Mozambique supports Mugabe

Mozambique will not attend the forthcoming European Union-African Union summit if Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe is excluded, Radio Mozambique reported on Wednesday.

Eduardo Koloma, Mozambican Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister said the participation of Mozambique in the summit set for December in Portugal depended on the unconditional attendance of Mugabe.

Koloma’s remarks comes in the wake of similar threats by Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa — also Southern African Development Community (SADC) regional chairperson.

"Mozambique subscribes to the principles and decisions of SADC leaders and the position of the regional body was announced by the current chairperson.

"As current chairperson he [Mwanawasa] speaks for the region," said Koloma.

Participation of Mugabe at the meeting, which is expected to discuss cooperation between Europe and Africa, hangs in the balance after United Kingdom Prime Minister Gordon Brown threatened he would not attend if Mugabe was invited.

Mugabe is barred from travelling to most European countries in terms of sanctions imposed on the Southern African country.

This week Mugabe was quoted in the international media as having said United Kingdom and the United States should "stay out of his country’s business".

"Mr [George] Bush and Mr [Gordon] Brown have no role to play in our national affairs. They are outsiders and should therefore keep out." Mugabe was quoted as having said in a speech before the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week

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America’s next air war

An invitation to visit "Checkmate", the US air force’s most important and secretive strategic planning group, was an offer that, as a veteran military analyst, I could not refuse. A few weeks earlier, I had written that the air force was the supreme instrument of America’s global power, likening it to the 19th-century Royal Navy. Were it not for the USAF’s 24-hour close air support, I said, US and British ground forces in Iraq and Afghanistan would be unable to defend their long, vulnerable supply lines, and might even face defeats like those suffered by imperial Britain at Kut and in the Afghan wars.

My column ricocheted around the Pentagon’s top brass and received a positive response from General Michael Moseley, the air force chief of staff. I was invited to the Pentagon to brief Checkmate’s senior officers on strategic developments in my speciality areas, the Middle East and South Asia. Soon after, I was in the Pentagon’s 17.1-mile maze of corridors amid 23,000 military and civilian personnel. The Checkmate group planned the devastating 1991 air force attack on Iraq, and the 2003 strike aimed at decapitating Iraq’s leadership. Its austere, high security offices are deep in the Pentagon’s prestigious inner rings, heavily shielded against electronic penetration. As I walked through each new section of Checkmate’s headquarters, a major preceded me, warning fellow officers to cover secret documents on their desks, and ensuring I did not stray into forbidden areas. I wryly recalled that security had not been this tight when I was the first western journalist invited into the Lubyanka, the KGB’s headquarters. Checkmate’s staff work close to the Pentagon’s Mount Olympus, the offices of the joints chiefs of staff. Brigadier General Lawrence Stutzriem, Checkmate’s brainy commander, reports directly to Moseley, who advises the president. In the Pentagon, reporting line can be more important than rank. Unlike other military bureaucracies, Checkmate has the ear of the gods of war. Its 20-30 young, high-energy officers have advanced academic and military degrees and are on the fast track to the top of America’s most forward-thinking, smartest service.

While the army and navy plan to re-fight America’s last wars, Checkmate is busy planning the next ones. Checkmate’s mission is to "think out of the box", develop new, often unorthodox ideas, outflank bureaucracy and ensure they remain "air warriors". Checkmate officers were eager to tell me about the fast-advancing decrepitude of their air fleet, whose average age is nearing 25 years. The air force has been in almost non-stop combat for 17 years. Many aircraft, such as the B-52 heavy bombers, America’s version of the Royal Navy’s Dreadnoughts, and tanker aircraft, are older than the pilots flying them.

I asked when the Bush administration’s widely expected air war against Iran would begin. This was not a subject my hosts cared to discuss. Smiles vanished. Dr Lani Kass, Checkmate’s formidable senior civilian official, a former Israeli military officer who had somehow morphed into a senior Pentagon advisor, dismissed my question, insisting no decision to attack Iran had been made. She called a possible air war "unlikely". But I was ready to bet plans to blitz Iran were being drawn up in an adjoining office. One could feel a buzz of excitement among Checkmate’s hard-eyed officers who wore combat flight suits and tensed up every time I mentioned Iran. Pentagon sources say the air force has selected 3,000-4,000 targets in Iran, and that some US and British special forces are already operating there. However, Washington sources also report strong opposition to war against Iran among the Pentagon’s brass, and high-ranking officials in the CIA, Treasury, and state department. They view war with Iran as unpredictable, unwise and dangerous at a time when US ground and air forces are stretched to breaking point in Iraq and Afghanistan. "We can defeat Iran," insisted Dr Kass, `but are Americans willing to pay the price?"

So far, apparently not. Congress has not been renewing the air force’s fleet and will baulk at the cost of a new war. Ironically, the air force is victim of its own success. The last time US ground forces came under enemy air attack was in 1953 during the Korean war. America’s air force fights and operates so efficiently the public and congress do not understand the enormous efforts and cost of keeping American domination of most of the world’s skies, space and cyberspace. Today, the air force has no real enemies left because it shot them all down. If the balloon goes up, Checkmate are likely to target the initial waves of devastating strikes against either Iran, or, as I was told, "the next enemy of America that sticks up its head".

 
Eric Margolis is contributing foreign editor of Sun National Media, Canada

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Prepare for war

Allowing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons could destabilize the world and lead to war, French President Nicolas Sarkozy told the United Nations on Tuesday.

In his maiden speech to the U.N. General Assembly, Sarkozy said: "There will be no peace in the world if the international community falters in the face of nuclear arms proliferation."

Iran was entitled to nuclear power for civilian purposes, he said, "but if we allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, we would incur an unacceptable risk to stability in the region and in the world".

