Germany’s actions leaves US ‘no choice’

A recent decision by German officials to withhold support for any new sanctions against Iran has pushed a broad spectrum of officials in Washington to develop potential scenarios for a military attack on the Islamic regime, FOX News confirmed Tuesday.

Germany — a pivotal player among three European nations to rein in Iran’s nuclear program over the last two-and-a-half years through a mixture of diplomacy and sanctions supported by the United States — notified its allies last week that the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel refuses to support the imposition of any further sanctions against Iran that could be imposed by the U.N. Security Council.

The announcement was made at a meeting in Berlin that brought German officials together with Iran desk officers from the five member states of the Security Council. It stunned the room, according to one of several Bush administration and foreign government sources who spoke to FOX News, and left most Bush administration principals concluding that sanctions are dead.

The Germans voiced concern about the damaging effects any further sanctions on Iran would have on the German economy — and also, according to diplomats from other countries, gave the distinct impression that they would privately welcome, while publicly protesting, an American bombing campaign against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Germany’s withdrawal from the allied diplomatic offensive is the latest consensus across relevant U.S. agencies and offices, including the State Department, the National Security Council and the offices of the president and vice president. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns, the most ardent proponent of a diplomatic resolution to the problem of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, has had his chance on the Iranian account and come up empty.

Political and military officers, as well as weapons of mass destruction specialists at the State Department, are now advising Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that the diplomatic approach favored by Burns has failed and the administration must actively prepare for military intervention of some kind. Among those advising Rice along these lines are John Rood, the assistant secretary for the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation; and a number of Mideast experts, including Ambassador James Jeffrey, deputy White House national security adviser under Stephen Hadley and formerly the principal deputy assistant secretary for Near Eastern affairs.

Consequently, according to a well-placed Bush administration source, "everyone in town" is now participating in a broad discussion about the costs and benefits of military action against Iran, with the likely timeframe for any such course of action being over the next eight to 10 months, after the presidential primaries have probably been decided, but well before the November 2008 elections.

The discussions are now focused on two basic options: less invasive scenarios under which the U.S. might blockade Iranian imports of gasoline or exports of oil, actions generally thought to exact too high a cost on the Iranian people but not enough on the regime in Tehran; and full-scale aerial bombardment.

On the latter course, active consideration is being given as to how long it would take to degrade Iranian air defenses before American air superiority could be established and U.S. fighter jets could then begin a systematic attack on Iran’s known nuclear targets.

Most relevant parties have concluded such a comprehensive attack plan would require at least a week of sustained bombing runs, and would at best set the Iranian nuclear program back a number of years — but not destroy it forever. Other considerations include the likelihood of Iranian reprisals against Tel Aviv and other Israeli population centers; and the effects on American troops in Iraq. There, officials have concluded that the Iranians are unlikely to do much more damage than they already have been able to inflict through their supply of explosives and training of insurgents in Iraq.

The Bush administration "has just about had it with Iran," said one foreign diplomat. "They tried the diplomatic process. China is now obstructing them at the U.N. Security Council and the Russians are tucking themselves behind them.

"The Germans are wobbling …There are a number of people in the administration who do not want their legacy to be leaving behind an Iran that is nuclear armed, so they are looking at what are the alternatives? They are looking at other options," the diplomat said.

Vice President Cheney and his aides are said to be enjoying a bit of "schadenfreude" at the expense of Burns. A source described Cheney’s office as effectively gloating to Burns and Rice, "We told you so. (The Iranians) are not containable diplomatically."

The next shoe to drop will be when Rice and President Bush make a final decision about whether to designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and/or its lethal subset, the Quds Force, as a terrorist entity or entities. FOX News reported in June that such a move is under consideration.

Sources say news leaks about the prospective designation greatly worried European governments and private sector firms, which could theoretically face prosecution in American courts if such measures became law and these entities continued to do business with IRGC and its multiple financial subsidiaries.

If the Bush administration moves forward with such a designation, sources said, it would be an indication that Rice agrees that Burns’ approach has failed. Designation of such a large Iranian military institution as a terrorist entity would also be seen, sources said, as laying the groundwork for a public justification of American military action.

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Red Storm Rising

A growing band of civilian units inside China is writing malicous code and training to launch cyberstrikes into enemy systems.
And for many of these units, the first enemy is the U.S. Defense Department.

Pentagon officials say there are more than three million daily scans of the Global Information Grid, the Defense Department’s main network artery, and that the United States and China are the top two originating countries.

“China has downloaded 10 to 20 terabytes of data from the NIPRNet (DOD’s Non-Classified IP Router Network),” said Maj. Gen. William Lord, director of information, services and integration in the Air Force’s Office of Warfighting Integration and Chief Information Officer, during the recent Air Force IT Conference in Montgomery, Ala.

“They’re looking for your identity so they can get into the network as you,” said Lord, adding that Chinese hackers had yet to penetrate DOD’s secret, classified network. “There is a nation-state threat by the Chinese.”

People’s Liberation Army writings in recent years have called for the use of all means necessary, including—or particularly—information warfare, to support or advance their nation’s interests.

To China’s PLA, attacks against DOD systems would be the first salvo in a long-term strategy to cripple the U.S. military’s ability to communicate and deliver precision weapons.

A big part of the strategy is the PLA’s civilian units—IT engineers drawn from universities, institutes and corporations. The PLA views these militias as its trump card and a way of asserting virtual dominance to paralyze the United States and other potential adversaries.

The U.S. military is familiar with China’s approach. In fact, its own strategy in cyberspace is similar to the PLA’s—the countries’ doctrines and strategies almost mirror one another.

It is unclear how aggressive a posture the United States is taking when it comes to defending against cyberattacks. But DOD certainly is paying attention to China’s offensive aggression, and even considering offensive actions of its own, Lord said. “But the rules of engagement have to change before we’re fully engaged in cyberspace.”

The Pentagon has made net-centricity the core of its transformation into a modern military force, and it seeks ways to create a vast web of information accessible at every level of the warfighting operation, from ground troops to pilots, command staffs to logistics operations.

China, recognizing America’s dominance in C4—command, control, communications and computers—wants to disrupt or even remove that advantage, experts have said.

If the armies of bygone days traveled on their stomachs, future armies will travel on invisible threads of data.

But the concern should not be limited to DOD. All federal agencies have to be aware of the Chinese view of information warfare.

Chinese military writings make it clear that in cyberspace there are no boundaries between military and civilian targets. If crashing a country’s financial system through computer attack will paralyze the foe, that’s all part of the new face of war.

If DOD—the most security-conscious of all federal agencies—can be attacked, can have information stolen, then other agencies must seem like low-hanging fruit by comparison.

China is not the only country targeting DOD systems. John Thompson, chairman and chief executive officer of Symantec Corp. of Cupertino, Calif., told the audience at the Air Force conference: “There are at least 20 nations that have their own cyberattack programs.” He said there is no way to know how many terrorist organizations have launched similar efforts.

But China—the largest country by population at 1.3 billion, third in area, and among the fastest-growing economically—gets the most attention, in part because it is the single largest source of cheap goods sold in the United States, including technology.

While Defense and Homeland Security department officials are reluctant to make pointed accusations, events in cyberspace show how the two countries are jockeying for position in preparation for “virtual” conflict.

From at least 2003 to 2005, a series of coordinated cyberattacks hit U.S. military, government and contractor Web sites with abandon. The systematic intrusions, collectively dubbed Titan Rain, attacked hundreds of government computers.

Time magazine reported last year that the incursions originated on a local network that connected to three routers in Guangdong Province, though U.S. officials still offer only generic comments about this and other published reports about Titan Rain.

“What I can say about this is [that] we have seen some attempts at access to our network. We’ve seen some of that from China,” said Air Force Lt. Gen. Robert Kehler, deputy commander of the U.S. Strategic Command.
   
“We are seeing attacks that traversed through China. I can’t say with any real assurance that that’s where they start,” added Navy Rear Adm. Elizabeth Hight, deputy director of DOD’s Joint Task Force for Global Network Operations.

A military attache at the Chinese Embassy in Washington insisted that, to his knowledge, Beijing “does not want” to use hackers to attack the United States.

“The official answer is, I have no idea about this,” said Sr. Col. Wang in a brief telephone interview.

The fallout from this cybercampaign continues among other agencies.

