In recent weeks Washington DC has been rocked by a sex scandal. A Republican member of Congress, Mark Foley, was accused of soliciting underage pages (teenagers who work as aides to members of Congress) by sending them emails with explicit sexual content. Foley, who was known as a campaigner for "values", was exposed as a hypocrite when copies of the emails were published on the blog "Stop Sex Predators" before it was picked up by ABC news and broadcast nationally.Arguments about the allegations have now descended to their predictable low, namely, who knew what when, and who should be blamed. Republican members of Congress are busy arranging themselves into a firing squad taking aim at one another, and soon the shooting will start in earnest, with members of the Democratic Party looking on in bemusement, if not amazement.
These events would have been tragicomic and provided humorous relief from the drudgery of everyday life, given normal circumstances. But these are not normal days, and while American politicians are twisting themselves into knots about the scandal, the rest of the world is busy moving on to an apparently inevitable destination.
The depth and viciousness of the reaction to Foley’s transgressions also illustrate that Americans have psychologically progressed beyond September 11, 2001, and that the perception is taking hold that the War on Terror has become at best a distraction, and at worst an unnecessary drain on national resources. The fact remains that the consequences of the Foley scandal may well influence the perception and actions of Americans in world affairs, and in particular in the War on Terror.
The timing of the Foley scandal will almost certainly drastically affect the upcoming elections for Members of Congress on November 7, 2006. The Republican Party, which enjoys small majorities in both Houses of Congress was expected to hang onto reduced majorities, but the Foley scandal and the increasing unpopularity of the Bush administration, have almost certainly swung the election in favour of the Democratic Party.
Observers are generally of the opinion that a change of majority party in the American Congress will have dramatic consequences internationally. A major rift is developing in American society on the issue of the War on Terror, and particularly, about the war in Iraq. While the White House still claims that the war is being won, there is a pervasive pessimism about the War, and rumour has it that even insiders in the White House and in Congress are privately expressing their doubts.
On the left of the political spectrum the Democratic Party is positioning itself to present the war as similar to the war in Vietnam. From this perspective the war cannot be won, and a speedy withdrawal is necessary to save lives and to spare America a humiliating and inevitable defeat.
On the right the Republican Party argues that the war is in the American interest. Handing over the battlefield in Iraq to Muslim extremists, they argue, would simply move the conflict from the Middle East to the Home Front. After all, September 11, 2001, was an attack on the Home Front, and by invading Iraq, the conflict was transposed to the Middle East.
The war is now dragging through its fourth year, and American casualties are mounting, surpassing 2000 in 2006. Material losses, the deaths of countless civilians, and a determined insurgency mounted by foreign Muslims, are the hallmarks of this conflict. American intentions to dethrone Sadam Hussein and to turn Iraq into a democratic state seem now like the naïve dreams of a teenager.
The situation in Afghanistan may appear more hopeful, but is in reality not much better than in Iraq. Dead and wounded Canadian and other NATO soldiers are becoming a reality of the West’s attempts at pacifying the country, and Pakistan is becoming more open in its de facto support of the Taliban while covert Pakistani support of insurgents represents a major headache for Western soldiers.
Thus, while the fascination and accusations regarding Foley’s sexually predatory behaviour towards teenage pages are capturing American attention, the War on Terror drags on and a Congressional election is looming with an outcome which will probably be decided by the Foley scandal, with the result that the War on Terror will be either scaled down significantly, or perhaps even abandoned.
This is the stuff of small random events having major and lasting consequences.
That the war in Iraq has deeply divided Americans is becoming clearer with each passing month. A nascent anti-war movement is starting up, paradoxically initially led by Cindy Sheehan, the mother of a dead American soldier. While some European Powers are directly involved in Afghanistan under NATO command, Europeans generally do not have the desire to become further involved in Iraq, and repeated American requests for more soldiers to add to the 144,000 American soldiers already deployed in Iraq and in Afghanistan have fallen on deaf ears. In fact, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have become more or less a war between an Anglo Alliance and Muslim insurgents, with the rest of the world looking on in either bewilderment, or bemusement, depending on their points of view.