In a broader warning against the dangers of appeasement, the new French leader said: "Weakness and renunciation do not lead to peace. They lead to war."

Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but the West suspects the Islamic Republic of enriching uranium to develop a nuclear weapons capability.

Underlining French support for tougher sanctions against Tehran, sought by the United States but opposed by Russia and China, Sarkozy said: "We can only resolve this crisis by combining firmness with dialogue."

In an interview with the New York Times published on Monday, Sarkozy said that if the U.N. Security Council was unable to agree on further financial sanctions, the European Union should take its own measures to raise pressure on Iran.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner caused an outcry last week by saying if diplomacy failed to stop Iran’s nuclear program, the world should prepare for the worst — war.

But Sarkozy appeared to deliver the same message in a coded form, without mentioning the possibility of military action to prevent Iran achieving a nuclear capability.

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The new British empire?

Britain is preparing territorial claims on tens of thousands of square miles of the Atlantic Ocean floor around the Falklands, Ascension Island and Rockall in the hope of annexing potentially lucrative gas, mineral and oil fields, the Guardian has learned.

The UK claims, to be lodged at the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, exploit a novel legal approach that is transforming the international politics of underwater prospecting.

Britain is accelerating its process of submitting applications to the UN – which is fraught with diplomatic sensitivities, not least with Argentina – before an international deadline for registering interests.

Relying on detailed geological and geophysical surveys by scientists and hydrographers, any state can delineate a new "continental shelf outer limit" that can extend up to 350 miles from its shoreline. Data has been collected for most of Britain’s submissions and Chris Carleton, head of the law of the sea division at the UK Hydrographic Office and an international expert on the process, said preliminary talks on Rockall are being held in Reykjavik, Iceland, next week.

Mr Carleton believes the Falklands claim has the most potential for acrimonious political fallout. Britain and Argentina fought over the islands 25 years ago, and the value of the oil under the sea in the region is understood to be immense: seismic tests suggest there could be up to 60m barrels under the ocean floor.

Britain has been granted licences for exploratory drilling around the islands within the normal 200-mile exploration limit and any new claim to UNCLCS would extend territorial rights further into the Atlantic.

"It would be beyond the 200-mile limit but less than 350 miles," said Mr Carleton, who is involved in preparing the submission. "It effectively joins up the area around South Georgia to the Falklands. It’s a claim but how it’s handled has not been decided yet. The Argentinians will say it’s not ours to claim. It’s all a bit tricky."

Martin Pratt, director of research at Durham University’s international boundaries research unit, added: "The Russians may be claiming the Arctic but the UK is claiming a large chunk of the Atlantic. Some states might ask why a big power is entitled to huge stretches of the ocean’s resources thousands of miles away from its land, but that’s the way the law is."

Because of the sensitivities – earlier this year Buenos Aires scrapped a 1995 agreement with the UK to share any oil found in the adjacent waters – the first formal application from the UK is likely to centre on Ascension.

The volcanic island, 1,000 miles from the African mainland, sits just to one side of the mid-Atlantic ridge. No gas or oil is likely to be found below the surrounding waters but there could be significant mineral deposits on the ocean floor.

Talks have already begun between Ireland, Iceland and Denmark for the division of rights far out into the north Atlantic. It includes the island of Rockall and the sub-sea Hatton ridge. The competing claims are nowhere near final resolution although Ireland and the UK have agreed a common boundary.

Other countries that have submitted claims to the ocean floors around remote overseas dependencies have run into fierce resentment from neighbouring nations. France, which this summer registered its claim to thousands of square miles around New Caledonia, in the Pacific, has received protests from Vanuatu warning that the claim has "serious implications and ramifications on Vanuatu’s legal and traditional sovereignty". Russia was criticised this summer for making claims beneath the Arctic Ocean.

The UN body has been progressing slowly through its casework. The process of extending the normal 200-mile limit requires volumes of technical evidence of submarine soundings. According to the convention on the law of the sea, applicant states may register their rights by "establishing the foot of the continental slope, by meeting the requirements stated for the thickness of sedimentary rocks".

Once demarcated, the ocean floor may then be claimed up to 60 nautical miles from the bottom of the continental slope. When territorial rights have been obtained, states have the right to extract any minerals, natural gas or oil discovered in the annexed seabed.

There is a deadline of May 2009 for claims from the UK and other countries to be submitted, although states that ratified the treaty later have more time. "The amount of technical data required is massive," said Mr Pratt. "Australia recently submitted 80 volumes."

In the past, Greenpeace has described the process as a "land grab".

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US aided Kosovo guerilla army

American intelligence agents have admitted they helped to train the Kosovo Liberation Army before Nato’s bombing of Yugoslavia. The disclosure angered some European diplomats, who said this had undermined moves for a political solution to the conflict between Serbs and Albanians. 

Central Intelligence Agency officers were ceasefire monitors in Kosovo in 1998 and 1999, developing ties with the KLA and giving American military training manuals and field advice on fighting the Yugoslav army and Serbian police.

When the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which co-ordinated the monitoring, left Kosovo a week before airstrikes began a year ago, many of its satellite telephones and global positioning systems were secretly handed to the KLA, ensuring that guerrilla commanders could stay in touch with Nato and Washington. Several KLA leaders had the mobile phone number of General Wesley Clark, the Nato commander.

European diplomats then working for the OSCE claim it was betrayed by an American policy that made airstrikes inevitable. Some have questioned the motives and loyalties of William Walker, the American OSCE head of mission.

“The American agenda consisted of their diplomatic observers, aka the CIA, operating on completely different terms to the rest of Europe and the OSCE,” said a European envoy.