In June, the Energy Department revealed that names and other personal information on more than 1,500 employees of the National Nuclear Security Administration had been stolen in a network incursion that took place more than two years ago. NNSA didn’t discover the breach for more than a year after it happened.

Officials would not confirm for the record that the data breach was part of Titan Rain, but Alan Paller, research director for the SANS Institute of Bethesda, Md., called it “an example of the kind of attack and extraction that [has been] going on for the last 2 1⁄2 years.”

Also in June, hackers broke into State Department unclassified networks. In this incident, investigators believe the hackers, who they say launched the attacks from East Asia, stole sensitive information and passwords and planted back doors in unclassified government computers to allow them to return at will, according to a CNN story.

“Any average computer geek knows about spyware, viruses and the countless other hardware and software devices and capabilities that could jeopardize the security of our networks and the information they contain,” Michael Wessel, a commissioner with the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, said in May. “These, of course, are only the tip of the iceberg.”

And DOD is not alone in trying to keep out hackers from China and other nation states.

“On the commercial side, Internet usage and broadband adoption from China has grown,” said Betsy Appleby, vice president of the public sector at Akamai Technologies of Cambridge, Mass., and former Net-Centric Enterprise Services program director at the Defense Information Systems Agency. “Specifically considering that the Chinese government is pretty much in control, you can do the math and figure it out.”

China has existed as an identifiable society for more than 6,000 years. Its name for itself, in Chinese, is Jhongguo, or Middle Kingdom, sometimes characterized as the land below heaven but above the rest of the world.

The country has been under Communist rule for less than 60 years. The millennia-old expectation that China rules, or should rule, “all under heaven” is a permanent subtext in the country’s psyche, many Sinologists believe.

This gives the Chinese great patience; its leaders may take a decades-long view of a problem and its possible solutions.

So what the United States characterizes as attacks on its military networks could, to the Chinese, be in-depth reconnaissance.

“If you were an adversary, and you wanted to assess somebody’s strengths and weaknesses, one of the ways to do it would be to probe their defenses, so you would want to take a look at their computer situation,” said John Stack, enterprise architecture and security solutions manager for Northrop Grumman Information Technology’s Defense Group of McLean, Va.

For more than a decade, the Chinese military has observed how DOD is modernizing its troops and tactics. The first Gulf War was considered “a watershed event” in terms of how the Chinese viewed future warfare, according to the Defense Department’s 2004 Annual Report on The Military Power of the People’s Republic of China.

“The PLA noted that the rapid defeat of Iraqi forces—which resembled the PLA at that time in many ways—revealed how backward and vulnerable China would be in a modern war,” the report said. “The Gulf War also spurred internal PLA debate on the implications of an emergent revolution in military affairs, in which the conflict became a point of reference for efforts to build capabilities in command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, information warfare, air defense, precision strike and logistics.”

“There have been Chinese writings for over a decade regarding the People’s Liberation Army studying cyberwarfare and evolving concepts toward development of information warfare doctrine,” said a Defense Intelligence Agency spokesman.

Perhaps one of the most important milestones was the 1999 publication in China of Unrestricted Warfare, a book authored by two colonels in the PLA, that was generated by the PLA’s observations on Desert Storm. The CIA’s Foreign Broadcast Information Service obtained and translated it, and it can now be found on the Internet.

“The new principles of war are no longer ‘using armed force to compel the enemy to submit to one’s will,’ but rather are ‘using all means, including armed force or nonarmed force, military and nonmilitary, and lethal and nonlethal means to compel the enemy to accept one’s interests,’ ” the colonels wrote.

The book argues that the spread of IT and access to the Internet has removed traditional boundaries and expanded the arena beyond traditional warfighters.

“[T]his kind of war means that all means will be in readiness, that information will be omnipresent, and the battlefield will be everywhere,” the colonels wrote. It “also means that many of the current principles of combat will be modified, and even that the rules of war may need to be rewritten.”

The DIA spokesman said a Chinese major general recently described information warfare “as containing six elements in its application: operational security, military deception, psychological warfare, electronic warfare, computer network warfare and physical destruction.”

The PLA’s new information warfare focus illustrates a growing recognition that cyberattacks launched against the U.S. military could give China a decisive advantage in the event of a crisis.

One such crisis scenario, according to people who have studied the issue, would be the prospect of American intervention to aid Taiwan in the event of an attack from China. A 1979 law requires the United States to defend the island nation from attack.

Chinese leaders have a conundrum of their own—how the People’s Liberation Army can move against Taiwan but forestall U.S. action long enough to make it a fait accompli.

“For the PLA, using [information warfare] against U.S. information systems to degrade or even delay a deployment of forces to Taiwan offers an attractive asymetric strategy,” wrote James Mulvenon in 1998. Mulvenon is deputy director for advanced analysis at the Defense Group Inc.’s Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis in Washington, and widely regarded as one of the foremost authorities on the Chinese military’s use of IT.

“American forces are highly information-dependent and rely heavily on precisely coordinated logistics networks,” he wrote. “If PLA information operators … were able to hack or crash these systems, thereby delaying the arrival of a U.S. carrier battle group to the theater, while simultaneously carrying out a coordinated campaign of short-range ballistic missile attacks, ‘fifth column’ and [information warfare] attacks against Taiwanese critical infrastructure, then Taipei might be quickly brought to its knees and forced to capitulate to Beijing.”

This is the role of information warfare, many experts now believe: Cyberattacks on military C4 systems will amplify the effects of kinetic weapons, to bring matters to a swift conclusion with a minimum of bloodshed.

Rear Adm. Hight, of JTF-GNO, said DOD is taking note of the incursions and data extractions, and looking at the department’s defensive measures.

“Our daily efforts are all about assessing and mitigating risks. We are students of Sun Tzu and other philosophical thinkers who have a wonderful way of capturing warfighting concepts,” Hight said. “The key to this type of warfare is just what you might think of as traditional warfare. You can’t forget the foundations. You can’t forget the basics. The cyberworld relies, in many cases, on foundational concepts in terms of how you protect it.”

America’s standing as the current sole superpower is a source of internal conflict for Chinese policies, said James Gilmore III, former governor of Virginia and now with Kelley Drye Collier Shannon’s Homeland Security Practice Group, a Washington law firm. He was chairman of the Advisory Panel to Access Domestic Response Capabilities for Terrorism Involving Weapons of Mass Destruction, created by the Clinton administration in 1999.

“An adversary or partner of the U.S. … They are prepared to be either one,” Gilmore said.

Should its leaders feel it is in their interests, China would seek to “disrupt the DOD’s capacity to communicate overseas and maneuver their people,” he added.

Cortez Cooper III, director of East Asia Studies with Hicks and Associates Inc., a defense and national security consulting company in McLean, Va., told the U.S.- China Commission that the Chinese understand their military focus must use niche capabilities to counter the moves of a technologically superior adversary that might challenge their interests.

To address the cybersecurity threat, DOD and intelligence officials are playing both offensive and defensive roles.

Pentagon officials acknowledge DOD is developing capabilities to deny an adversary the use of its own computer systems to attack U.S. computer networks.

JTF-GNO is tasked with operating and defending the GIG, while the National Security Agency has the responsibility for the “nondefensive parts of operations in cyberspace,” according to Army Maj. Gen. Dennis Moran, vice director for command, control, communications and computer systems for the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

As “part of a good defense, and I don’t care if you’re defending a forward operating base in a country, or no matter what it is physically, you do a very good analysis of what your vulnerabilities are. And there have been analyses within the department to determine what we need to protect and how should we prioritize our resources,” Moran said.

“The resources required to provide that defense are being allocated against those priorities,” Moran said. “Now, I’m certainly not going to talk about those in detail, because that would certainly be an opportunity to tell someone these are what we are concerned about.”

But Moran did talk about the protocols DOD has been working on to improve its network security posture.

“If you look at the whole net-centric strategy that we have in the DOD, the focus is, first of all, identify your data, then appropriately tag that data so it can be made available to other people who are authorized users,” Moran said. “We are putting in place a service-oriented architecture across the GIG which is able to find, locate and securely move that data to an application. Security is a critical tenet to this whole architecture, because if you’re doing business one way and (another agency) is doing business another way, we are creating seams that an intruder can take advantage of.”

Kehler said DOD officials also are mandating full public-key infrastructure implementation for user authentication, requiring automated patch management and looking in the mirror to increase the department’s defensive position.

