coaching any international team. Once you’ve been at this level it’s in your blood and you want to see how good you really are. On Sunday night, as South Africa and Argentina ran out for the semi-final, with the music blaring and the crowd going beserk, Eddie Jones [the former Australia coach and now White’s assistant] turned to me and said, ‘This is what it’s all about. This is why we coach international rugby.’ I’d like to stay at the top as long as I can. But after Saturday I’ll have time to reflect and make a final decision."

White does not demur when asked if the gist of an earlier conversation between us remains unchanged. "That’s right," he admits. "Speaking to Clive [Woodward] and Eddie it’s obvious. When you win the World Cup you’ve got to go because there’s no more you can achieve. And if you don’t they probably want you to go anyway. Eddie told me that after Australia lost the World Cup with a drop-kick to England he should have gone then."

There is a tangible poignance in White working for probably the last time this week with players he has coached over many years. As assistant coach of the side which won the Under-19 World Cup in 1999 – and as chief coach of the tournament-winning team in the Under-21 equivalent in 2002 – White created a nucleus of players who have enjoyed sustained international success.

"We’ve been together four years as a senior squad but I’ve worked with many of them far longer. I first came across John Smit when he was 15 and I coached Victor Matfield when I was in charge of SA Schools in 1994. In 1999, when we won the Under-19 World Cup, John was the captain and in 2002 we were joined by Schalk Burger, Fourie du Preez, Juan Smith and the rest. I know them inside out and all I have to do these next few days is get the team right in terms of preparation and focus.

"That’s why I feel so fortunate. The critics have been unanimous in their belief that Bryan Habana is the best finisher in world rugby. They all say Fourie du Preez is the world’s best scrum-half. Our two locks, Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha, are as good as anyone. The same goes for our flankers in Burger and Smith."

The list of England players who could claim comparable status is not as long. But White knows that World Cups are won by teams. "England are a proper team now, but so are we. I also feel we’re destined. Before the tournament [South Africa’s president] Thabo Mbeki told us, ‘Forget the politics and win it’ – and that was a big statement. And when we got to France we were in the same hotel as Madiba [Nelson Mandela] and we gave him the captain’s No2 jersey. He said, ‘Win it for the whole country,’ and we remembered how he gave us that massive lift when we won in 1995. That’s why I brought in Morne du Plessis to hand out the team jerseys before the first game of this World Cup.

"Morne had been team manager in 1995 and the message he gave was quite clear. People in South Africa are tired of the old images, of watching the plane fly over Ellis Park after we had beaten the All Blacks to become world champions. They’re tired of the photos of Francois Pienaar holding the World Cup. It’s time for some new stories. It’s time for some new South African rugby heroes."

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Tear gas, barricades, Swiss democracy

The Swiss proudly call their country the world’s most direct democracy.

But a week before a general election, the political battle has become all too direct — complete with tear gas, burning barricades and street battles between police and anti-racism campaigners.

"It was extraordinary," said Dinu Gautier, one of the protesters. "There were thousands of people. Some were putting up barricades in the street and the police were trying to clear the way with tear gas and water cannon."

The descent into violence last week came as Switzerland’s most powerful party, the Right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), marched into the city centre to hold a rally.

The violent showdown has delivered a powerful blow to Switzerland’s reputation for placid, wealthy, Alpine stability. Instead a bitter and divisive debate has erupted. For behind the riots and the rubber bullets lies Switzerland’s most emotive issue: race.

"There are racist sentiments in Switzerland," said Daniele Jenni, a Green party member in Berne’s city parliament. "It is not the absolute majority of people but it is there."

Mr Jenni runs an opposition group to the SVP, which refused to comment for this article due to what a spokesman called "biased reports".

The opposition group is called "The Black Sheep" after a poster that has proved the most controversial element of the SVP’s campaign.

It shows a black sheep being kicked out of a field emblazoned with the Swiss flag by one of three white sheep and has been directly copied by Germany’s Neo-Nazi NPD party.

In Berne it is difficult to find a version of the image that has not been defaced in some way. But there is little doubt that its message is one that resonates deeply with many Swiss people.

The final surveys before the Oct 21 election suggest that the SVP — which won the 2003 vote with 27 per cent — will improve on its position next weekend.

It wants to eject foreign nationals who commit crimes in Switzerland once they have served their prison terms.

In the past it has claimed that the black sheep on its posters is nothing to do with race. However, pointing out that the foreign nationals who make up 20 per cent of Switzerland’s 7.5 million population account for 70 per cent of its prison population is a successful tactic for the SVP and its leader, Christoph Blocher.