Several Americans who were directly involved in CIA activities or close to them have spoken to the makers of Moral Combat, a documentary to be broadcast on BBC2 tonight, and to The Sunday Times about their clandestine roles. Walker dismissed suggestions that he had wanted war in Kosovo, but admitted the CIA was almost certainly involved in the countdown to airstrikes.

Initially some “diplomatic observers” arrived, followed in October by a much larger group that was eventually swallowed up into the OSCE’s “Kosovo Verification Mission”.

Walker said: “Overnight we went from having a handful of people to 130 or more. Could the agency have put them in at that point? Sure they could. It’s their job. But nobody told me.”

Walker, who was nominated by Madeleine Albright, the American secretary of state, was intensely disliked by Belgrade. He had worked briefly for the United Nations in Croatia. Ten years earlier he was the American ambassador to El Salvador when Washington was helping the government there to suppress leftist rebels while supporting the contra guerrillas against the Sandinista government in Nicaragua.

Some European diplomats in Pristina, Kosovo’s capital, concluded from Walker’s background that he was inextricably linked with the CIA. The picture was muddied by the continued separation of American “diplomatic observers” from the mission. The CIA sources who have now broken their silence say the diplomatic observers were more closely connected to the agency.

“It was a CIA front, gathering intelligence on the KLA’s arms and leadership,” said one.

Another agent, who said he felt he had been “suckered in” by an organisation that has run amok in post-war Kosovo, said: “I’d tell them which hill to avoid, which wood to go behind, that sort of thing.”

The KLA has admitted its long-standing links with American and European intelligence organisations. Shaban Shala, a KLA commander now involved in attempts to destabilise majority Albanian villages beyond Kosovo’s border in Serbia proper, claimed he had met British, American and Swiss agents in northern Albania in 1996.

Belgrade has alleged the CIA also helped to arm the KLA, but this was denied by the guerrillas and agency sources.

“It was purely the Albanian diaspora helping their brothers,” said Florin Krasniqi, a New York builder and one of the KLA’s biggest financiers. He described how sniper rifles were exported from America using a loophole in federal law that allowed them to be shipped to “hunting clubs”. Armour-piercing Barratt rifles made their way to the KLA’s “hunting club” in Albania.

Agim Ceku, the KLA commander in the latter stages of the conflict, had established American contacts through his work in the Croatian army, which had been modernised with the help of Military Professional Resources Inc, an American company specialising in military training and procurement. This company’s personnel were in Kosovo, along with others from a similar company, Dyncorps, that helped in the American-backed programme for the Bosnian army.

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Deadly blast in Kosovo

Two people have been killed and 11 injured in an explosion in Pristina, the capital of Kosovo, police say.

The blast struck a shopping and business area early on Monday morning. Police said they did not know the type of explosives or who was responsible.

Police and troops from Nato-led peacekeepers have sealed off the area.

Kosovo – currently part of Serbia – has been governed by the UN since 1999. Talks are due this week in New York on its final status.

Police spokesman Veton Elshani told Agence France-Presse news agency: "The blast occurred at 0210 (0010 GMT) in the business area in which some coffee shops and restaurants were still working."

One person died at the scene and another in hospital, he said.

Tension has been rising as the 90% ethnic Albanian population pursues its bid for independence from Serbia.

The ethnic Albanian leadership and a senior Serbian team will meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

Western nations have supported the independence plan but Serbian ally Russia has blocked it in the UN Security Council.

Serbia prefers a broad autonomy package.

The US has set a deadline of 10 December for a final decision on Kosovo’s fate but Russia rejects this.
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The New Military Frontier: Africa

A US Army captain in Africa waxes philosophical. It’s like the old saying, he opines; "give a man a fish, he’ll eat for a day, teach him how to fish and he’ll eat forever."

Is he talking about skills-building, or community empowerment? No: Captain Joseph Cruz goes from channeling the musician Speech from the American hip-hop group Arrested Development back to his military-approved talking points: "the same can be said about military to military training and that’s why we do it."

The Delta company soldier is one of 1,800 based in Djibouti at an old French Foreign Legion base, and he is comparing lessons in small naval patrol boat tactics, approaches to counter terrorism operations, and how to use an M-16 rifle, to teaching a man to fish.

It is not just the Djiboutians who are receiving these lessons – members of the Ethiopian, Ugandan and Kenyan armed forces have also been on "fishing trips" with the US military.

Most Americans have never heard of Djibouti, and fewer can pronounce it correctly, but here – far from the bombed bridges of Baghdad and the flourishing poppy fields of Afghanistan – is the third front of the war on terrorism. As Rear Admiral Richard Hunt, the Commander of Combined Joint Taskforce-Horn of Africa (or CJT-HOA, in inimitable military style), explains: "Africa is the new frontier that we need to engage now, or we are going to end up doing it later in a very negative way."

As part of the CJT-HOA these soldiers are also building schools, digging wells and sanitizing slaughterhouses. Their work is delineated by the four Ps and the three Ds: Prevent conflict, promote regional stability, protect coalition interests and prevail against extremism in East Africa and Yemen through diplomacy, development and defense.

Amid the commemorations, tributes, and critiques that cluster around the September 11 anniversary, we should not lose sight of how the war on terrorism is militarizing Africa. With under-tapped oil reserves, vast stretches of ungoverned space, impoverished populations and pandemics of AIDS/HIV and other diseases, Africa is now on Washington’s radar screen. The National Security Strategy for the United States, 2006 says: "Africa holds growing geostrategic importance and is a high priority of this administration." But the most significant way that high priority status is being expressed is through commitments of military aid, training, troops and equipment.