“We’re looking at ourselves pretty hard to understand where our vulnerabilities are,” Kehler said. “Sometimes we find that our worst enemy in protecting our information is ourselves. In order to make things better faster, sometimes our people leave doorways open into our network.”

The key to closing those doorways is a layered defense-in-depth strategy, Hight said.

“We don’t have a single approach. We’re trying to protect the house by locking the doors, locking the windows, making sure wires that come in and out of the house are protected,” Hight said. “Our organization is very transient, so as we get systems administrators moving around the world, we want to make sure they know they have a consistent and well-defined set of procedures that they adhere to and provide consistent protections for the network.”

To accomplish this, JTF-GNO is looking at the best way to train Defense employees on cybersecurity mechanisms, what types of protective software to employ and how to standardize processes.

Additionally, Hight said, the organization soon will release a Network Operations Concept of Operations (Netops/Conops) document, which will detail for military personnel how to secure their systems.

Hight said the document describes three basic concepts that make up the department’s larger doctrinal view:

    * Ensuring systems and networks that deliver information are available
    * Ensuring information can move freely from one point to another
    * Ensuring information is protected at the right level.

“When you go to Amazon.com, you can see what Amazon chooses for you to see, their book titles and other information. You can’t see Amazon’s financial information, because they mask that from you,” Hight said. “So the protection of information might be something as simple as where you put that information and [whom] you make that available to.”

The exploitation of network weaknesses doesn’t mean that more traditional forms of espionage targeting cyberassets can be overlooked. For instance, in August 2001, U.S. Customs officers arrested two men for trying to export military encryption technology to China.

What’s a real threat? Four months earlier, enraged Chinese hackers had defaced dozens of U.S. military Web sites following the collision of a U.S. surveillance plane and a Chinese fighter plane. The Chinese pilot died as a result of the accident. Is that kind of threat, whether from China or another country, real? John Hamre, president and chief executive officer of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes so. He served in the 1990s as comptroller, then deputy secretary of Defense.

“I was so deeply involved in cybersecurity issues when I was the deputy secretary, but have not been involved in these issues since,” he said. “I continue to believe that cyberthreats will overwhelmingly be from competent national state security elements, and that intelligence is the higher goal, not disruption.” Still, Donavan Lewis, chief of the Defense Intelligence Agency’s threat analysis division, wants the United States to think more about long-term trends.

“China has shifted its dependence away from the United States to [countries such as Malaysia and South Korea], while our dependence on them has grown,” he said during a Defense conference in Salt Lake City in May. “We’ve got to adjust our thinking, our calculus about how we put together a system of systems.”

He admits to being worried about the possibility that “subversive functionality could be embedded” in technology.

“The Defense acquisition community is not used to thinking of itself as part of computer security,” he said.

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Iran Asks Japan to Pay Yen

Iran asked Japanese refiners to switch to the yen to pay for all crude oil purchases, after Iran’s central bank said it is reducing holdings of the U.S. dollar.

Iran wants yen-based transactions “for any/all of your forthcoming Iranian crude oil liftings,” according to a letter sent to Japanese refiners that was signed by Ali A. Arshi, general manager of crude oil marketing and exports in Tehran at the National Iranian Oil Co. The request is for all shipments “effective immediately,” according to the letter, dated July 10 and obtained by Bloomberg News.

The yen rose on speculation for an increase in demand for the currency, the result of Japan’s annual 1.24 trillion yen ($10.1 billion) of oil imports from Iran. Central bankers in Venezuela, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates have said they will invest less of their reserves in dollar assets because of the weakening currency.

“What else can Japan do but to accept the request, once the oil producer sent its wish?” said Hirofumi Kawachi, an analyst at Mizuho Investors Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The tensions between the U.S. and Iran are escalating, and it’s Iran’s measure to hedge risk.”

A spokesman for Iran’s oil ministry in Tehran said he could neither confirm nor deny that the letter had been sent. Most Japanese oil refiners have until now used U.S. dollars to pay Iran for oil, said the spokesman, who declined to be identified by name because of government policy.

The yen advanced to 122.07 per dollar at 2:30 p.m. in New York, from 122.42 late yesterday.

Iran is cutting its U.S. dollar reserves to less than 20 percent of total foreign currency holdings, and will buy more euros and yen as tensions with the U.S. increase, Central Bank Governor Ebrahim Sheibany said on March 27.

The United Nations Security Council is preparing for another round of sanctions against Iran because of the nation’s nuclear research.

The Islamic republic, holder of the world’s second-largest oil and gas reserves, has refused to halt uranium enrichment that it says is for use in nuclear power plants to produce electricity. The U.S. says Iran seeks instead to develop an atomic bomb. Enriched uranium can be used to make nuclear fuel or build nuclear weapons.

Iran isn’t alone in wanting to drop the dollar for pricing oil. Russia has been examining plans to price the Urals oil export blend in rubles to curb currency risks. The nation plans to open the Energy Stock Exchange in St. Petersburg in the first half of next year to trade oil in rubles, UBS AG reported June 14.

Iran asked the refiners to use the yen exchange rate quoted at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ on the date oil cargoes are loaded. The use of yen-based letters of credit for oil “has finally been approved” by the Iranian central bank and the NIOC, according to the letter, titled “New payment mechanism for Iranian Crude Oil Cargoes.”

Japan imported 1.59 million kiloliters of Iranian crude oil in May, the least since June 2006, according to government data.

Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are larger oil suppliers to Japan than Iran.

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Problems on scale of Great Depression

The chief executive of one of America’s biggest sub-prime mortgage lenders has predicted that the current “dislocation” in the US home loan market could be the most severe since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

Mark Ernst, chief executive of H&R Block, made the comments after it emerged that Cerberus Capital Managament, the US hedge fund, was in advanced talks to reduce the $1 billion price that it agreed to pay to H&R five months ago for one of its subsidiaries.

Cerberus is hoping that “material adverse market conditions” could let it either cut the price for Option One Mortgage Company or walk away from the agreed deal altogether.

Mr Ernst attributed two thirds of that loss to the Option One Mortgage operations, bought in 1997.

Since the surge in mortgage delinquencies in America and the slowing of the property market, Option One has cut its lending by 80 per cent. It now offers mortgages worth $200 million a month, down from the $1 billion a month lent before this summer’s crisis. That sharp decrease breaches terms of the sale of the unit to Cerberus.

However, Mr Ernst said that he would rather have risked the success of the sale, and the future of the unit, than continue to sell mortgages in the current market. He said that H&R would close the unit if sale talks fail. Cerberus Capital was unavailable for comment yesterday.

Meanwhile, Freddie Mac, the American mortgage financier, yesterday admitted to a 45 per cent slide in profits during the second quarter of the year. It said that it had taken a $320 million hit over the period on new mortgages and reported net income of $764 million, down from $1.4 billion for the same period the year before.

Anthony Piszel, Freddie Mac’s chief financial officer, said: “Assuming nothing changes over the balance of the quarter, it will put pressure on our fair-value returns.”

In June, Freddie Mac returned to quarterly reporting for the first time since accounting and management problems forced it to restate $5 billion in earnings several years ago.

Freddie Mac – more formally the Federal Home Loan Mortage Corporation – buys mortgages, pools them and then sells them on as mortgage-backed securities. Although the company is privately owned, it is sponsored by the US Government and allowed to make loans and offer loan guarantees.

Freddie Mac, and its larger government-sponsored sibling Fannie Mae, were created by Congress to pump money into the $8 trillion home mortgage market by buying banks’ mortgages and selling them on.

Combined, Fannie and Freddie finance or guarantee about two thirds of all American mortgages. They are seen as more cautious than the lenders catering to borrowers with poor credit that have collapsed this year.

Nevertheless, Freddie Mac’s total credit-related expenses – expected losses and expenses from mortgages projected to fail – leapt by 74 per cent in the second quarter to $336 million, up from $193 million a year earlier.

Democrats in Congress want to raise the individual limit for home mortgages that Fannie and Freddie are allowed to buy as a way to help to stabilise the mortgage market.

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Brown won’t attend “Mugabe circus’

Britain has warned fellow European Union nations that Prime Minister Gordon Brown will not attend a planned Europe-Africa summit if Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe does, diplomatic sources said on Saturday.

