Goolam Ballim, the group economist at Standard Bank, said the inclusion would be a constructive gesture. "There is increasing recognition that, in their current format, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund will become irrelevant if they don’t evolve to include both leadership and opinion of emerging markets, and the same is true of other international groupings."
Bloomberg reported that Sarkozy, in his first major foreign policy speech yesterday, proposed the inclusion of China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa in the G8. Sarkozy’s call flies in the face of the position adopted by the body’s chairman, Angela Merkel. The German chancellor has opposed the extension of G8 membership.
Ballim added that the inclusion of emerging market leaders would give credibility to global dialogue. "It is recognition that, for global dialogue to have a genuine meaning, the leading emerging economies do need a seat at the table. South Africa can be a meaningful voice for Africa’s interest at the altar of global dialogue."
Steve Friedman, a research associate at Idasa, holds a similar view. "It would create a platform for a more equal conversation about international trade."
But Garth le Pere, the executive director of the Institute for Global Dialogue, said it would not be in South Africa’s interests to join the G8 as this would compromise its position "as a strong proponent of South-South co-operation".
Finance minister Trevor Manuel, who has played a high-profile role in engagements between the developed and developing worlds, would not comment, said national treasury spokesperson Thoraya Pandy. She referred inquiries to the presidency, which also declined to comment, referring all questions to foreign affairs, which could not be reached.
The G8 is an informal, but powerful, grouping of the world’s seven leading industrialised countries – the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Canada and Italy – and Russia. While the size of gross domestic product (GDP) is no longer a major qualification for membership, it did determine the original membership in 1975.
South Africa’s inclusion would break the mould. Cees Bruggemans, the chief economist at First National Bank, said South Africa, with an economy worth only $280 billion (R2 trillion), was far smaller than the G8 members.
The World Bank’s July 2007 development indicators show South Africa has the 27th-biggest GDP. Russia, the smallest of the G8 economies, has a GDP of $986 billion, while the biggest is the US, with an economy worth $13.2 trillion. After South Africa, Mexico is the smallest of the proposed entrants, with GDP of $839 billion.
Ballim said, however, that South Africa "can be seen to represent the considered opinion of emerging markets and also is a beachhead for Africa. Even though Africa comprises less than 3.3 percent of global GDP and 2.5 percent of world exports, it houses at least 13 percent of the world’s population."
Bruggemans added that global institutional arrangements were changing daily as emerging markets gained in stature.
Peter Draper, a research fellow at the SA Institute of International Affairs, said an important question was whether the other members would accept the inclusion of the five countries. And he pointed out that China was not a democracy, which is seen as a precondition for membership.
A South African-based observer commented that it was unlikely there would be support from other members, except for the UK.
Bloomberg said Sarkozy’s comments came two months after the last G8 meeting established the Heiligendamm Process, in which Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa would have regular, formal talks with the G8. Previous invitations tended to be ad hoc.