The US base in Djibouti is just one plank in a new platform of military engagement in Africa. There is also the Trans Sahara Counter Terrorism Initiative (TSCTI), which Congress funded at $500 million over six years in 2005. There are also increased naval maneuvers in West Africa’s Gulf of Guinea, and establishment of a P3 Orion aerial surveillance station in Algeria.

And now, as though the Pentagon does not have enough on its plate, President George W. Bush has established United States African Command (AFRICOM) as the newest US military sphere of influence. The command brings together most of the continent (Egypt will remain under CENTCOM) for the first time, and according to President Bush it "will enhance our efforts to bring peace and security to the people of Africa and promote our common goals of development, health, education, democracy, and economic growth in Africa."

But the administration is mostly trying to define AFRICOM by what it is not:

Theresa Whelan, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for African Affairs, says: "Africa Command is not going to reflect a US intent to engage kinetically in Africa. This is about prevention. This is not about fighting wars." At another point, Whelan also said "This is not about a scramble for the continent."

"We are not at war in Africa. Nor do we expect to be at war in Africa. Our embassies and AFRICOM will work in concert to keep it that way," notes Jendayi Frazer, Assistant Secretary of State for Africa.

Despite these reassurances, many African nations view this move with a healthy dose of skepticism. They are expressing this view by shutting their doors. AFRICOM is temporarily based in Germany, but commanders hope to make the move to the region by fall 2008. The military seems to be favoring a "lily pad" approach of small bases across West Africa and the Horn region so as to not commit significant troops or lend credence to African concerns of a US occupation. But where are these lily pads going to go?

Zambia has said no. In early September, President Levy Mwanawasa said that within the Southern African Development Community (a network of fourteen nations) "none of us is interested" in hosting the command. The South Africa Defense Minister Mosiuoa Lekota has refused to meet with US General William "Kip" Ward, who will command AFRICOM. Lekota said recently, "Africa has to avoid the presence of foreign forces on her soil."

But, some countries are viewing AFRICOM as an opportunity. The United States has already secured access agreements with Senegal, Mali, Ghana, Gabon and Namibia. And the United States’ close ally Liberia has aggressively promoted of the Command. President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf penned a widely cited and circulated op-ed for AllAfrica.Com that hyped the Command as an opportunity for African nations. She has lobbied hard for AFRICOM to come to Liberia. The United States is also looking at Sao Tome and Principe, Equatorial Guinea, Kenya, Djibouti, and Ethiopia as possible locations.

In case none of these options work out, the Navy has a novel (and very expensive) idea to forgo land completely and house AFRICOM on a high-tech joint command and control ship that would circumnavigate the region.

Even as these discussions continue, some African nations are receiving significant increases in military aid and weapons sales; most of these increases have gone to oil-rich nations and compliant states where the US military seeks a strategic toehold. The Center for Defense Information recently completed "US Arms Exports and Military Assistance in the "Global War on Terror;" an analysis of increases in military aid since September 11, 2001. The report compares the military aid and weapons sales in the five-year leading up to 2001 and the five years since.

For example: since September 11, Kenya, which the State Department describes as a "frontline state" in the war on terrorism, has received eight times more military aid than in the preceding five years.

Djibouti, which has opened its territory to US forces, received forty times more military aid, and an eightfold increase in the value of weapons transfers.

Oil-rich Algeria, where the surveillance equipment is based, has received ten times more aid and a warm embrace from Washington.

Nigeria, the fifth largest supplier of oil to the United States, is slated to receive $1.35 million in Foreign Military Financing for 2008 despite persistent human rights abuses.

Mali is described as an "active partner in the war against terrorism" by the State Department and is a good example of a little military aid going a long way. The desert nation is slated to receive just $250,000 in International Military Education and Training (IMET funding) and no Foreign Military Financing in 2008. But, Mali participates in both the Regional Defense Counter Terrorism Fellowship Program and the Anti-terrorism Assistance program, receiving additional funding through these programs. Aid comes in other forms too. Just this week, a US C-130 military transport plane dropped food aid to Malian soldiers as they pursued armed members of the Tuareg ethnic group. This sort of assistance is not documented or quantified in any ledger or report but – if repeated regularly – could significantly increase the Malian military’s capabilities.

US arms sales to Ethiopia, which has one of Africa’s largest armies, have roughly doubled and military aid has increased two and a half times. But the nation has not received military Humvees since 2002, when it used them against its own people. During protests following the May 2002 elections, the Ethiopian military fired on crowds from the Humvees, killing 85 people. The US sold the Humvees to Ethiopia for counterterrorism operations. Will the other military assistance Ethiopia receives be similarly abused?

It is always heartening (and non-threatening) to hear soldiers speaking of their mission in altruistic terms. "The hope is to prevent another Iraq or Afghanistan by giving back," says John Harris, commander Command Senior Enlisted Leader of CJT-HOA. But, the soldiers are not there to make friends. The base had been used twice to launch incursions into Somalia (without the permission or even knowledge of the Djiboutian government).

Richard Lugar (R-IN), one of the wise men in the Senate, commented during an AFRICOM hearing that the Pentagon enjoys far greater resources than the State Department. He observed, "This imbalance within our own structure will be reflected in AFRICOM initially – hopefully not perpetually." There is no indication that humanitarian investments will outpace military contributions any time soon – especially when the justification for aid remains the war on terrorism.

The Congressional Research Service’s latest accounting of the Global War on Terrorism, of which AFRICOM would be a part, puts the cost at $611 billion since 2001, not including additional recent requests of $147 billion and another $50 billion.

For less than that $808 billion spent in the last six years, we could provide universal primary education, reduce infant mortality by two thirds and provide universal access to potable water and not just for the United States, but also for the world. These Millennium Development Goals have languished with sporadic investment and big promises, while military solutions to problems are funded robustly.