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband made London’s position clear on Friday during an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers in the northern Portuguese town of Viana do Castelo.

"He told them that the PM would not be there if Mugabe goes," a source close to the closed-door talks said.

Miliband contented himself on Saturday by saying: "I don’t think anyone wants to be part of a media circus in December," when the summit will be held in Lisbon.

"There is serious work to be done and that is what we are focussing on," he said before joining his fellow foreign ministers for a group photo.

"I think we all want a successful summit, but we are also very, very concerned about the situation in Zimbabwe," Miliband added, pointing out that the Zimbabwean currency had been devalued by 1 200% on Thursday.

A senior British official told Agence France-Presse that "it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which the British prime minister and other EU leaders will attend a summit at which Mugabe is present."

He added that Zimbabwe should nevertheless be represented at the meeting.

While Africa as a whole and Zimbabwe in particular have serious issues to discuss, such as poverty, climate change and security "none of them will be properly discussed if Mugabe rolls up and we have a Mugabe circus," the British official said.

He added that there were precedents for such cases, such as Burma’s involvement in the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) despite a bar on prime minister Than Shwe attending.

An EU official said there could be some room for manoeuvre on the problem.

"You know how it goes, you send a generic invitation to everyone and hope that there will be some kind of transport problem … The Africans know very well that it is in their interests that this summit takes place".

Portugal, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, has said that it has no intention of discriminating against Mugabe.

"It is not up to Portugal, current head of the EU, to invite some people rather than others," Portugal’s Deputy Foreign Minister Joao Gomes Cravinho said at a Lusaka summit of Southern African leaders last month.

The 83-year-old Mugabe is officially barred from travelling to the 27 nations in the EU.

The issue has long hampered efforts to organise a second summit between the European Union and African states. The first was held in Cairo in 2000.

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US Jews lukewarm about Israel

Young U.S. non-Orthodox Jews are becoming increasingly lukewarm if not alienated in their support for Israel in a trend that is not likely to be reversed, according to a study released on Thursday.

Blending into U.S. society, including marriage to non-Jews and a tendency to look on Judaism more in religious terms than ethnic ones, is part of what’s happening, the study found.

"For our parent’s generation, the question that mattered was, how do we regard Israel? For Generation Y (born after 1976) the question is indeed, why should we regard Israel?" said Roger Bennett, a vice president of The Andrea and Charles Bronfman Philanthropies, which sponsored the study.

"Until people recognize that a healthy and animated dialogue about Israel is the first step to a meaningful connection, the ‘Israel debate’ that takes place in America is liable to become moot well before Israel celebrates its 100th birthday," he added.

U.S. support backed by a vocal and politically powerful Jewish lobby has been a key feature of the Jewish state’s success since its founding in 1948, an event that is widely backed by U.S. Jews and non-Jews.

But the study found that "feelings of attachment may well be changing as warmth gives way to indifference, and indifference gives way even to downright alienation."

The study found only 48 percent of U.S. Jews under age 35 believe that Israel’s destruction would be a personal tragedy for them, compared to 77 percent of those 65 and older.

In addition, only 54 percent of those under the age of 35 are "comfortable with the idea of a Jewish State" as opposed to 81 percent of those 65 and older.

It did find higher levels of support among U.S. Jews, regardless of age, who had visited Israel.

There are perhaps 6 million Jews in the United States, only about a third of them affiliated with a congregation. Of those who do attend a synagogue, perhaps 40 percent are classified as liberal Reform, 32 percent middle-ground Conservative and 8 percent Orthodox, according to surveys.

The findings were based on a representative sample of 1,704 non-Orthodox Jews in 2006 and 2007 contacted in writing. Its error margin was plus or minus three percentage points. The authors said they excluded Orthodox Jews because they tend to be overwhelmingly supportive of Israel.

In general U.S. Jews "have increasingly adopted the American idea of what it means to be Jewish — primarily a religious identity," Steven Cohen of Hebrew Union College, co-author of the study, said in an interview.

"The decline in attachment is widespread. It doesn’t depend on how you measure it," Cohen added, with the disengagement no different among political liberals or conservatives.

Cohen also said inter-marriage with other faiths had a strong impact with "younger Jews being much more likely to be married to non-Jews."

The trend is part of a long-term historic slide not likely to be reversed since "people do not seem to significantly grow in their attachment to Israel as they age," the study said.

Steven Bayme, director of contemporary Jewish life for the American Jewish Committee, a major pro-Israel lobbying group, said "assimilation is the biggest problem" with declining support among U.S. Jews, but he said it is not new.

"People growing up where there always has been an Israel" are more detached, he said.

But the study breaks new ground, he added, in finding that politics do not underpin declining support — that it is not as many assume a response to Israel’s handling of the peace process or problems with religious pluralism in the country.

Bayme also said that even though Orthodox Jews were not included in the study, the segment represents "strong signs of Jewish renewal" — children involved in the Hebrew faith in numbers far disproportionate to those of non-Orthodox families and who in the future will help counter the effects of assimilation outside their ranks, he said.

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Israel furious over Norway’s claim

The Foreign Ministry has in recent days exchanged "strong words" with the Norwegian embassy in Tel Aviv over a diplomatic document the embassy sent back to Oslo calling for criticism of Israel for allegedly using torture in prisons, diplomatic officials in Jerusalem said Thursday night.

The Norwegian state radio network NRK reported Thursday it had obtained a secret diplomatic document from the embassy urging action by "expressing our concern that torture is still practiced in Israel." According to NRK, the embassy’s concern stemmed from a report by the Public Committee Against Torture in Israel claiming that prisoners were sometimes beaten during interrogation, held in painfully tight handcuffs and suffered isolation, threats, humiliation and sleep deprivation.

Diplomatic officials in Israel said that there was "anger and disapproval inside the Foreign Ministry at the way the Norwegian embassy is conducting its business." The officials said that the Norwegian embassy was "acting in an unprofessional and very one-sided way, and that their actions bordered on hostility."

The officials expressed astonishment that the Norwegian embassy sent its report back to Oslo based on reports by NGOs without asking for any formal Israeli clarification.

The officials said that the job of embassies is to represent the position of the host government to their own governments, but it seemed like the Norwegian embassy "is not interested in what the government has to say."

"In Norway in particular, and Scandinavia in general, there is all too often an anti-Israeli agenda and climate of opinion. This type of behavior is just going to foster more blatant, one-sided anti-Israeli feeling there," one official said.

It was not possible Thursday evening to obtain a response from the Norwegian embassy in Tel Aviv.

Norway’s Deputy Foreign Minister Raymond Johansen said he was aware of the document, but had not decided whether to act upon the advice.

"We have a number of difficult cases to raise with the Israeli authorities, not in the least in relation to the Israel-Palestinian conflict," Johansen said on NRK. "Every government must exercise good judgment in which matters to raise at any given time."

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China denies hacking

China on Tuesday rejected a report that hackers controlled by its military had successfully entered a Pentagon network, calling the claim a product of "Cold War" thinking.

The Financial Times, citing former and serving U.S. officials, said Chinese People’s Liberation Army hackers broke into a U.S. Defense Department network in June, taking data and prompting the shutdown of a system serving department secretary Robert Gates.

The report came a week after German Chancellor Angela Merkel raised similar claims that Chinese hackers had infected German government ministries with spying programs.

China deflected the German reports, and now it has flatly rejected the U.S. claims, as well as denying reports that Chinese-made weapons have been used by Taliban fighters in Afghanistan.

"The Chinese government has consistently opposed and vigorously attacked according to the law all Internet-wrecking crimes, including hacking," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said.

"Some people are making wild accusations against China … They are totally groundless and also reflect a Cold War mentality."

Beijing has devoted a large part of its rising defense budget to developing more advanced technology, including computer capabilities. But Jiang said her government was also the victim of computer attacks.

The Financial Times cited one source familiar with the event as saying there was a "very high level of confidence … trending towards total certainty" that the army was behind it.

It said hackers from various locations in China had spent several months trying to tap into the system before breaching its cyber defenses, forcing the Pentagon to shut down its network for more than a week.

U.S. President George W. Bush is scheduled to meet Chinese President Hu Jintao in Sydney while the two leaders are there for the APEC regional summit.

The FT quoted a former U.S. official as saying the PLA was now able to disrupt and even disable the Pentagon’s computer system.