"Monsieur Blocher is trying to do something," said Rita Musy, an assistant at a luxury jewellers in Berne. "There are waves of people coming from outside. It’s appalling. No one needs that."

Outside her shop, in front of the glittering displays of Switzerland’s iconic watches, sat a Roma family, a mother and two small children, hands outstretched.

"Of course it’s bad for business," said Ms Musy. "In Switzerland we have many poor people, but you’ll never see Swiss people begging on the street like that. Never."

For Switzerland’s immigrants, however, the ever growing popularity of the SVP is a reflection of rising and dangerously open racism.

Francis Goze, a restaurant worker and theology student, arrived in 2001 as a refugee from Ivory Coast. Since then he has married a Swiss woman, but will still have to wait years to acquire Swiss nationality in one of the world’s toughest naturalisation processes.

He described being refused entry to nightclubs which demand a Swiss identity card, and some cantons as being "off limits" to black people.

"I came to Switzerland because it was a beacon of stability," he said. "Now there are some parts of Switzerland I just don’t go to."

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Dreadlocks approved in Zim schools

Zimbabwe’s supreme court has ordered a government school to re-admit an eight-year-old schoolboy who was expelled for wearing dreadlocks, his lawyer said.

"The supreme court has ordered that the school be barred from refusing the boy entry into class or interfering with his education," lawyer Tafadzwa Mugabe told AFP.

"This means schoolchildren can now wear dreadlocks as long as their parents approve. Others may disapprove and say we are opening floodgates for dreadlocks in schools but this is what the law says."

Authorities at Ruvheneko Primary School in Harare, where Farai Benjamin Dzvova was a grade one pupil, threw the boy out of class in January last year, saying his hairstyle went against school rules.

He had been readmitted on a temporary basis after the high court issued a provisional order stopping the authorities from expelling him until the supreme court judgement.

The boy’s family practices Rastafarianism whose adherents are known for keeping long flowing dreadlocks.

"The school head would lock him up in solitary confinement or order him to sit on the floor as punishment saying he was defying school rules which say pupils should be keep their hair well-kept at all times," the lawyer said.

The boy won a reprieve in the high court pending the outcome on the supreme court appeal in which his lawyers charged that his constitutional rights to freedom of religion and protection from discrimination had been infringed.

The boy is the third Zimbabwean to win the right to keep their Rastafarian hairstyle after lawyer Munyaradzi Gwisai was allowed to practice with his dreadlocks and while a journalist won the right to have a passport photograph while wearing his dreadlocks.

Others however have not been so lucky. Three members of the Zimbabwean cricket team were ordered to cut off their dreadlocks during the cricket World Cup earlier this year.

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The ?Good Germans? Among Us

Ten days ago The Times unearthed yet another round of secret Department of Justice memos countenancing torture. President Bush gave his standard response: “This government does not torture people.” Of course, it all depends on what the meaning of “torture” is. The whole point of these memos is to repeatedly recalibrate the definition so Mr. Bush can keep pleading innocent.

By any legal standards except those rubber-stamped by Alberto Gonzales, we are practicing torture, and we have known we are doing so ever since photographic proof emerged from Abu Ghraib more than three years ago. As Andrew Sullivan, once a Bush cheerleader, observed last weekend in The Sunday Times of London, America’s “enhanced interrogation” techniques have a grotesque provenance: “Verschärfte Vernehmung, enhanced or intensified interrogation, was the exact term innovated by the Gestapo to describe what became known as the ‘third degree.’ It left no marks. It included hypothermia, stress positions and long-time sleep deprivation.”

Still, the drill remains the same. The administration gives its alibi (Abu Ghraib was just a few bad apples). A few members of Congress squawk. The debate is labeled “politics.” We turn the page.

There has been scarcely more response to the similarly recurrent story of apparent war crimes committed by our contractors in Iraq. Call me cynical, but when Laura Bush spoke up last week about the human rights atrocities in Burma, it seemed less an act of selfless humanitarianism than another administration maneuver to change the subject from its own abuses.

As Mrs. Bush spoke, two women, both Armenian Christians, were gunned down in Baghdad by contractors underwritten by American taxpayers. On this matter, the White House has been silent. That incident followed the Sept. 16 massacre in Baghdad’s Nisour Square, where 17 Iraqis were killed by security forces from Blackwater USA, which had already been implicated in nearly 200 other shooting incidents since 2005. There has been no accountability. The State Department, Blackwater’s sugar daddy for most of its billion dollars in contracts, won’t even share its investigative findings with the United States military and the Iraqi government, both of which have deemed the killings criminal.