Reexamining this imbalance seems like a crucial first step. And the battle for African hearts and minds will not be won if it’s clear that it is being waged more for the sake of US strategic interests than African needs.

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Making a killing

In Nigeria, corporate commandos exchange fire with local rebels attacking an oil platform. In Afghanistan, private bodyguards help to foil yet another assassination attempt on President Hamid Karzai. In Colombia, a contracted pilot comes under fire from guerrillas while spraying coca fields with pesticides. On the border between Iraq and Iran, privately owned Apache helicopters deliver US special forces to a covert operation.

This is a snapshot of a working day in the burgeoning world of private military companies, arguably the fastest-growing industry in the global economy. The sector is now worth up to $120bn annually with operations in at least 50 countries, according to Peter Singer, a security analyst with the Brookings Institution in Washington.

"The rate of growth in the security industry has been phenomenal," says Deborah Avant, a professor of political science at UCLA. The single largest spur to this boom is the conflict in Iraq.

The workings of this industry have come under intense scrutiny this week in the angry aftermath of the killing of Iraqi civilians by the US-owned Blackwater corporation in Baghdad. The Iraqi government has demanded the North Carolina-based company is withdrawn. But with Blackwater responsible for the protection of hundreds of senior US and Iraqi officials, from the US ambassador to visiting congressional delegations, there is certainty in diplomatic and military circles that this will not happen.

The origins of these shadow armies trace back to the early 1990s and the end of the Cold War, Bob Ayers, a security expert with Chatham House in London, explains: "In the good old days of the Cold War there were two superpowers who kept a lid on everything in their respective parts of the world."

He likens the collapse of the Soviet Union to "taking the lid off a pressure cooker". What we have seen since, he says, is the rise of international dissident groups, ultranationalists and multiple threats to global security.

The new era also saw a significant reduction in the size of the standing armies, at the same time as a rise in global insecurity which increased both the availability of military expertise and the demand for it. It was a business opportunity that could not be ignored.

Now the mercenary trade comes with its own business jargon. Guns for hire come under the umbrella term of privatised military firms, with their own acronym PMFs. The industry itself has done everything it can to shed the "mercenary" tag and most companies avoid the term "military" in preference for "security". "The term mercenary is not accurate," says Mr Ayers, who argues that military personnel in defensive roles should be distinguished from soldiers of fortune.

There is nothing new about soldiers for hire, the private companies simply represent the trade in a new form. "Organised as business entities and structured along corporate lines, they mark the corporate evolution of the mercenary trade," according to Mr Singer, who was among the first to plot the worldwide explosion in the use of private military firms.

In many ways it mirrors broader trends in the world economy as countries switch from manufacturing to services and outsource functions once thought to be the preserve of the state. Iraq has become a testing ground for this burgeoning industry, creating staggering financial opportunities and equally immense ethical dilemmas.

None of the estimated 48,000 private military operatives in Iraq has been convicted of a crime and no one knows how many Iraqis have been killed by private military forces, because the US does not keep records.

According to some estimates, more than 800 private military employees have been killed in the war so far, and as many as 3,300 wounded.

These numbers are greater than the losses suffered by any single US army division and larger than the casualties suffered by the rest of the coalition put together.

A high-ranking US military commander in Iraq said: "These guys run loose in this country and do stupid stuff. There’s no authority over them, so you can’t come down on them hard when they escalate force. They shoot people."

In Abu Ghraib, all of the translators and up to half of the interrogators were reportedly private contractors.

Private soldiers are involved in all stages of war, from training and war-gaming before the invasion to delivering supplies. Camp Doha in Kuwait, the launch-pad for the invasion, was built by private contractors.

It is not just the military that has turned to the private sector, humanitarian agencies are dependent on PMFs in almost every war zone from Bosnia to the Democratic Republic of Congo. Which raises the next market the industry would like to see opened: peacekeeping. And the lobbying has already begun.

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Iraq bans US security firm

Iraq has cancelled the licence of the private security firm, Blackwater USA, after it was involved in a gunfight in which at least eight civilians died.

The Iraqi interior ministry said the contractor, based in North Carolina, was now banned from operating in Iraq.

The Blackwater workers, who were contracted by the US state department, apparently opened fire after coming under attack in Baghdad on Sunday.

Thousands of private security guards are employed in lawless Iraq.

They are often heavily armed, but critics say some are not properly trained and are not accountable except to their employers.

The interior ministry’s director of operations, Maj Gen Abdul Karim Khalaf, said authorities would prosecute any foreign contractors found to have used excessive force.

"We have opened a criminal investigation against the group who committed the crime," he told the AFP news agency.

All Blackwater personnel have been told to leave Iraq immediately, with the exception of the men involved in the incident on Sunday.

They will have to remain in the country and stand trial, the ministry said.

The convoy carrying officials from the US state department came under attack at about 1230 local time on Sunday as it passed through Nisoor Square in the predominantly Sunni neighbourhood of Mansour.

The Blackwater security guards "opened fire randomly at citizens" after mortars landed near their vehicles, killing eight people and wounding 13 others, interior ministry officials said.

Most of the dead and wounded were bystanders, the officials added. One of those killed was a policeman.

A spokeswoman for the US embassy in Baghdad later confirmed there had been an incident in which state department security personnel reacted to a car bomb "in the proximity", and that they had been shot at.

"We are taking it very seriously indeed," she told the BBC, adding that discussions were still taking place about Blackwater’s status now that they had been ordered to leave.

When asked if Blackwater was complying with the order, the spokeswoman said she could not comment because the investigation into the incident was still in progress.

A spokesman for the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, said she wanted to ensure that everything was being done to avoid the loss of innocent life and to make sure this kind of incident never happened again.