"The PLA has demonstrated the ability to conduct attacks that disable our system … and the ability in a conflict situation to re-enter and disrupt on a very large scale," the former official told the newspaper.

The Financial Times reported that the Pentagon was investigating what data had been taken, and a source told the paper that most of it was probably unclassified.

Spokeswoman Jiang also rejected a BBC report that Chinese-made weapons have been used by Taliban fighters in Afghanistan.

London has complained to Beijing that the weapons were used in Taliban attacks on British and U.S. troops, the BBC reported, citing British officials.

"This accusation is groundless," Jiang said. "The Chinese government has always been prudent and responsible in its military exports."

China did not sell weapons to "non-state" entities, she said.

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Chinese military hacked into Pentagon

The Chinese military hacked into a Pentagon computer network in June in the most successful cyber attack on the US defence department, say American ­officials.

The Pentagon acknowledged shutting down part of a computer system serving the office of Robert Gates, defence secretary, but declined to say who it believed was behind the attack.

Current and former officials have told the Financial Times an internal investigation has revealed that the incursion came from the People’s Liberation Army.

One senior US official said the Pentagon had pinpointed the exact origins of the attack. Another person familiar with the event said there was a “very high level of confidence…trending towards total certainty” that the PLA was responsible. The defence ministry in Beijing declined to comment on Monday.

Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, raised reports of Chinese infiltration of German government computers with Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, in a visit to Beijing, after which the Chinese foreign ministry said the government opposed and forbade “any criminal acts undermining computer systems, including hacking”.

“We have explicit laws and regulations in this regard,” said Jiang Yu, from the ministry. “Hacking is a global issue and China is frequently a victim.”

George W. Bush, US president, is due to meet Hu Jintao, China’s president, on Thursday in Australia prior to the Apec summit.

The PLA regularly probes US military networks – and the Pentagon is widely assumed to scan Chinese networks – but US officials said the penetration in June raised concerns to a new level because of fears that China had shown it could disrupt  systems at critical times.

“The PLA has demonstrated the ability to conduct attacks that disable our system…and the ability in a conflict situation to re-enter and disrupt on a very large scale,” said a former official, who said the PLA had penetrated the networks of US defence companies and think-tanks.

Hackers from numerous locations in China spent several months probing the Pentagon system before overcoming its defences, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Pentagon took down the network for more than a week while the attacks continued, and is to conduct a comprehensive diagnosis. “These are multiple wake-up calls stirring us to levels of more aggressive vigilance,” said Richard Lawless, the Pentagon’s top Asia official at the time of the attacks.

The Pentagon is still investigating how much data was downloaded, but one person with knowledge of the attack said most of the information was probably “unclassified”. He said the event had forced officials to reconsider the kind of information they send over unsecured e-mail systems.

John Hamre, a Clinton-era deputy defence secretary involved with cyber security, said that while he had no knowledge of the June attack, criminal groups sometimes masked cyber attacks to make it appear they came from government computers in a particular country.

The National Security Council said the White House had created a team of experts to consider whether the administration needed to restrict the use of BlackBerries because of concerns about cyber espionage.

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India’s holocaust

A controversial new history of the Indian Mutiny, which broke out 150 years ago and is acknowledged to have been the greatest challenge to any European power in the 19th century, claims that the British pursued a murderous decade-long campaign to wipe out millions of people who dared rise up against them.

In War of Civilisations: India AD 1857, Amaresh Misra, a writer and historian based in Mumbai, argues that there was an "untold holocaust" which caused the deaths of almost 10 million people over 10 years beginning in 1857. Britain was then the world’s superpower but, says Misra, came perilously close to losing its most prized possession: India.

Conventional histories have counted only 100,000 Indian soldiers who were slaughtered in savage reprisals, but none have tallied the number of rebels and civilians killed by British forces desperate to impose order, claims Misra.

The author says he was surprised to find that the "balance book of history" could not say how many Indians were killed in the aftermath of 1857. This is remarkable, he says, given that in an age of empires, nothing less than the fate of the world hung in the balance.

"It was a holocaust, one where millions disappeared. It was a necessary holocaust in the British view because they thought the only way to win was to destroy entire populations in towns and villages. It was simple and brutal. Indians who stood in their way were killed. But its scale has been kept a secret," Misra told the Guardian.

His calculations rest on three principal sources. Two are records pertaining to the number of religious resistance fighters killed – either Islamic mujahideen or Hindu warrior ascetics committed to driving out the British.

The third source involves British labour force records, which show a drop in manpower of between a fifth and a third across vast swaths of India, which as one British official records was "on account of the undisputed display of British power, necessary during those terrible and wretched days – millions of wretches seemed to have died."

There is a macabre undercurrent in much of the correspondence. In one incident Misra recounts how 2m letters lay unopened in government warehouses, which, according to civil servants, showed "the kind of vengeance our boys must have wreaked on the abject Hindoos and Mohammadens, who killed our women and children."

Misra’s casualty claims have been challenged in India and Britain. "It is very difficult to assess the extent of the reprisals simply because we cannot say for sure if some of these populations did not just leave a conflict zone rather than being killed," said Shabi Ahmad, head of the 1857 project at the Indian Council of Historical Research. "It could have been migration rather than murder that depopulated areas."

Many view exaggeration rather than deceit in Misra’s calculations. A British historian, Saul David, author of The Indian Mutiny, said it was valid to count the death toll but reckoned that it ran into "hundreds of thousands".

"It looks like an overestimate. There were definitely famines that cost millions of lives, which were exacerbated by British ruthlessness. You don’t need these figures or talk of holocausts to hammer imperialism. It has a pretty bad track record."

Others say Misra has done well to unearth anything in that period, when the British assiduously snuffed out Indian versions of history. "There appears a prolonged silence between 1860 and the end of the century where no native voices are heard. It is only now that these stories are being found and there is another side to the story," said Amar Farooqui, history professor at Delhi University. "In many ways books like Misra’s and those of [William] Dalrymple show there is lots of material around. But you have to look for it."

What is not in doubt is that in 1857 Britain ruled much of the subcontinent in the name of the Bahadur Shah Zafar, the powerless poet-king improbably descended from Genghis Khan.

Neither is there much dispute over how events began: on May 10 Indian soldiers, both Muslim and Hindu, who were stationed in the central Indian town of Meerut revolted and killed their British officers before marching south to Delhi. The rebels proclaimed Zafar, then 82, emperor of Hindustan and hoisted a saffron flag above the Red Fort.

What follows in Misra’s view was nothing short of the first war of Indian independence, a story of a people rising to throw off the imperial yoke. Critics say the intentions and motives were more muddled: a few sepoys misled into thinking the officers were threatening their religious traditions. In the end British rule prevailed for another 90 years.

Misra’s analysis breaks new ground by claiming the fighting stretched across India rather than accepting it was localised around northern India. Misra says there were outbreaks of anti-British violence in southern Tamil Nadu, near the Himalayas, and bordering Burma. "It was a pan-Indian thing. No doubt."

Misra also claims that the uprisings did not die out until years after the original mutiny had fizzled away, countering the widely held view that the recapture of Delhi was the last important battle.

For many the fact that Indian historians debate 1857 from all angles is in itself a sign of a historical maturity. "You have to see this in the context of a new, more confident India," said Jon E Wilson, lecturer in south Asian history at King’s College London. "India has a new relationship with 1857. In the 40s and 50s the rebellions were seen as an embarrassment. All that fighting, when Nehru and Gandhi preached nonviolence. But today 1857 is becoming part of the Indian national story. That is a big change."

What they said

Charles Dickens: "I wish I were commander-in-chief in India … I should proclaim to them that I considered my holding that appointment by the leave of God, to mean that I should do my utmost to exterminate the race."

Karl Marx: "The question is not whether the English had a right to conquer India, but whether we are to prefer India conquered by the Turk, by the Persian, by the Russian, to India conquered by the Briton."

L’Estaffette, French newspaper: "Intervene in favour of the Indians, launch all our squadrons on the seas, join our efforts with those of Russia against British India …such is the only policy truly worthy of the glorious traditions of France."

The Guardian: "We sincerely hope that the terrible lesson thus taught will never be forgotten … We may rely on native bayonets, but they must be officered by Europeans."