The gunmen who mowed down the two Christian women worked for a Dubai-based company managed by Australians, registered in Singapore and enlisted as a subcontractor by an American contractor headquartered in North Carolina. This is a plot out of “Syriana” by way of “Chinatown.” There will be no trial. We will never find out what happened. A new bill passed by the House to regulate contractor behavior will have little effect, even if it becomes law in its current form.

We can continue to blame the Bush administration for the horrors of Iraq — and should. Paul Bremer, our post-invasion viceroy and the recipient of a Presidential Medal of Freedom for his efforts, issued the order that allows contractors to elude Iraqi law, a folly second only to his disbanding of the Iraqi Army. But we must also examine our own responsibility for the hideous acts committed in our name in a war where we have now fought longer than we did in the one that put Verschärfte Vernehmung on the map.

I have always maintained that the American public was the least culpable of the players during the run-up to Iraq. The war was sold by a brilliant and fear-fueled White House propaganda campaign designed to stampede a nation still shellshocked by 9/11. Both Congress and the press — the powerful institutions that should have provided the checks, balances and due diligence of the administration’s case — failed to do their job. Had they done so, more Americans might have raised more objections. This perfect storm of democratic failure began at the top.

As the war has dragged on, it is hard to give Americans en masse a pass. We are too slow to notice, let alone protest, the calamities that have followed the original sin.

In April 2004, Stars and Stripes first reported that our troops were using makeshift vehicle armor fashioned out of sandbags, yet when a soldier complained to Donald Rumsfeld at a town meeting in Kuwait eight months later, he was successfully pilloried by the right. Proper armor procurement lagged for months more to come. Not until early this year, four years after the war’s first casualties, did a Washington Post investigation finally focus the country’s attention on the shoddy treatment of veterans, many of them victims of inadequate armor, at Walter Reed Army Medical Center and other military hospitals.

We first learned of the use of contractors as mercenaries when four Blackwater employees were strung up in Falluja in March 2004, just weeks before the first torture photos emerged from Abu Ghraib. We asked few questions. When reports surfaced early this summer that our contractors in Iraq (180,000, of whom some 48,000 are believed to be security personnel) now outnumber our postsurge troop strength, we yawned. Contractor casualties and contractor-inflicted casualties are kept off the books.

It was always the White House’s plan to coax us into a blissful ignorance about the war. Part of this was achieved with the usual Bush-Cheney secretiveness, from the torture memos to the prohibition of photos of military coffins. But the administration also invited our passive complicity by requiring no shared sacrifice. A country that knows there’s no such thing as a free lunch was all too easily persuaded there could be a free war.

Instead of taxing us for Iraq, the White House bought us off with tax cuts. Instead of mobilizing the needed troops, it kept a draft off the table by quietly purchasing its auxiliary army of contractors to finesse the overstretched military’s holes. With the war’s entire weight falling on a small voluntary force, amounting to less than 1 percent of the population, the rest of us were free to look the other way at whatever went down in Iraq.

We ignored the contractor scandal to our own peril. Ever since Falluja this auxiliary army has been a leading indicator of every element of the war’s failure: not only our inadequate troop strength but also our alienation of Iraqi hearts and minds and our rampant outsourcing to contractors rife with Bush-Cheney cronies and campaign contributors. Contractors remain a bellwether of the war’s progress today. When Blackwater was briefly suspended after the Nisour Square catastrophe, American diplomats were flatly forbidden from leaving the fortified Green Zone. So much for the surge’s great “success” in bringing security to Baghdad.

Last week Paul Rieckhoff, an Iraq war combat veteran who directs Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, sketched for me the apocalypse to come. Should Baghdad implode, our contractors, not having to answer to the military chain of command, can simply “drop their guns and go home.” Vulnerable American troops could be deserted by those “who deliver their bullets and beans.”

This potential scenario is just one example of why it’s in our national self-interest to attend to Iraq policy the White House counts on us to ignore. Our national character is on the line too. The extralegal contractors are both a slap at the sovereignty of the self-governing Iraq we supposedly support and an insult to those in uniform receiving as little as one-sixth the pay. Yet it took mass death in Nisour Square to fix even our fleeting attention on this long-metastasizing cancer in our battle plan.

Similarly, it took until December 2005, two and a half years after “Mission Accomplished,” for Mr. Bush to feel sufficient public pressure to acknowledge the large number of Iraqi casualties in the war. Even now, despite his repeated declaration that “America will not abandon the Iraqi people,” he has yet to address or intervene decisively in the tragedy of four million-plus Iraqi refugees, a disproportionate number of them children. He feels no pressure from the American public to do so, but hey, he pays lip service to Darfur.