She is also expected to telephone Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki to reassure him that the US had launched its own investigation.

Blackwater is reputed to have a contract worth $300m (£150m) with the state department to protect its diplomatic staff and equipment in Iraq.

The company, whose personnel have no combat immunity under international law if they engage in hostilities, has so far refused to comment on the shootings.

Sunday’s violence followed the publication of a survey of Iraqis which suggested that up to 1.2m people might have died because of the conflict in Iraq.

A UK-based polling agency, Opinion Research Business (ORB), said it had extrapolated the figure by asking a random sample of 1,461 Iraqi adults how many people living in their household had died as a result of the violence rather than from natural causes.

The results lend weight to a 2006 survey of Iraqi households published by the Lancet, which suggested that about 655,000 Iraqi deaths were "a consequence of the war".

However, these estimates are both far higher than the running total of reported civilian deaths maintained by the campaign group Iraq Body Count which puts the figure at between 71,000 and 78,000.

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Re-segregating schools

After white parents in this racially mixed city complained about school overcrowding, school authorities set out to draw up a sweeping rezoning plan. The results: all but a handful of the hundreds of students required to move this fall were black — and many were sent to virtually all-black, low-performing schools.

Black parents have been battling the rezoning for weeks, calling it resegregation. And in a new twist for an integration fight, they are wielding an unusual weapon: the federal No Child Left Behind law, which gives students in schools deemed failing the right to move to better ones.

“We’re talking about moving children from good schools into low-performing ones, and that’s illegal,” said Kendra Williams, a hospital receptionist, whose two children were rezoned. “And it’s all about race. It’s as clear as daylight.”

Tuscaloosa, where George Wallace once stood defiantly in the schoolhouse door to keep blacks out of the University of Alabama, also has had a volatile history in its public schools. Three decades of federal desegregation marked by busing and white flight ended in 2000. Though the city is 54 percent white, its school system is 75 percent black.

The schools superintendent and board president, both white, said in an interview that the rezoning, which redrew boundaries of school attendance zones, was a color-blind effort to reorganize the 10,000-student district around community schools and relieve overcrowding. By optimizing use of the city’s 19 school buildings, the district saved taxpayers millions, officials said. They also acknowledged another goal: to draw more whites back into Tuscaloosa’s schools by making them attractive to parents of 1,500 children attending private academies founded after court-ordered desegregation began.

“I’m sorry not everybody is on board with this,” said Joyce Levey, the superintendent. “But the issue in drawing up our plan was not race. It was how to use our buildings in the best possible way.” Dr. Levey said that all students forced by the rezoning to move from a high- to a lower-performing school were told of their right under the No Child law to request a transfer.

When the racially polarized, eight-member Board of Education approved the rezoning plan in May, however, its two black members voted against it. “All the issues we dealt with in the ’60s, we’re having to deal with again in 2007,” said Earnestine Tucker, one of the black members. “We’re back to separate but equal — but separate isn’t equal.”

For decades school districts across the nation used rezoning to restrict black students to some schools while channeling white students to others. Such plans became rare after civil rights lawsuits in the 1960s and ’70s successfully challenged their constitutionality, said William L. Taylor, chairman of the Citizens’ Commission on Civil Rights.

Tuscaloosa’s rezoning dispute, civil rights lawyers say, is one of the first in which the No Child Left Behind law has become central, sending the district into uncharted territory over whether a reassignment plan can trump the law’s prohibition on moving students into low-performing schools. A spokesman, Chad Colby, said the federal Education Department would not comment.

Tuscaloosa is not the only community where black parents are using the law to seek more integrated, academically successful schools for their children.

In Greensboro, N.C., students in failing black schools have transferred in considerable numbers to higher-performing, majority-white schools, school officials there said. A 2004 study by the Citizens’ Commission on Civil Rights documented cases in Florida, Indiana, Tennessee and Virginia where parents were moving their children into less-segregated schools.

Nationally, less than 2 percent of eligible students have taken advantage of the law’s transfer provisions. Tuscaloosa, with 83,000 residents, is an hour’s drive west of Birmingham. During court-ordered desegregation its schools roughly reflected the school system’s racial makeup, and there were no all-black schools.

But in recent years the board has carved the district into three zones, each with a new high school. One cluster of schools lies in the east of the city; its high school is 73 percent black.

Another cluster on Tuscaloosa’s gritty west side now amounts to an all-black minidistrict; its five schools have 2,330 students, and only 19 are white. Its high school is 99 percent black.

 In contrast, a cluster of schools that draw white students from an affluent enclave of mansions and lake homes in the north, as well as some blacks bused into the area, now includes two majority-white elementary schools. Its high school, Northridge, is 56 percent black.

The rezoning plan will force an estimated 880 students in Tuscaloosa to change their schools.

At a meeting in February 2005, scores of parents from the two majority white elementary schools complained of overcrowding and discipline problems in the middle school their children were sent to outside of the northern enclave.

Ms. Tucker said she, another board member and a teacher were the only blacks present. The white parents clamored for a new middle school closer to their homes. They also urged Dr. Levey to consider sending some students being bused into northern cluster schools back to their own neighborhood, Ms. Tucker said. Dr. Levey did not dispute the broad outlines of Ms. Tucker’s account.

“That was the origin of this whole rezoning,” Ms. Tucker said.

Months later, the school board commissioned a demographic study to draft the rezoning plan. J. Russell Gibson III, the board’s lawyer, said the plan drawn up used school buildings more efficiently, freeing classroom space equivalent to an entire elementary school and saving potential construction costs of $10 million to $14 million. “That’s a significant savings,” Mr. Gibson said, “and we relieved overcrowding and placed most students in a school near their home. That’s been lost in all the rhetoric.”