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Afghan rebels take back NATO areas

KANDAHAR, Over the past six weeks, the Taliban have driven government forces out of roughly half of a strategic area in southern Afghanistan that American and NATO officials declared a success story last fall in their campaign to clear out insurgents and make way for development programs, Afghan officials say.

A year after Canadian and American forces drove hundreds of Taliban fighters from the area, the Panjwai and Zhare districts southwest of Kandahar, the rebels are back and have adopted new tactics. Carrying out guerrilla attacks after NATO troops partly withdrew in July, they overran isolated police posts and are now operating in areas where they can mount attacks on Kandahar, the south’s largest city.

The setback is part of a bloody stalemate that has occurred between NATO troops and Taliban fighters across southern Afghanistan this summer. NATO and Afghan Army soldiers can push the Taliban out of rural areas, but the Afghan police are too weak to hold the territory after they withdraw. At the same time, the Taliban are unable to take large towns and have generally mounted fewer suicide bomb attacks in southern cities than they did last summer.

The Panjwai and Zhare districts, in particular, highlight the changing nature of the fight in the south. The military operation there in September 2006 was the largest conventional battle in the country since 2002. But this year, the Taliban are avoiding set battles with NATO and instead are attacking the police and stepping up their use of roadside bombs, known as improvised explosive devices or I.E.D.’s.

“It’s very seldom that we have direct engagement with the Taliban,” said Brig. Gen. Guy Laroche, the commander of Canadian forces leading the NATO effort in Kandahar. “What they’re going to use is I.E.D.’s.”

The Taliban also wage intimidation campaigns against the population. Local officials report that one of the things that the insurgents do when they enter an area is to hang several local farmers, declaring them spies.

“The first thing they do is show people how brutal they are,” said Hajji Agha Lalai, the leader of the Panjwai district council. “They were hanged from the trees. For several days, they hung there.”

NATO and American military officials have declined to release exact Taliban attack statistics, and collecting accurate information is difficult, particularly in rural Afghanistan. According to an internal United Nations tally, insurgents set off 516 improvised explosive devices in 2007. Another 402 improvised explosive devices were discovered before detonation.

Reported security incidents, a broad category that includes bombings, firefights and intimidation, are up from roughly 500 a month last year to 600 a month this year, a 20 percent increase, according to the United Nations.

The rising attacks are taking a heavy toll. At least 2,500 to 3,000 people have died in insurgency-related violence so far this year, a quarter of them civilians, according to the United Nations tally, a 20 percent increase over 2006.

NATO and American fatality rates are up by about 20 percent this year, to 161, according to Iraq Casualty Count, a Web site that tracks deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Afghan police continue to be devastated by Taliban bombings and guerrilla strikes, with 379 killed so far this year, compared with 257 for all of last year.

Yet the Taliban have been unable to take large towns this year and have carried out 102 suicide bombings, roughly the same number as last year, according to the United Nations. A conventional Taliban spring offensive was predicted by many but never materialized, and Western officials say that raids by NATO and American Special Operations forces have killed dozens of senior and midlevel Taliban commanders this year.

Maj. Gen. Bernard S. Champoux, deputy commander for security for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force, said the Taliban’s leadership was in “disarray” and had not been able to carry out the attacks it had hoped this year and would be even weaker next year.

“This has been a shaping year,” he said. “I think next year will be a decisive year.”

Afghan Army units have performed well, according to Western officials. The trouble has come when the army and foreign troops withdraw, leaving lightly armed Afghan police forces struggling to hold rural areas. Corruption is rampant among the police, and some units have exaggerated casualty rates or abandoned checkpoints.

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Fugard feels ‘betrayed’

Victory, which premiered in the UK city of Bath, paints a bleak picture of modern South Africa. It centres on a violent burglary of an elderly white widower committed by two black teenagers, Freddie and Victoria.

Fugard told BBC World Service’s The Ticket programme that he took the theme after his own home was burgled on four occasions in the last two years – the last of which involved someone he trusted.

"It gave a focus to a sense of betrayal I’ve had growing in me with time, as I looked at what South Africa was becoming and the direction it was heading in," he said.

"I compared it with what I had felt 12 years ago when, together with millions of South Africans of all races and creeds, we stood in long queues to cast our votes in the first ever democratic election.

"That was a moment of incredible euphoria, of hope, that South Africa would in fact – as it did – turn its back on the violence of its past and try to forge a new identity."

Fugard, who initially became famous through his works about South Africa under apartheid, has set a number of his recent plays in the same village as he reflects on how the country has changed since those first democratic elections in 1994.

He said that it showed how burglary, violent crime, drug abuse "and all the attendant horrors of what the world is made up of now" have reached even this remote place in the Karoo desert.

He added, however, there is a "slender note of affirmation" in the fate of the young woman, Victoria, at the centre of the play.

Fugard established his reputation when he worked extensively with two of South Africa’s greatest actors, John Kani and Winston Ntshona.

Together they wrote three groundbreaking plays, including The Island and Sizwe Banzi is Dead – performed and workshopped in black townships.

He said that taking these plays into the townships, and talking loudly on stage "about things that were only whispered about" was, for him, "an absolutely defining experience of the potency of theatre."

And he said that, though he is now 75 years old, he still writes "with the same joy and the same sense of celebration.

"Underlying even the bleak in my opus is celebration – the celebration of theatre," he added.

"I was talking to the director of the Bath production of Victory this morning – and I just felt so proud to be a member of the theatre community.

"This community stretches all the way back to Shakespeare, and even earlier. Ours is a very noble profession, even though in many cases we’ve been the outcasts of society."

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The Genetics of Race

Everyone has heard the fashionable view that race is not a valid biological concept but is, instead, a suspect sociological category. The implication is that racial distinctions are a form of superstition, that there is no justification for wanting to preserve races, and that replacement of one group by another represents no genetic loss. More specifically, it implies there is no reason for whites in Europe or America to resist displacement because we are, in effect, being replaced by ourselves.

This view is wrong on its face. Races breed true, generation after generation—Danes cannot produce a Bantu, and Bantus cannot produce a Dane—and racial differences are so substantial and consistent that two-year-old children notice them. Scientists recognize the biological differences between animal subspecies—eastern lowland and mountain gorillas, for examples—that are far more physically similar to each other than are members of different human races.

Clearly, the main motive for promoting a view so contrary to common sense is “anti-racism,” but there is one biological fact on which the race-deniers build their argument: This is the oft-cited observation by Richard C. Lewontin of Harvard that there is far more genetic variation within human racial groups (about 85 percent of the total) than between them (about 15 percent). This is true, and scientists were surprised when this fact first came to light. There have since been many outrageous misinterpretations of Prof. Lewontin’s findings, with some people even claiming that because there is more genetic variation within than between human groups, whites are genetically more similar to blacks than to other whites.

I will try to explain what the Lewontin findings mean, and how they should be understood. To do so, I will simplify some of the basic concepts of population genetics and use analogies to illustrate certain key points. Readers interested in the more technical aspects of the subject can consult the papers mentioned in this article, and an Internet search will uncover a vast and challenging literature. What follows, however, should be enough to clear the cobwebs.

First, what is “genetic variation?” Genes are made from DNA, which is made of four chemical elements called nucleotides (Adenine, Cytosine, Guanine, and Thymine, abbreviated as A, C, G, T). These nucleotides are arranged in ordered combinations (e.g., ACGTCGATGATGCA) that make up DNA sequences. DNA is the code in which cells store the information about how to build the basic chemical components of the human (or any other) body. Through a complex chain of events, the information in these sequences is first “transcribed” into an intermediate form called RNA, and then “translated” into proteins, which are the building blocks of life. Some of the DNA sequences regulate transcription, and what subsequently happens to the RNA. Specific DNA sequences with specific functions are called genes, and the complete set of DNA sequences of an organism is called its genome.

A large portion of the human genome is said to be “non-functional,” in that the DNA sequences do not code for proteins nor do they seem to have any regulatory functions. Recent studies suggest that some sequences previously thought to be non-functional may be involved in regulation, but scientists are interested even in DNA sequences that are truly neutral and non-functional. This is because these sequences sometimes vary in interesting ways between individuals and groups, and population geneticists study them to learn about ancestral relationships. Thus, when I refer to genes and genetic variation, I am referring to all types of DNA sequences that can be the source of genetic variation. How do the sequences vary?