Our moral trajectory over the Bush years could not be better dramatized than it was by a reunion of an elite group of two dozen World War II veterans in Washington this month. They were participants in a top-secret operation to interrogate some 4,000 Nazi prisoners of war. Until now, they have kept silent, but America’s recent record prompted them to talk to The Washington Post.

“We got more information out of a German general with a game of chess or Ping-Pong than they do today, with their torture,” said Henry Kolm, 90, an M.I.T. physicist whose interrogation of Rudolf Hess, Hitler’s deputy, took place over a chessboard. George Frenkel, 87, recalled that he “never laid hands on anyone” in his many interrogations, adding, “I’m proud to say I never compromised my humanity.”

Our humanity has been compromised by those who use Gestapo tactics in our war. The longer we stand idly by while they do so, the more we resemble those “good Germans” who professed ignorance of their own Gestapo. It’s up to us to wake up our somnambulant Congress to challenge administration policy every day. Let the war’s last supporters filibuster all night if they want to. There is nothing left to lose except whatever remains of our country’s good name.

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Sarkozy divorce ‘imminent’

France was treated to an unprecedented spectacle yesterday as newspapers and radio shows aired the rumour that President Sarkozy was on the point of divorce from his wife, Cécilia.

Commentators, running roughshod over the long-standing Gallic taboo governing the private lives of public figures, said that an official announcement on the separation was imminent.

L’Est Républicain, the regional newspaper, said that the couple, whose tempestuous relationship has been the subject of intense speculation for months, were planning to make an announcement.

“Things should move pretty quickly, with divorce papers filed rapidly at the courts,” the daily said, quoting sources close to the French presidency.

L’Est Républicain said that the announcement was due last night, although other sources suggested it may be delayed until next week.

Swiss newspapers said that the 49-year-old Mrs Sarkozy was spotted in Geneva this week while her husband was on an official visit to see President Putin in Russia.

“The couple no longer live under the same roof,” said La Tribune de Genève, adding: “Cécilia Sarkozy no longer appears next to her husband, she no longer fulfils the role of French First Lady.” Le Nouvel Observateur, the weekly French magazine, said that Mr Sarkozy had poured out his troubles to Mikhail Saakashvili, his Georgian counterpart, when they met for the France-Georgia World Cup rugby match last month. It quoted Mr Sarkozy, 52, as saying: “Thankfully there is the rugby. With that you can forget all the rest.”

The Sarkozys have a ten-year-old son, Louis, and two children each from their first marriages.

A divorce settlement could be costly for the President, who declared a personal fortune of €2.5 million (£1.75 million) this year. However, Mrs Sarkozy is also reported to be wealthy.

Rumours about the state of their marriage have been swirling around Paris ever since the presidential election in May, when Mrs Sarkozy failed to vote in the second round. Her only official foreign visit with him was to the G8 summit in Germany in June, but she left before the end.

A glamorous former model whose father was born in Moldavia and mother in Spain, she was initially portrayed in the French press as a free spirit. Her role in the liberation of six Bulgarian medical staff held hostage in Libya — when she acted as her husband’s envoy — brought her widespread praise in France.

Public opinion began to turn against her when she pulled out of a family lunch with President Bush during the Sarkozys’ family holiday in America this summer. Her husband claimed that she had a sore throat.

She has made no public appearance in France since Bastille Day on July 14, sparking claims that her capriciousness could damage the presidency.

The couple’s marital difficulties first became public knowledge in 2005 when Mrs Sarkozy had a relationship with Richard Attias, a public relations consultant, with whom she was photographed in New York.

Mr Sarkozy responded by having an affair with a political journalist, and they bought household goods with the apparent intention of setting up home together. However, Mr Sarkozy was soon back with his wife. “Today, Cécilia and I are reunited for good, for real, doubtless for ever,” he wrote in his book, Testimony. “We are not able and do not know how to separate from each other.”

Asked whether the Sarkozys had split up again, David Martinon, Mr Sarkozy’s spokesman, said: “I have no comment to make on press rumours.”

United and divided

1984 The couple met when Nicolas, then mayor of Neuilly officiated at Cécilia’s first marriage, to Jacques Martin, a French TV personality

1989 Nicolas and Cécilia wed

2005 The Sarkozys separated for six months. Mrs Sarkozy moved to New York to live with Richard Attias, an advertising executive, while Mr Sarkozy had an affair with the journalist Anne Fulda

January 2, 2006 Mrs Sarkozy was reunited with her husband at Charles de Gaulle airport

May 6, 2007 Mrs Sarkozy failed to turn up to vote in the second round of the election

Source: Times archive

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