Others see the matter differently. Gerald Rosiek, an education professor at the University of Alabama, studied the Tuscaloosa school district’s recent evolution. “This is a case study in resegregation,” said Dr. Rosiek, now at the University of Oregon.

In his research, he said, he found disappointment among some white parents that Northridge, the high school created in the northern enclave, was a majority-black school, and he said he believed the rezoning was in part an attempt to reduce its black enrollment.

The district projected last spring that the plan would move some 880 students citywide, and Dr. Levey said that remained the best estimate available. The plan redrew school boundaries in ways that, among other changes, required students from black neighborhoods and from a low-income housing project who had been attending the more-integrated schools in the northern zone to leave them for nearly all-black schools in the west end.

Tuscaloosa’s school board approved the rezoning at a May 3 meeting, at which several white parents spoke out for the plan. One parent, Kim Ingram, said, “I’m not one who looks to resegregate the schools,” but described what she called a crisis in overcrowding, and said the rezoning would alleviate it. In an interview this month, Ms. Ingram said the middle school attended by her twin seventh-grade girls has been “bursting at the seams,” with student movement difficult in hallways, the cafeteria and locker rooms.

Voting against the rezoning were the board’s two black members and a white ally.

Dan Meissner, the board president, said in an interview this month that any rezoning would make people unhappy. “This has involved minimal disruption for a school system that has 10,000 students,” he said.

But black students and parents say the plan has proven disruptive for them.

Telissa Graham, 17, was a sophomore last year at Northridge High. She learned of the plan last May by reading a notice on her school’s bulletin board listing her name along with about 70 other students required to move. “They said Northridge was too crowded,” Telissa said. “But I think they just wanted to separate some of the blacks and Hispanics from the whites.”

Parents looking for recourse turned to the No Child Left Behind law. Its testing requirements have enabled parents to distinguish good schools from bad. And other provisions give students stuck in troubled schools the right to transfer. In a protest at an elementary school after school opened last month, about 60 black relatives and supporters of rezoned children repeatedly cited the law. Much of the raucous meeting was broadcast live by a black-run radio station.

Some black parents wrote to the Alabama superintendent of education, Joseph Morton, arguing that the rezoning violated the federal law. Mr. Morton disagreed, noting that Tuscaloosa was offering students who were moved to low-performing schools the right to transfer into better schools. That, he said, had kept it within the law.

Dr. Levey said about 180 students requested a transfer.

Telissa was one of them. She expects to return this week to Northridge, but says moving from one high school to another and back again has disrupted her fall.

One of Telissa’s brothers has also been rezoned to a virtually all-black, low-performing school. Her mother, Etta Nolan, has been trying to get him a transfer, too.

“I’m fed up,” Ms. Nolan said. “They’re just shuffling us and shuffling us.”

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Communist in the spotlight

The head of the Communist Party was found to have been watching porn at a Ukrainian sanatorium.

While one powers his way through the waters of the Caspian, slaying Russia’s marine resources with a single blow of his spear, the other lolls in a jacuzzi sprinkled with rose petals, his attention equally divided between a porn channel and a lissome brunette.

That was the picture painted by the Zhizn tabloid on Wednesday as it compared the lotus-eating lifestyle of Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov with the manly pursuits of the country’s head boy, Vladimir Putin.

The swines at Zhizn got hold of Zyuganov’s hotel bill after he stayed at a "foreign sanatorium" whose mud baths he is unlikely to patronize again. Although Zhizn’s subhead makes much of the party leader’s treachery in going abroad on vacation, the word "sanatorium" and the fact that the bill is in Russian give the game away — Zyuganov just nipped across the border to Ukraine. Though he did stay in the presidential suite, the nerve of him.

    
Zhizn writes that Zyuganov paid $800 per night to stay in the suite and also left a tip of $50 in the restaurant, which the tabloid emphasizes is "half the pension of the average Russian pensioner."

But the main attack is on Zyuganov’s sexual proclivities. The tabloid helpfully blows up the part of the bill that indicates he paid 700 hryvnas (presumably — the currency isn’t given) for a cable channel called Sex View TV. And it juxtaposes this with a photo of Zyuganov with a girl in shorts and a sleeveless top. He has his arm around her shoulders, although their awkward stance doesn’t exactly scream that they engaged in illicit activities on the presidential king-size bed.

Zhizn also prints a picture of the suite’s jacuzzi, which looks onto the Black Sea and has rose petals scattered round it. Presumably, they were red for this would-be communist president. But it doesn’t give any concrete evidence, and the bill doesn’t indicate double occupation of the suite.

Personally, I doubt that a man who voluntarily goes on vacation to a sanatorium and also — according to the bill published by the tabloid — pays for a 5-day "medical tour" called Diagnosis and Relaxation, would know wild vice if it hit him on the head. With their stern staff, terrifying treatments and compulsory diet of meat and potatoes, sanatoriums would be a strange choice for a dirty weekend, unless it’s mud baths you’re after.

Meanwhile, Putin has taken up a far more wholesome hobby than flicking through porn channels, the tabloid points out on Page 2. The article, which is yet another excuse to roll out the topless Putin-as-Rambo photos, quotes "sources in the presidential administration" as saying that Putin has taken up diving and underwater spear-fishing.

Putin began diving seriously in the Seychelles this year, Zhizn’s sources reveal. And doubtless, he found a nice budget hotel with absolutely no porn channels on offer. It quotes some unidentified British zoologists as saying that the area around an island called Praslin was cordoned off so Putin could do his stuff without some crazed scientist or maverick spear-fisher mistaking him for a prawn.