Can America defeat the Iraqi insurgency and create a democratic Iraq, the goals they set for themselves in 2003? Probably not, and with a predicted Democratic Party victory in the upcoming Congressional elections, one may expect Americans to start planning a withdrawal – if not under the leadership of President Bush, then under his successor. The American public is increasingly against the Iraq war, and the anti-war movement is likely to grow over the next couple of years. One may also expect, all things remaining as they are, that the next American Presidential election will be influenced and perhaps be decided by the war effort.
What does this all prove? First, that Osama bin Laden and his enablers were correct when they predicted that the West cannot fight a prolonged war. Western attention spans are short, and modern Westerners generally have a singular inability to maintain a difficult course, even if it is in their own interest.
Secondly, this proves that the warnings of demographers that Western population decline will have dramatic affects on the ability of the West to project power in other regions of the world, were correct. America is being proven impotent by a rag-tag army of ill-trained and ill-equipped insurgents, and it appears that the time has ended when European and American governments could project power at will into every corner of the world. Perhaps the defeat of the Russians by the Mujahaddin in Afghanistan was a precursor to the current troubles Western forces face, and NATO is not faring any better in their attempt to subjugate and pacify Muslim radicals in that part of the world.
Thirdly, it proves the self-evident truth that only demographically robust societies can fight limitless wars. The suffering and heartache of small families in the West whose only sons are killed in far-flung corners of the world have a much more severe impact on their societies than the deaths of Muslim insurgents of demographically strong societies who fought for perceived liberation within their own countries. In addition, their more robust demographics ensure a virtually limitless supply of fighters. If the West can fight for 5 years, then these societies can fight for 50, and still be ready for the next battle.
Fourthly, the changing demographics in Western countries, with their own surging Muslim populations, is having an effect on the perception of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars in the Western mind. Muslim citizens of Western nations are joining and influencing the debate with respect to the War on Terror, and their surging demography will likely increase their influence on both international and domestic policy. Anti-Muslim activities in Western countries are on the increase, but it will be difficult for "indigenous" Westerners to turn the demographic tide. Projections of a "Londonistan" and "Eurabia" by Western observers and authors seem accurate, and this will change post-Christian Western countries and Westerners fundamentally.
Fifthly, the war in Iraq and the inability of the Americans to project their power must paint a disquieting picture for the Israelis. An American defeat in Iraq will prove American impotence and embolden anti-Israel sentiments in the region. As America withdraws from the region, more will Americans will question their involvement in the Middle East and their historical support for Israel. Already, prominent American lawmakers are questioning the involvement of America in the international sphere, and they are pleading for a more isolationist stance or a complete American withdrawal from the international arena. This will mean that America’s allies will be abandoned, and Israel, still reeling from her (mis)adventure in Lebanon earlier this year, must be concerned about the developments and inability of America in Iraq.
That the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan may be decided by the sexual escapades of a relatively unknown American Congressman is indeed ironic, and is surely a sign of American and Western decadence. Al Qa’ida declared war against the West, and their sympathizers claimed that the West has become too decadent to fight a prolonged war.
The testing grounds for the recipe followed by the Muslim and Al Qa’ida insurgents in Afghanistan and in Iraq, in my opinion, were the African wars of liberation, fought after the Second World War between Portuguese, Rhodesian and South African forces on the one side, and nationalist African insurgents on the other side. In all these wars a weak and often divided insurgency was time and again definitively defeated in battle, yet they all eventually prevailed by achieving all their goals, and some more.
Muslim insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq would know that their efforts are not wasted, and that time is on their side. As ZANU-PF and Frelimo and the ANC marched to victory to prove that ill-trained and ill-equipped insurgents can defeat well-trained, well-armed and motivated armies, the Muslim insurgents are following a proven recipe, and it is obvious who will prevail in the long run.