There are differences between individuals and between races and ethnic groups. Sometimes these differences have profound effects on function and physical form (phenotype) and sometimes they do not. Individuals differ in many ways—height, coloring, intelligence, personality—because of differences in their DNA sequences, though environment also affects these traits to varying degrees. Different information stored in the DNA produces these differences. In other words, variants of the same genes can produce different effects in different people.

There are further differences between people in the so-called neutral (non-functional) gene sequences, but these do not have physically apparent or visible effects. Siblings may be very similar to each other in all apparent ways, and are similar in those portions of DNA that code for detectable differences. At the same time, there may be considerable differences in their non-functional DNA, and these differences do not show up as apparent, or phenotypic differences. Genetic variations can have no effect or very profound effects, depending on which genes they affect. In some crucial sections of the genome, even the slightest variation can be very damaging. A few conditions, such as cystic fibrosis, sickle cell anemia and alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency, result from tiny differences in gene sequences at certain key points.

There are a few genetic variations that are population-specific, which is to say that they are found in one population but are essentially absent in another (see the note at the end of this article), but most differences are in frequency: One variation of a gene is found more or less frequently in one group than in another. In some cases there are many variants of a gene sequence, in some cases, only two variants. For example, a single gene may have three variants. In population A, gene variants 1, 2, and 3 may have frequencies of 30 percent, 30 percent, and 40 percent (for a total of 100 percent), while in population B the same frequencies may be 20 percent, 60 percent, and 20 percent and in population C, 70 percent, 25 percent, and 5 percent.

People are often surprised to learn that most of the human genome does not have racial or ethnic patterns. Most genetic variation is “random,” which is to say that members of different population groups are equally likely to have different variants of most genes. This is particularly common in those parts of the genetic structure that appear to be non-functional, and do not seem to have an effect on the organism. The sum of all these genetic differences within the human species is the total genetic variation of humans.

This total genetic variation can therefore be divided into the differences in gene frequencies found between individuals from the same group, and the differences in gene frequencies found in different groups. The portion of the genetic variation in which there are random differences between individuals of the same race is larger than the portion that is patterned by race. As we saw above, the proportions are approximately 85 percent and 15 percent, which is to say that 85 percent of the genetic variation among people of the same race is equally random when compared to people of different races. For all this variation, therefore, there are no patterns that indicate whether someone is a Pygmy or an Eskimo or a European.

It is in this sense that Prof. Lewontin is correct: Within each racial group, there are more DNA sequence variants that are random than there are DNA sequence variants that show a racial pattern. It is therefore correct to say there is more genetic variation within races than between them. The anti-racists twist this fact to imply that individuals of different races are (or can be) more similar to people of other races than to people of their own race.

In fact, since there are no racial patterns to 85 percent of human genetic variation, that is theoretically possible. Purely random variation in these areas could conceivably make two individuals of different races more alike than two individuals of the same race. However, in the remaining 15 percent—the genetic variation where consistent racial differences are found—they would be as different from each other as any two typical members of the different races. Theoretically, a Chinese could be found who was indistinguishable from a Frenchmen in large parts of their DNA, but this would not make them particularly similar. This Chinese would not have the gene variants that contribute to producing light-colored eyes or hair, or Caucasian facial features, for example.

The following crude analogy does not capture the complex, real world of human genetic variation, but it does demonstrate the importance of small sets of structured data compared to a large body of random variation. Let us imagine a group of 100 boys and 100 girls, each with 100 marbles that can be any color. For the first 85 marbles, color differences are completely random for everyone. However, for the last 15 marbles, boys always have blue marbles and girls have pink. Boys and girls thus form two distinct groups based on 15 percent of the marbles; the other 85 percent of the marbles vary in color without regard to sex. This means there is more intra-group variability than inter-group variability, but this does not mean that the blue-for-boys and pink-for-girls pattern does not exist; it clearly does. Nor does it imply that any given boy is likely to have marbles that are more similar to those of a girl than to another boy. The opposite is likely to be true.

On the other hand, as in the case of the Chinese and the Frenchman, it is theoretically possible, by random chance, that a specific boy’s first 85 marbles will be so similar to a specific girl’s that this boy will have a total set of marbles more similar in color to that girl’s than to any other boy’s. Theoretically, a given boy and girl could have 85 marbles that were exactly the same color. Does this mean the two larger groups do not exist? No. There are still two groups clearly defined by the consistent differences in color of the last 15 marbles, while the first 85 are random. But if marble color is a criterion for putting children into groups, shouldn’t the boy and girl be classified together as members of a group? No, because their similarity is a result of pure chance. What is significant, and what makes the two groups meaningful is the pattern of difference in just 15 percent of the marbles.

There are several ways to look at genetic variation within and between races. All humans, for example, share a tremendous number of traits. We all have two arms and legs, one heart with four chambers, and one stomach. We all perform complex DNA replication and protein translation, and we process sensory information in the brain. In this sense, the differences between races are tiny. Much of the genome is taken up with information on how to build the parts of the body common to all people, and a lot of the rest is inactive. In the case of genes that build the parts and processes common to all humans, there are random variations that do not seem to make any real difference in, say, how a liver or stomach works. That part of the genome varies more or less randomly across the entire human population, as do the parts that seem to do nothing. It is in the relatively small part of the genome that produces the relatively small differences that distinguish races that we find the consistent genetic patterns that make Tibetans different from Maoris. Given the vast biological ways in which Tibetans and Maoris are similar, it does not take much of the genome to produce the relatively small ways in which they are different.

The same is true for the distinctions between humans and other species. Some 98 percent of the chimpanzee genome is indistinguishable from the human genome, and humans share no less than 80 percent of their genes with mice. How does the 98 percent figure square with the 85 percent/15 percent figures for within-group and between-group genetic variation? However much humans vary genetically from each other, they all vary in ways specific to our species; the two percent difference between humans and chimps represent the small areas where there is no overlap at all between the two genomes, and that is enough to account for the differences between the two species.

A different way to compare variation within a race to variation between races is to consider the African American/European American IQ distribution curves. The two groups differ by one standard deviation, or 15 points. Within each group, the variability in IQ is much greater than 15 points—from moron to genius—but that does not mean a random white is more likely to have the same IQ as a random black than a random white. The opposite is true. Nor does the great variability in IQ within races somehow diminish the importance of the much smaller, 15-point difference in average black and white IQs. Of course, there is significant overlap, so that for this one trait, some whites and some blacks are indeed more similar to each other than they are to members of their own racial group.

The similarities drop away when we compare the two races on a larger number of traits. Imagine that for each trait, there is more variation within the group than between groups; this may well be true given the relatively large range of admixture and phenotypes found in African Americans and, to a lesser extent, in European Americans. For each of these traits taken individually—complexion, certain aspects of facial features, behavior, body form, skull shape, metabolism, etc.—there will be some degree of overlap between the groups, but the level of variation within the groups will be greater than the average variation between groups. (This is a comparison of American blacks and whites, between whom there has been considerable mixture. A comparison between black Africans and Europeans would find no overlap in some traits, such as complexion or facial features.) However, when all the traits are taken together, the chances of overlap between the two groups approach zero; one will not find whites and blacks who overlap on all, or even most, of a large number of phenotypic traits. For a single trait, or a small number of traits, we may see overlap, but not for 20 or 50 or 100 traits taken together.

The same principle applies to genetic data. Looking at genes in isolation leads to Prof. Lewontin’s conclusion, but as soon as one looks at numbers of genes, distinct groups emerge and are easily classified (see next article, page 7). Furthermore, functional genes with evolutionary importance may be concentrated in the parts of the genome that are unique to different populations. When sharp environmental differences began to push groups in different evolutionary directions (See “Northwest Passage,” AR, June 2006), the resulting changes in the genome were very small, but had great phenotypic significance. These would include genes that account for differences in physical appearance, as well as differences in other genetic variants that may have physiological significance (see “Race Realism Takes a Step Forward,” AR, Dec. 2005). Race differences in disease rates and medicinal effect also reflect evolved genetic differences between the races. The large amount of genetic variation that does not follow a racial pattern should not blind us to the small but very important part that does.