The best part of the article is a piece of purple prose about why Putin prefers spear-fishing to idly admiring marine life with a snorkel. "Obviously, aimless underwater swimming and looking at the beauties of seas and oceans don’t tempt the Russian leader," it gushes.

Apparently Putin’s new hobby has encouraged him to support the building of new diving centers in Sochi and the Far East, the paper writes, quoting those presidential administration sources again. And one of the presidential candidates, Sergei Ivanov, has quite coincidentally also developed an enthusiasm for the sport, Zhizn writes.

"In order to dive, admire the sea, nature, sea urchins and crabs, you don’t need to go to Egypt," the paper quotes Ivanov waxing lyrically. "You can go to the Far East [of Russia]." Or indeed, to the Seychelles. But give Ukraine a wide berth. There be Zhizn reporters.

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French arms to Pakistan could help China

Pakistan is trying to buy French missiles and radar for a jet fighter it is developing with China, a defense journal said Thursday, and experts warned that such a deal risked the technology falling into Chinese hands despite a European arms embargo on China.

Pakistan is talking to France about obtaining air-to-air missiles from the MBDA company and radars from Thales for its version of the JF-17 warplane, Jane’s Defense Weekly said in a report posted on its Internet site.

Those missiles and similar radars also equip Taiwan’s French-built Mirage fighters, and the island’s weapons systems could be compromised if Pakistan transferred the technology to China, Jane’s said.

The journal cited unidentified Russian and Chinese sources as saying the French sale to Pakistan was "likely" to go ahead.

[…]

Alexander Neill, head of the Asia program at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in England, said he anticipated a "quite vicious" reaction from the United States if France proceeded with the reported sale.

He said there were "valid" concerns that China could get its hands on the technology, because "Pakistan is building a very solid relationship with China."

A look at the French technology could allow Chinese engineers to counter it, possibly affecting the delicate military balance between China and Taiwan, said Paul Smyth, head of aerospace studies at the institute.

[…]

Pakistan reportedly let Chinese engineers look at U.S. military equipment in the past, and experts said permitting examination of the French technology would circumvent a European Union ban on arms sales to China in place since the Chinese army crushed democracy protests in 1989.

The experts said the embargo has become increasingly porous and France has lobbied for it to be lifted.

[…]

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EU told to accept 20 million migrants

Europe must relax its immigration controls and open the door to an extra 20 million workers during the next two decades, the European Union’s justice chief will say on Friday.

Franco Frattini, justice commissioner, is to tell the bloc’s immigration ministers in Lisbon that the EU should stop erecting barriers and instead build safe pathways for Africans and Asians who risk their lives heading to the continent to find a job.

“We have to look at immigration not as a threat but—when well-managed, and that is our new task—as an enrichment and as an inescapable phenomenon of today’s world,” he will say.

“Europe has to compete against Australia, Canada, the USA and the rising powers in Asia.” He will suggest the word immigration and its “dark side” should be dropped in favour of “mobility.”

[…]

Next month Mr Frattini is to propose an EU “blue card” to compete with the US green card. Skilled workers could apply for two-year residency that could be extended. After five consecutive years living in any number of EU countries they would be allowed to stay permanently.

He is to table a law laying out minimum working standards for unskilled migrants and forming a one-stop shop for them to apply for work permits.

The Commission is about to establish a €10m information centre for Mali. Locals will be able to apply for jobs in Spain and France through a deal signed between the countries. It will be the first of several such centres in Africa.

[…]

The “reforms” could lead to a more than doubling of the EU’s foreign-born population by 2030. So he will also stress the importance of finding jobs for indigenous workers and cracking down on illegal immigration.

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Dollar at edge of cliff

The U.S. dollar is standing at the edge of a cliff, and most people don’t even know it.

Data released by the New York Federal Reserve shows that foreign central banks have been net sellers of U.S. treasuries over the past five weeks, with $48 billion having been sold since late July, and $32 billion in just the last two weeks.

The U.S. runs budget deficits each year. If foreigners stop buying treasuries—or worse, start selling them—the dollar could be in big trouble.

The reduction in treasuries “comes as a big surprise and it is definitely worrying,” said Hans Redeker, foreign exchange strategy chief at bnp Paribas, one of Europe’s biggest banks.

The Telegraph reported that, according to Redeker, the numbers demonstrate “that world central banks are in a hurry to get out of the U.S.”

The nation that analysts are watching especially closely at this stage is China. Whether or not Beijing is selling its dollars can’t be officially confirmed until November, when the Treasury releases its tic data. However, top Beijing officials have been signaling for at least two years that dollar sales are increasingly imminent.

This past August, two Chinese government officials highlighted China’s massive U.S. dollar holdings (which include treasuries) and how it supports the value of the U.S. currency. They also noted that Beijing could use those holdings as a political weapon to counter congressional calls to revalue the yuan and impose trade sanctions on Chinese goods. Chinese state media referred to the country’s stockpile of U.S. dollars as its economic “nuclear option,” capable of destroying the dollar at will.

Beijing also clearly signaled that it would begin “diversifying” out of the dollar earlier this year when it announced plans to rebalance its $1.34 trillion currency reserves, which are mostly U.S. bonds. Already Beijing has created a $300 billion investment fund to use those dollars to purchase other assets in an attempt to increase its investment returns.

It should come as no shock, then, that China would now be selling its dollar holdings.

The danger, as the Telegraph notes, relates to the fact that China holds such a large amount of treasuries. Any confirmed evidence that China was no longer supporting the dollar, and was actually selling it, risks setting off “an unstoppable stampede” in which other nations would seek to dump their holdings before China swamps the market and demand for dollars is overwhelmed.

The implications of a run on the dollar due to Chinese treasury-dumping go far beyond just the value of the greenback.

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