Readers with a technical bent can read the online article by A.W.F. Edwards (http://www.goodrumj.com/Edwards.pdf) called “Human genetic diversity: Lewontin’s fallacy” (BioEssays 25:795-801, 2003), in which Prof. Edwards mathematically dissects and refutes the “race does not exist” fallacy. Prof. Edwards explains that Prof. Lewontin’s conclusions are “unwarranted because most of the information that distinguishes populations is hidden in the correlation structure of the data and not simply in the variation of individual factors.” What this means is that looking at individual genes is not enough to distinguish between populations; groups of genes must be taken together.

Here is an example from the Edwards paper: Imagine two populations in which the frequency of a particular gene variant compared to its alternative is 70 percent in population A and 30 percent in population B (see note on calculating variation below). If you use this one gene as the criterion for determining who is an A, you will mistakenly classify 30 percent of Bs as As because 30 percent of them have the variant that is more common in As. As you increase the number of variants you are comparing, the chances of misclassification decrease because it is increasingly unlikely for a member of one group to have a distribution of many different gene variants similar to that of the other group.

This large amount of intra-racial variability does not at all imply that whites are more similar to blacks than to other whites. It means simply that of the total amount of human genetic variation, most is randomly distributed among individuals, with no racial trends. In these areas whites are, in general, neither more similar to whites than to blacks, or to blacks than to whites; the variation is random for everyone, with no racial pattern. There is a fraction of genetic variation, however, that is highly structured at the population level, meaning whites are much more similar to whites than to blacks (or any other race) for this important part of the variation.

One more analogy may help demonstrate the great importance of looking at genetic distinctiveness rather than at overall genetic similarity. A person’s gametes (sperm and eggs, which have only half, or one “copy” of a person’s genome) are genetically different from each another. By chance, one of Joe’s sperm could have a greater overall genetic similarity, including non-functional DNA, to one of Ted’s sperm than to another of Joe’s own sperm. Does this mean Joe is more genetically similar to Ted than to himself? Does it mean Joe should be indifferent to whether Ted’s sperm are used to create Joe’s child? Of course not. In comparing Joe and Ted, the important genetic information is in the parts of the DNA that distinguish Joe from Ted, not in the random genetic variation—much of it which has no functional significance—that is found in all individuals.

The same is true when comparing different population groups. If a species of wolf were threatened with extinction, environmentalists would not dismiss the problem by saying “there is more genetic variation within each wolf species than between them,” or “the threatened species shares most of its genetic variation with other wolf species and even with dogs, so there is nothing to worry about.” Extinction of any group, including human races, means the irreplaceable loss of unique characteristics and unique genetic information that distinguish that group from all others.

Let us consider further the within-group genetic variation that Prof. Lewontin and his supporters make so much of. This “within-group” variation is present in all human populations. If all humans except Bushmen became extinct, then the bulk of human genetic variation would survive in those Bushmen. Is then nothing lost? Hardly. All of the genetic variation that distinguishes the other peoples of the world from both Bushmen and from each other would be lost. It is true that the lost fraction of variation would be considerably smaller than the fraction that remained, but does that mean the lost fraction is unimportant? No. It is this much smaller fraction of human variation that makes different groups unique. It is therefore inherently much more valuable. The same applies to any endangered species; the potential loss is not what the species has in common with other species, but what makes it unlike all the others.

Natural selection works on differences between organisms, not similarities. If all members of a species were identical clones, differences in survival rates in a given environment would be a matter of pure chance. However, genetic differences result in physical differences, which result in different outcomes and different survival rates in different environments. As Vince Sarich and Frank. Miele note in their book Race, “Simply stated, the case for race hinges on recognition of the fact that genetic variation in traits that affect performance and ultimately survival is the fuel on which the evolutionary process runs.” In other words, racial differences are real and significant: They help different groups survive in different environments. It is the unique, patterned genetic differences of groups that affect whether their members are more or less likely to survive; not the great bulk of their gene sequences, which they hold in common with all other members of the species.

Some followers of Prof. Lewontin try to argue that races cannot exist because there is variability between the sub-races within races. Thus, they argue there is no such thing as a black African race because there are substantial differences between West Africans and East Africans. This argument misses the point. There are many different populations one could call races, depending on how the term is defined. It would not be incorrect to call West Africans and East Africans different races. Someone could call the French and the Poles different “races,” so long as he was consistent in calling other groups “races.” However, at the global level, Africans cluster with Africans, and Europeans with Europeans; they constitute legitimate racial groups.

Vdare.com correspondent Steve Sailer has pointed out that the same logic applies to the concept of location. For example, Tampa is not the same place as Miami. However, compared to Cleveland and Cincinnati—also two separate locations—Tampa and Miami cluster together in Florida. Cleveland and Cincinnati are in Ohio. Both Florida and Ohio can be said to cluster in the United States. When it comes to human races, their number varies greatly depending on how they are defined. Most people define races at the continental level, and define different groups within the same continental race as “subraces” or “ethnic groups.”

Some people argue that all races merge gradually into all others at their borders, and that this means race does not exist. First, this is not true. Gradual shifts from one race to another can be found within a continent, but between continents there are distinct racial breaks. This helps substantiate the usual definition of race at the level of continents. At the same time, the existence of mixed-race people does not, somehow, negate the existence of races. It substantiates it. There could not be mixed-race people if race did not exist.

Race is therefore a concrete, objectively-determined biological fact. Race is a “social construct” only insofar as a society may label people using criteria that are at least partially independent of biological reality. For example, in America, “blacks” include people with a wide range of ancestry, and some may have more white or Amerindian than black ancestors. This American practice, the most extreme form of which is the “one drop rule,” does not alter the objective existence of the African, European and Amerindian racial groups.

Virtually no non-whites take the position that race is an illusion. They have too healthy a sense of racial identity to accept such an odd notion. It is yet another ridiculous idea whites have talked themselves into as part of their overall race hysteria. Whites take great pride in staking out strange but fashionable positions, and then concocting elaborate justifications for them. The more strikingly they contradict common sense the better. To believe and to profess a self-righteous absurdity requires high virtue and mastery of difficult, mysterious teachings—a combination liberals find irresistible. Other examples would be insisting that blacks are as smart as whites or that diversity is a strength, but the purest form of high mumbo-jumbo is race-does-not-exist.

Cracks are, fortunately, beginning to appear in the façade. Population geneticists increasingly report that people can be unerringly classified by “continental population groups,” and thoughtful readers realize that “continental population group” is only a polite way of saying “race.” Researchers like Bruce Lahn of the University of Chicago will continue to find potentially important gene variants that differ in frequency between racial groups. More medicines will appear that have markedly different effects on different races. More people will buy commercially available DNA tests that determine ancestry, and wonder how it is possible to measure something that does not exist. Commentators like Steve Sailer will continue speaking truthfully about race—even if they refuse to accept the implications of what they are saying. Before long, claims about the alleged non-reality of race will be increasingly met with headshaking, smirks, and outright ridicule.

Even liberals have an interest in grasping reality. As Prof. Edwards warns in his article, “[I]t is a dangerous mistake to premise moral equality of human beings on biological similarity because dissimilarity, once revealed, then becomes an argument for moral inequality.” Liberals have built an entire world view on faulty assumptions and willful blindness. Most will go to their graves with their eyes closed; for the rest, there will be an unpleasant awakening.

spins noданильченко юрий брониславович прокурор

Mystery fever kills 100

More than 100 people have died because of a fever epidemic in the centre of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, health officials say.

Many of the victims are people who have been in contact with the deceased, including medical staff, and who lack equipment to deal with the illness.

The latest victim was a nurse at a local hospital. She died on Thursday after taking care of infected patients.

Health officials say the medical staff had no masks and this put them at risk.

Speaking from Kananga, the capital of West Kasai region, Dr Jean-Constantin Kanow said the illness had first started three months ago, when chickens and pigs started dying – but now people were also affected.

The epidemic was affecting four villages: Kampungu, Makonono, Kaluamba and Mombo.

Traditionally, people in DR Congo wash dead bodies by hand.

The doctor said that such funeral rites seemed to favour the transmission of the disease.

He said many people who attended the recent funeral of a local chief had also died of fever and dehydration.

The World Health Organisation has sent a team to take blood samples for analysis at laboratories specialising in haemorrhagic fever.

DR Congo’s last major Ebola outbreak killed more than 200 people in 1995 in Kikwit, about 400km (249 miles) west of the current outbreak.

But health officials say it is too early to determine if this new epidemic outbreak is indeed a haemorrhagic fever.

автоматическая насоснаялобановский александр игоревич